715
FXHW60 PHFO 041345
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
345 AM HST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As a dissipating front west of Kauai continues to drift away and
weaken, southeasterly winds will become locally breezy today, with
showers focused along east and southeast slopes of all islands.
Trade winds will ease slightly and shift out of the east from
Saturday into early next week, supporting a typical pattern of
windward and mauka rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The dissipating front west of the Kauai is expected to weaken to
trough by Friday morning as is continues to drift away from the
state. Light southeasterly winds continue across the islands with
clouds and showers largely impacting the eastern sides of all
islands. A ridge aloft has provided stable conditions, yet a few
briefly heavy showers have been reported.

As the front continues to weaken and move to the west, a surface
high far to the northeast will build, causing the southeasterly
flow across most of the island chain to gradually strengthen.
These winds may push a few showers onto the east and southeast
facing slopes of the islands.

Moderate easterly trade winds and a typical pattern of showers
focused over windward and mauka areas is expected Saturday
through early next week. Pockets of moisture moving along the
trade wind flow will periodically boost rainfall, but no
significant moisture source is noted in the guidance. The GFS and
ECMWF predictions diverge by the middle of next week, though both
suggest that trade winds could break down.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weakening stationary front west of Kauai will continue to weaken
to a trough within the next 24 hours. This will allow the light
east-southeast winds across the islands to increase and turn to a
more easterly direction by Saturday as a ridge lifts to the
north. Clouds and showers have largely been impacting the eastern
sides of the islands the east-southesterly flow, but as as the
winds turn more to the east and increase, clouds and showers will
be carried into some leeward areas.

VFR conditions are largely expected to prevail, with periods of
MVFR in the passing clouds and showers.

As winds increase today, AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence
will likely be issues, and low-level wind shear will be possible at
PHOG by this afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
A stationary front west of Kauai will gradually weaken to a
trough today and retrograde back westward, away from the islands.
Meanwhile, a ridge of surface high pressure building northeast of
the state will allow for moderate to locally strong east or east
southeast background flow through early Saturday. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been issued from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM
Saturday morning for most of the marine zones surrounding the Big
Island and Maui County. In addition, a moderate to large
northwest swell will build slowly today into tonight and bump
combined seas up to 10+ feet for exposed waters. Another SCA will
likely be issued for tonight through Friday to account for these
rough seas.

The current moderate, medium period, west northwest swell
(300-320 degree) has held steady overnight, as noted on the
Waimea Bay buoy. A reinforcing, slightly larger and slightly
longer period, northwest swell (320-330) is forecast to arrive
later today, peak tonight into early Friday, then ease into the
weekend. This second pulse may bump surf up just enough to breach
High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria along exposed north and west
facing beaches during its peak. The residual small to moderate
northwest swell is expected to veer to the north northwest through
the remainder of the weekend and into early next week and bring
below average surf for December for north and west facing shores.

East shore surf will remain small this morning due to weak winds,
then become larger and choppier by this afternoon through Friday
as trade winds increase. Expect minimal background energy for
south facing shores through much of the week.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted could lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is
possible around the daily peak tide, which will be during the
early morning hours. This could also magnify effects of the
expected high surf on coastal areas along north and west facing
shores around the same time frame.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected this week.
Light winds will give way to mainly moderate east to southeast
winds today, but winds will be below the critical fire weather
threshold. Humidity will be near seasonal normal, and the
inversion will lift slightly from its current range of around 7500
feet.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM HST Saturday
for Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...M Ballard