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FXHW60 PHFO 281329
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
329 AM HST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds are expected to remain light out of the southeast through
the next few days. Stable air will keep most areas dry. A strong
cold front will likely move through Kauai Wednesday, and may reach
as far as Oahu, bringing stronger northerly winds and an increase
in precipitation. This front is expected to recede back to the
west and north Thursday, ushering in a return to trades.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface high pressure center is located around 1000 miles
northeast of the islands this morning. A ridge of high pressure
extends southwest of this center, passing over the state and
bringing us light southeast winds. A ridge aloft continues to
bring us stable conditions, with light precip amounts (generally
less than 0.05 inches except in the favored higher terrain)
reported yesterday. Little change will occur through the weekend.
Sea-breezes during the day and land-breezes at night will continue
much like the past couple of days.

As we head into next week, an initial cold front will stall well to
the west Monday. However, a strong trough in the upper atmosphere
will then drive a second cold front toward the state. Latest
models still show a spread in possible solutions, but have become
slightly more confident that this front will move through Niihau/Kauai
Wednesday, and may reach as far as Oahu. This will bring stronger
northerly winds and an significant increase in precipitation.
Winds will then become northeast and then east as the front
recedes to the west and north Thursday into Friday, ushering in
the return of trades winds. Models will continue to narrow down
the exact path of this front over the next few days.

Vog from the recent eruption of Kilauea continues to be noted
across much of the area, and southeast flow will keep it in the
forecast for the next few days. Surface winds will be slightly
stronger today than yesterday, but still on the weak side. A
gradual warming of daytime highs is forecast through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light generally southeast winds remain in place over the state
today, allowing for daytime sea-breezes and cloud development over
interior and leeward areas. However, stable conditions will
continue to limit shower development. Interior clouds will begin
to dissipate after sunset as land-breezes resume overnight. Light
to moderate southeast background flow will continue today and
Saturday, with daytime sea-breezes once again developing over the
islands. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail over most
locations into the weekend.

There are no AIRMETs in effect, and none are anticipated at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure located northeast of the state will
hold light to moderate east to southeast breezes through today. A
cold front associated with a large very strong low moving across
the Central Pacific will approach the far western islands early
next week. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will veer more
southerly ahead of this slow moving front that will eventually
stall just west of Kauai Tuesday. The front may pass across Niihau
and Kauai during the middle of next week. If this does occur,
expect moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the wake of
the front. A very large northwest swell will pass around the
islands from Saturday through Monday. This will increase seas to
Small Craft Advisory heights (10 feet or higher) early next week.

A quick hitting reinforcing northwest swell will arrive early
this morning that will help maintain HSA level surf through
8AM. North and west-facing shore surf should drop Friday
afternoon and evening.

The aforementioned low is located about 1,400 nm northwest of
Kauai is generating a large fetch of seas. This fetch is being
aimed straight down the northwest great circle route toward the
islands. This very large northwest swell will produce XL size
surf along north and west-facing small island shores Saturday
night through Monday morning. Long period forerunners will begin
arriving Saturday afternoon, then surf will quickly ramp up
Saturday evening. The peak of this event is forecast to be from
late Saturday night through Sunday morning. There is a high
potential for giant size surf (40 to 50 feet) along the north-
facing shores of the smaller islands Saturday night into Sunday. A
High Surf Warning for these shores will likely be in effect from
Saturday night into Monday.

East-facing chop will remain small through the weekend due to weak
winds. Select south-facing shores will likely experience westerly
wrap from this weekend`s large northwest swell passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Even though we will see relative humidity levels fall heading
into the weekend, weak winds will preclude reaching critical fire
weather conditions for the next few days. Temperature inversion
heights near Big Island and Maui will range between 5000 and 7000
feet.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM HST this morning for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Parker