710
FXHW60 PHFO 300215
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
415 PM HST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable southeasterly flow will continue to produce a land and
sea breeze weather pattern with little rainfall through Tuesday. A
weakening front may reach the western end of the island chain on
Wednesday, followed by developing easterly trade winds late next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Stable and mostly dry conditions persist under light winds. The
subtropical ridge has been displaced southward to near Kauai,
keeping southeast winds over most islands with a shift out of the
south over the Garden Isle. As a result, most islands remain
within a light flow in the downwind wake of the Big Island,
allowing land and sea breezes to dominate. A ridge aloft parked
overhead is maintaining a somewhat strong inversion around 6,500
feet, while precipitable water is largely below seasonal normal.
These ingredients are producing scant rainfall, even as afternoon
sea breezes generate clouds over interior terrain. The exception
is on Kauai, where a shallow and diffuse area of moisture just to
the south could produce a few brief showers over land. The
southeasterly flow is also carrying some volcanic emissions from
recent activity at Kilauea over most islands. While air quality
sensors are not showing high concentrations and there is no
significant restriction to visibility, a noticeable haze persists.

Expect little change through Tuesday. The subtropical ridge may
briefly retreat slightly northward on Monday, but overall, the
regional flow will remain southeasterly, with land and sea breezes
dominating over land. The atmosphere will remain stable, and aside
from a few lingering showers near Kauai and Niihau tonight,
rainfall will continue to be minimal. Thin high clouds will
periodically spread of the islands, and the widespread volcanic
haze (vog) will likely stick around through Sunday, followed by an
expected decrease in most areas on Monday.

A front could produce an increase in rainfall on the western end
of the state on Wednesday, but confidence remains low as the GFS
and ECMWF continue to disagree on how far the front will advance
eastward. The latest runs of the GFS are keeping nearly all of
the associated rainfall west of Kauai, while 12Z ECMWF depicts
the front passing over Kauai before stalling just west of Oahu.
Ensembles of both models do not show high probabilities of
significant rainfall accumulation, with the wettest ECMWF scenario
suggesting a couple of inches on northern slopes of Kauai.

Easterly trade winds will likely develop Thursday and Friday,
bringing showers to windward slopes of all islands and pushing
the stalled front west of Kauai.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface observations from across the islands show light southeast
background flow this afternoon. The light background winds have
resulted in localized sea breezes and increased cloud cover over
island interiors today. These interior clouds will clear once
again overnight as land breezes resume.

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected on
Sunday, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes.
Stable conditions will limit rainfall potential throughout the
rest of the weekend. VFR flight conditions will prevail at most
locations.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, and none are
anticipated at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will dominate over the Hawaiian Islands
into early next week. Expect light to moderate southeast winds,
with near shore sea breezes each day. An approaching cold front
will stall just northwest of Kauai on Sunday, then a second cold
front may approach the western islands on Wednesday. Current model
guidance suggests this front will stall just W of Kauai before
getting pushed back to the west by Thursday onward. An XL
northwest swell will continue building into Hawaiian waters today,
peaking Sunday, and slowly declining on Monday. Combined seas for
Hawaiian Coastal Waters exposed to WNW swell will maintain above
Small Craft Advisory levels (above 10 feet) through early next
week.

An XL WNW swell will continue building into the region this
afternoon through the evening. This swell will bring dangerous
surf heights ranging from 25 to 45 feet along most N and W facing
shores with larger waves over select outer reefs. This swell will
peak Sunday morning, and slowly decline on Monday. A High Surf
Warning remains in effect for the N and W facing shores of the
smaller islands. And along the west facing shores of the Big
Island, as warning level surf builds in rapidly tonight. Another
moderate to large NW swell is possible for the second half of next
week from another potential gale to storm force low that weather
models are developing in the NW Pacific.

East shore surf will remain small through the weekend due to weak
winds. Select south facing shores could experience westerly wrap
from this weekend`s large WNW swell passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rather dry conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday.
Winds will be light and variable under a stable land and sea
breeze pattern, preventing critical fire weather thresholds from
being approached. With the inversion holding around 6,500 ft, very
dry conditions will persist on the upper elevations of the Big
Island and Maui.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until noon HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-
Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley
North-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Warning until noon HST Monday for Kona-Kohala.

Small Craft Advisory until noon HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Tsamous
FIRE WEATHER...Wroe