278
FXHW60 PHFO 310151
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
351 PM HST Fri Oct 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will focus clouds and showers over windward
and mauka areas through Saturday, along with allowing for the
development of typical afternoon showers over the kona slopes of
the Big Island. The tail end of a front will try to move down the
island chain late Sunday through Monday, bringing breezy
northeasterly trades and drier air in its wake. Then breezy
easterly trades will bring periods of windward and mauka showers
through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar and satellite imagery show moderate trade winds focusing
low clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas across the
state this afternoon as trades finally fill in across the Big
Island. With abundant tropical moisture lingering over the region,
isolated heavy downpours will remain possible over the Big Island
through this evening, where the greatest moisture and instability
persist. Heading into Friday, model soundings show more stable
conditions developing, leading to a more typical trade wind
pattern through the weekend with shallow passing windward and
mauka showers.

The next pattern change arrives late Sunday into Monday as an
upper-level trough sweeps across the north-central Pacific and the
tail end of a frontal boundary attempts to push down the island
chain. An increase in windward and mauka showers can be expected
ahead of and along this boundary, with breezy northeast winds and
drier air filtering in its wake as high pressure builds to the
north. This will bring welcome relief from this week`s muggy
conditions, with dew points projected to drop into the lower 60s
on Monday and Tuesday.

The surface high north of the state will become elongated as a
broad low pressure system tracks across the North Pacific,
maintaining breezy easterly trades across the islands through the
workweek. As batches of moisture filter through on the trades,
periods of enhanced windward and mauka showers can be expected.
One of these upticks in shower activity looks to occur midweek as
increased moisture moves in on the trade wind flow and a weak
mid-level shortwave trough adds some instability as it sweeps
across from the east.

By next weekend, noticeable model spread emerges between the GFS
and ECMWF. While trade winds look to persist, questions remain
regarding their strength and how much moisture theyll bring to
the area. The GFS continues to hint at a tropical cyclone
developing far southeast of the state, whereas the ECMWF does not.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this area,
maintaining a medium (40 percent) chance of development over the
next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Greatest coverage of -SHRA is over windward areas of the Big
Island and Maui. VFR is predominant with brief periods of MVFR
with any passing -SHRA. A moderate trade wind pattern remains into
Saturday with VCSH/-SHRA for windward areas.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect abv 020
for north through east areas from Oahu to Big Island. Conditions
have only shown slight improvement, therefore will continue and
reevaluate later in the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the north will bring moderate to fresh trades to
the region into the weekend. As the trades build, a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed for the typical windier waters, and
an incoming north-northwest swell will bring seas in excess of 10
feet to exposed waters.

The current small, short period north-northeast swell will maintain
small surf along north-facing shores into Saturday. A larger,
long-period northwest swell is expected to arrive late Saturday
and will bring advisory level surf to north and west facing shores
exposed to the swell Sunday into Monday. The swell is expected to
shift slightly more northerly and may briefly build further on
Monday before dropping Tuesday. Depending on the exact direction,
a Marine Weather Statement may eventually need to be issued to
due the potential for harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo during
that time.

The current small, medium period south swell will gradually
decline through the weekend. During the first half of next week,
south shore surf will return to below seasonal averages. East-
facing shores will get continue to be boosted due to the wrap from
the north and southerly swells. As the larger north swell builds
in Sunday night and Monday, the wrap from that will have the
potential for advisory level surf during that time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Recent rain and light to moderate trade winds will maintain low
fire weather concerns through Saturday. As a weak front passes
through early next week and brings breezy northeasterly winds and
drier air to the region, fire weather concerns will become
moderate.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Michael
MARINE...M Ballard
FIRE WEATHER...Farris