512
FXHW60 PHFO 291859
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
859 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Nolo will pass to the west of the state over the next
couple of days bringing increasing showers across Kauai and Oahu.
Breezy southeast winds will continue through Wednesday, then
gradually weaken and become trade winds by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hurricane Nolo (cat. 2) is around 320 miles west southwest of
Lihue this morning tracking north at 9 mph. Nolo is expected to
briefly stall west of the state tonight, then begin to move away
to the west northwest. Breezy southeast winds will continue
across the state into Wednesday as Nolo remains close to the area.

While Nolo will not make direct impacts to the state, rain bands
along the eastern periphery will move in the southeast flow and
bring showers across Kauai and Oahu through Thursday. Expecting
to see 3 to 6 inches of additional rain on Kauai and Niihau, and
up to 4 inches on Oahu. Not considering a Flood Watch at this time
with the anticipation these rainfall amounts will be spread out
over several days and showers should be moving along quickly.
However, southeast flow will direct showers across the populated
areas of both islands.

East southeasterly winds will continue, but gradually weaken,
through the second half of the week as Nolo tracks away. By this
weekend, trade winds are forecast to build in bringing drier and
more stable conditions again.

By Monday a weak low pressure system drops into the region and deepens
several hundred miles to the northeast. Northeasterly winds along
the western flank of the surface low will drive a convergence
cloud band into the Hawaiian Islands from the north early next
week. This cloud band will likely bring a several day period of
enhanced shower trends to all islands from Monday into Wednesday.
These clouds and showers may linger near the Big Island through
the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trade winds with locally gusty winds in the
afternoon/evening continue today with gradual weakening expected.
Winds are generally out of the east to southeast with winds
shifting more northeasterly overnight. Moisture from Hurricane
Nolo is expected to move into Kauai by late this morning with
showers becoming more widespread across the county. Showers
gradually spread eastward towards Oahu late Tuesday and continue
into Wednesday. Periods of MVFR conditions are likely as showers
move across the islands. A few showers may reach Molokai and Maui
but confidence is lower.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below
9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain. This
AIRMET will be needed through at least Wednesday and potentially
into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh SE winds have established over area waters.
Strong to near-gale SE flow will develop tonight into Wednesday
around Kauai due to Hurricane Nolo`s close proximity. The Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for these waters. Moderate trades
return early next week.

A moderate, medium period SW swell originating from Nolo is
producing surf to the High Surf Advisory threshold for S shores of
Kauai County today. Confidence that surf will hover at low end HSA
thresholds is reasonably high for about 12 hours at a time, but
the complex swell situation limits confidence thereafter. As such,
the HSA remains in effect through today and will be evaluated
again this afternoon with heavy emphasis placed on observational
trends.

Surf along E shores declines in response to developing SE flow. A
slight bump can then be expected early next week as moderate
trades return. Multiple rounds of tiny swell originating out of
the northwest quadrant will reach north and select west facing
exposures next week as the storm track in the vicinity of the
Aleutian Islands becomes increasingly active.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A gradual increase in humidity expected through midweek. Moisture
drawn northward along the eastern sides of Nolo will increase
rain chances across the western part of the state. Fire conditions
will improve statewide over the next couple days as winds weaken
and humidity levels rise.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Kauai South.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...Foster