Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
969 FXHW60 PHFO 050623 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 823 PM HST Thu Jun 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades deliver showers windward and mauka through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... No significant changes to report, the forecast remains on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM HST Thu Jun 4 2026 A batch of moisture advancing through the island chain today has rather efficiently produced numerous showers windward and mauka, even during the unfavorable peak heating period and beneath building subsidence associated with 500mb height rises to 590+dm. Breezy trades will deliver some of the taller showers to leeward zones through late afternoon. Satellite trends suggest this activity will shift west of the area by late this evening. Very little change going forward as a seasonally stable and benign trade wind pattern persists well into next week. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trade winds with embedded showers are expected through tomorrow. Showers are primarily affecting windward and mountain areas, but are capable of spilling over into leeward areas as well. Expect MVFR to even brief IFR conditions within showers, and VFR elsewhere. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations across windward and mountain areas from Kauai to Maui. Expect these conditions to generally prevail through tomorrow due to upstream and ongoing showers. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8kft for areas downwind of terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to remain for the next couple of days, as trades remain steady. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail as high pressure remains anchored far northeast of the islands through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect through Saturday and will likely be extended through at least Monday. Trades may ease slightly Tuesday as high pressure shifts away to the northeast. The south-southwest swell that produced advisory level surf along south-facing shores for the past few days has begun to slowly decline. This evening, nearshore buoys show that the swell has come down slightly to 3 to 4 feet, 15 seconds. This trend is expected to continue, with surf gradually easing through Friday and the weekend. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. A small, long-period south-southwest swell is expected to arrive late Sunday and peak early next week. Along north-facing shores, a small medium-period north swell will build tonight and is forecast to peak early Friday, then ease over the weekend. A tiny west-northwest swell is possible early next week. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually build to around seasonal average by Friday, though some areas exposed to wrapping north swell could be slightly larger Thursday night and Friday. Near average east shore surf will prevail this weekend into early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Evans MARINE...Vaughan