334
FXHW60 PHFO 110157
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
357 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Drier easterly flow will filter in today into Friday, bringing a
return of a typical trade wind pattern through early next week.
Another influx of tropical moisture is possible towards the
middle of next week as a disturbance potentially moves into the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon satellite water vapor imagery shows the last of the
tropical moisture lingering from Lowell has moved off to the
southwest. Light showers continue along the windward side of the
Big Island, with otherwise partly to mostly cloudy condittions
across the state.

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged into early next
week with a broad upper level low well to the northeast. Drier
air will filter in on the back side of this low into Friday,
allowing for dew points to lower back into the mid 60s in the
lower elevations by Friday. Trade winds will slowly build in today
and prevail into early next week. More typical afternoon and
evening showers can be expected on the windward sides of the
islands. Towards the middle of next week, the upper level low
weakens and lifts northeast and high pressure begins to expand
westward across the state. A weak disturbance could bring an
increase in moisture by Thursday, though there`s considerable
spread in ensemble precipitable water due to differences in the
track of the disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...

Trade winds are growing gusty in places, and this combined with
lingering moisture has allowed for ongoing showers this afternoon
into this evening. Satellite shows a mix of clear skies to mostly
cloudy skies, resulting in ceilings generally ranging from VFR to
MVFR. The lower ceilings, and at times reduced visibility are
possible at times due to the showers and clouds, however,
expecting conditions to gradually improve with a drying trend into
the evening and overnight.

AIRMET Sierra remains for the Big Island, Maui, Oahu and Kauai
through at least 04Z. Light spotty afternoon to evening showers
continue to be possible into this evening. However, drying trade
winds will likely end the showers and reduce clouds significantly
for tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return tonight as a
weak trough orientated north to south shifts west of Kauai.
A couple of troughs far northeast and southeast will keep a
weak pressure gradient across the state through the weekend. The
trough from the southeast will near the state Saturday allowing
winds to shift out of the northeast through early next week.

A moderate mid-period south swell will continue to steadily
decline over the next few days with below average surf expected by
the weekend. Background southerly swells will keep surf from
going flat over the weekend into early next week. A Gale low just
east Australia will shift east of New Zealand over the next
couple of days in a more favorable position for more consistent
south swells for Hawaii late next week. Forerunners from the
captured fetch from this system could start trickling in by mid
week and gradually build through the rest of the week into next
weekend, generating above average surf.

Near seasonal average surf generated by former tropical cyclones
will gradually fade to below average by Saturday and hold into
early next week as trades locally and upstream remain disrupted.

Tiny surf along north facing shores as Lowell will drop tonight as
the small swell from Lowell continues to fade.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026


Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light
winds and lingering moisture. Expect a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the Big Island this afternoon. Temperature
inversion heights are expected to remain elevated or weak.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SS
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...SS