206
FXHW60 PHFO 090142
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
342 PM HST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue moving down the island chain through
Sunday, bringing an increase in showers, especially along windward
slopes. Breezy east-northeasterly trades will fill in behind the
front and persist through much of next wee, becoming even stronger
by mid-week as strong high pressure builds north of the islands.
Typical windward and mauka showers will prevail under the trade
flow, with generally drier conditions leeward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon, a weakening cold front is moving down the island
chain from northwest to southeast, trailing a strong low pressure
system that is moving quickly across the North Pacific with a
strong surface high building in its wake. A late morning ASCAT
pass placed the front near Kauai, and latest satellite imagery and
surface observations suggest it is just north of Oahu this
afternoon. A band of clouds and showers along and just ahead of
the front is also currently making its way down the island chain,
and breezy northeasterly winds are filling in with it`s passage.
The band of moisture has resulted in increased cloudiness and
mostly light showers with occasional brief moderate showers over
the western end of the state. Observed rainfall amounts thus far
today have been largely around 0.25 inch or less across lower
elevations of the Garden Isle, though latest hires guidance and
satellite trends suggest that additional light to moderate rain
will be possible for Kauai through tonight. Light background winds
ahead of the front have resulted in afternoon sea breezes across
the remaining islands. Pooled moisture and the front`s approach
have begun to increase showers across Oahu this afternoon as well.

The front is forecast to progress down the island chain as it
weakens, passing over Maui County tonight and reaching the Big
Island by early Sunday. Light and variable winds will prevail
ahead of the front, shifting to breezy east-northeasterly trades
in its wake. Expect an uptick in showers, particularly for
windward and mauka areas, as it moves southeast, though the
increasing breezy winds may allow some showers to reach leeward
areas as well. Mid-level ridging in place over the region will
continue to limit vertical development, keeping rainfall rates
modest overall. With that said, model guidance is still showing
that some windward areas of Maui County and the Big Island could
receive a couple of inches of rain from this evening through the
rest of the weekend.

Following the front, breezy east-northeasterly trades will become
established across the state as high pressure builds to the
north. Another reinforcing front with an even stronger high
pressure system will arrive midweek, providing another boost in
the east-northeasterly trades. With mid level ridging persisting
over the region, inversion heights will remain low, keeping the
moisture confined to lower levels and focusing clouds and showers
over primarily windward and mauka areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front is pushing through the state with enhanced showers
and breezy NE winds. The front has passed Kauai and will continue
moving through the island chain tonight, reaching the Big Island
tomorrow morning. VFR conditions will prevail ahead of the front,
but MVFR conditions are expected during frontal passage. Winds are
expected to strengthen out of the NE after the front moves across
the state.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Kauai windward areas for MTN
obscurations due to CLD and SHRA from the front. This is expected
to be adjusted as conditions settle behind the front, and other
mountainous areas downstream experience CLD and SHRA.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for low-level turbulence over Kauai,
and will likely need to be expanded tonight as winds strengthen
after frontal passage.


&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions expected through much of the upcoming week
due to strong trade winds and a series of north to northeast
swells.

A cold front will be making its way through the island chain this
evening and tonight and is currently located just north of Oahu
this afternoon. As this front pushes through the state, strong
northeast winds will follow with a quick rise in seas. Due to the
quickly changing conditions behind the front, a Small Craft
Advisory was issued for many coastal areas and will likely expand
in coverage as the front makes it way through the island chain
this weekend. Strong northeast winds are expected through much of
the week and could strengthen towards the middle of the week. As
the high strengthens and builds north of the area Wednesday into
Thursday, we could potentially see gales for some of our typical
windy channels around Maui County and the Big Island.

A moderate, short-medium period, north-northwest to north swell
will arrive this evening and will produce elevated surf along
north facing shores through Sunday. Offshore buoys northwest of
the state showed energy mostly in the 10 to 11 second energy bands
throughout the day today, which should keep surf under advisory
thresholds through at least the first half of tonight for north
facing shores. We are expecting a little bit more energy to fill
in tonight, which should translate to near borderline advisory
level surf along north facing shores for Sunday morning.

A larger moderate period north to north- northeast (010-030
degree) swell will fill in Sunday night into Monday which should
exceed advisory thresholds along north and east facing shores.
Also due to the northerly direction areas such as west Maui will
also see elevated surf as well as some of the exposed areas of
west Big Island near Kua Bay. Another reinforcing northeast swell
is expected towards the middle of next week as a gale force low
develops northeast of the state on Monday. The combination of
these swells will likely produce moderate to heavy surges in north
facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo harbors throughout the
first half of next week.

A small, long period, south-southwest swell will keep surf
heights near seasonal averages along south facing shores today. A
pair of south to south-southwest swells should bring above average
surf throughout the first half of next week.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas during the morning high
tide. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through noon
Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
next few days. Light winds ahead of a frontal passage will
transition to become breezy trades through the second half of this
weekend, but increasing moisture will prevent critical fire
weather concerns. Breezy trades are forecast to become even
stronger by mid-week, but low-level moisture embedded within the
trades will help keep relative humidity from reaching critical
thresholds.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Oahu Leeward
Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County
Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Kino
FIRE WEATHER...Vaughan