873
FXHW60 PHFO 021411
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
411 AM HST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Stable and dry conditions with light southeasterly background
winds will continue into Wednesday. Expect daytime sea breezes
and nighttime land breezes during this time. A weakening front
will approach from the northwest, increasing chances of showers for
the western islands Wednesday. Trade winds will build back into
the region Thursday onward, returning a more typical trade wind
pattern off passing showers along windward and mountain areas
especially during the overnight to early morning hours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows a band of clouds associated with a
weakening frontal boundary roughly 500 miles northwest of Kauai
early this morning. High clouds ahead of the front continue to
break apart and thin out over the state. Meanwhile, a high
pressure ridge remains in place over the island chain, which will
result in yet another day of stable conditions and light
southeasterly background winds. This morning soundings show
inversion heights between 5 to 6 kft from Kauai to Hilo,
respectively. Mainly scattered light showers can be seen passing
over windward and mauka areas of the the Big Island and Maui early
this morning. Given the light background flow, can expect daytime
sea breezes to increased interior clouds over the islands this
afternoon and clear tonight as land breeze circulations resume.

Global models continue to show the front mentioned above to gradually
weaken as it approaches over the state through today and possibly
moving over Kauai Wednesday before stalling. As this occurs,
shower activity will likely increase over Niihau and Kauai for 12
to 24 hours, until the front breaks apart and slowly retrogrades
westward away from the islands. Differences between the various
global models remain, with the ECMWF notably showing wetter trends
for the islands in Kauai County. The GFS, however, continues to
favor a drier solution where the weakening boundary stalls and
then moves back westward away from the state before reaching the
Garden Isle. Mid and upper level ridging will remain over the
state limiting cloud height, thus not expecting any significant
heavy rainfall with this event.

A surface high pressure system northeast of the state will
gradually build as the remnant weakens west of the state
Thursday. This will strengthen wind speeds from east to west
across the state and back winds to more of an easterly direction
by Thursday night into next weekend. Expect more of a typical
trade wind shower pattern to return during this time with brief
passing showers forecast along windward and mountain areas,
favoring the overnight to early morning hours each day.


&&

.AVIATION...

A light south to southeasterly wind regime will continue into
Wednesday as a front approaches the state from the northwest.
Expect daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes to occur.
Mostly VFR conditions are expected under a relatively dry and
stable air mass through today. Brief MVFR conditions are
possible mainly along exposed windward areas this morning due a
band of clouds and embedded showers moving through. Localized MVFR
conditions may also occur along leeward and interior areas this
afternoon as seabreezes develop. A thinning veil of high clouds
will break apart as it moves west to east across the state today.

No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.


&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface ridge will remain over the area today and maintain
light to moderate southeast background flow. This pattern will
allow for daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes along
waters adjacent to the coasts. A cold front, currently around 400
NM northwest of the state, is forecast to approach Kauai on
Wednesday, then stall and weaken into a trough by Thursday. The
trough is projected to retrograde back westward, away from the
state. Late Thursday through this weekend, a ridge of high
pressure building north of the region will bring a return of
moderate to locally strong easterly trades. A Small Craft
Advisory may be need for the typical windier zones surrounding
Maui and the Big Island.

The current moderate, medium period, northwest swell (310-330)
will continue to slowly lose energy today. Thus, the High Surf
Advisory was cancelled earlier this morning for all islands. A
series of northwest to north- northwest (310-340 degree) swells
are expected during the second half of the week, with each pulse
becoming slightly bigger and veering with each passing day. The
first pulse, a medium period northwest swell, will begin to fill
in on Wednesday, and generate surf just shy of advisory levels.
A slightly larger and longer period pulse is expected on Thursday
out of the northwest followed by a slightly larger north-
northwest on Friday. Surf heights should exceed advisory
thresholds Thursday through through Saturday, with the peak
approaching warning levels late Thursday into Friday. A Small
Craft Advisory for combined seas (10+ ft) affecting exposed waters
may be needed during the peak of the event.

East shore surf will remain small through Thursday due to weak
winds, then become choppier as trade winds increase Friday through
the weekend. Expect minimal background energy for south facing
shores through much of the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this week.
Although stable and dry conditions will persist through Wednesday,
winds will remain below critical fire weather thresholds. Locally
breezy trades will return during the second half of the week, but
increased relative humidity is expected.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza