089
FXHW60 PHFO 271918
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
918 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands
will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds today
with periods of showers favoring windward mountain areas in the
overnight and early morning hours. Hurricane Fausto remains on
track to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a tropical storm. A drier and breezy trade wind
weather pattern will return across the state from Thursday onward
as Fausto drifts westward away from the Hawaiian Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

Satellite imagery reveals bands of showers over the eastern
offshore waters from increased moisture associated with Hurricane
Fausto, centered about 580 mi east of Hilo as of 5 am. These
showers will begin to move onshore later today, increasing
precipitation for windward and mauka locations this evening and
overnight. Total rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning could
amount to up to half an inch to one inch of rain for localized
mauka areas. Dew points increase into the lower to mid 70s this
evening and tonight, which will make for muggy conditions on
Tuesday and Wednesday whilst Fausto passes north of the islands as
a tropical storm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently (3am), satellite and radar imagery shows low clouds and
scattered showers moving in on the trades. Showers are primarily
impacting windward and mauka spots with a few showers making into
leeward locations. High pressure northwest of the state will
maintain trades today.

East of the state Hurricane Fausto continues moving west-northwest.
Fausto is expected to track north of the state Tuesday into
Wednesday. The environment ahead of Fausto grows more unfavorable
on approach to the islands and we expect it to weaken into a
tropical storm before arrival in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands. That said, we remain cautious at this stage that even
subtle southern shifts in the track or delayed weakening trends
may still produce changes to our island by island impacts. We
strongly encourage the public to pay close attention to this
passing storm system as weather impacts over the Hawaiian Islands
will evolve the closer Fausto gets.

High confidence Fausto impacts include: high surf possibly above
warning thresholds for east facing shores today through Tuesday.
A High Surf Advisory is already in effect for east facing shores
through Wednesday, with the possibility of an upgrade to a
warning. Lesser confidence impacts include: strong winds to
around 40 mph may develop near and north of the low center and
possible heavy rain threats from Tuesday through Wednesday.

No time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness
plans, and ensure every household has at least a 14 day supply of
food and water available if needed during this years active hurricane
season.

As Fausto continues to move away from the state, a drier and more
stable breezy trade wind pattern will fill in from Thursday
onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trades will weaken slightly and back towards the northeast today,
then weaken further Tuesday. Typical trade wind showers with low
ceilings are expected over windward and mauka areas with limited
spillover into leeward areas. MVFR conditions are likely in
heavier showers, but otherwise we will see VFR. Hurricane Fausto
is east of the state moving WNW and is forecast to pass to the
north Tuesday night through Wednesday night. TC SIGMET Sierra
covers Fausto.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of
the smaller islands. Conds may improve late this morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turbulence
downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET may be dropped this
afternoon as winds continue to decline.

&&

.MARINE...

An overnight ASCAT pass revealed that locally breezy trade winds
continue to prevail over the region, especially in the typically
winder waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these
areas through this afternoon. The fresh to locally breezy trades
will gradually shift to the NNE and diminish through the middle of
the week in response to what is currently Hurricane Fausto
passing north of the islands. However, it is likely that the Small
Craft Advisory will need to be expanded due to seas greater than
10 feet for windward waters. The trades will then return to fresh
and strong levels late this week into the weekend as the remnants
of Fausto continue off to the west-northwest away from the state
and strong high pressure builds to the north.

Nearshore buoys on the eastern side of the islands have shown an
uptick this morning with the medium and long period energy. The
High Surf Advisory for east facing shores was upgraded to a
High Surf Warning as the buoys are running above model guidance
and surf is expected to build through the day and tomorrow. The
High Surf Warning is in effect through Wednesday afternoon. A
Coastal Flood statement may be also be needed during the peak of
the large surf for vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways, docks,
boat ramps, and other coastal infrastructure exposed to the large
east swell. After a brief lull late Wednesday through Thursday,
east shore surf will trend back up Friday into the weekend due to
a combination of rising trade wind swell and a new long period
east swell generated by Hurricane Genevieve.

The current long-period south swell will remain elevated today
before slowly declining through the week.

Surf along N shores could also see some brief increase as Fausto
(or its remnants) pass near the region Tuesday and Wednesday, then
return to typical flat to tiny levels late Wednesday into the
weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East-
Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East-
Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-
Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-
Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui
County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...Tsamous
SHORT TERM UPDATE...Quesada