877
FXHW60 PHFO 011946
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
946 AM HST Thu Oct 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Tropical Storm Nolo will gradually accelerate westward away from
the state over the next several days. Elevated moisture content
being drawn up in the southeast flow will maintain a wetter
pattern for Hawaii through the end of the week. Then drier trades
are expected to return over the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Trailing moisture associate with Tropical Storm Nolo`s circulation
continues to bring period of showers across some of the islands.
This morning, most of the rainfall has been observed across Oahu,
as a persistent line of showers is moving from south to north.
This weather pattern is forecast to continue through late this
afternoon or even tonight. Rest of the state will remain dry. No
changes are needed to forecast package this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM HST Thu Oct 1 2026
A wetter pattern is expected to persist across the western half
of the state through Friday as Tropical Storm Nolo accelerates
westward away from the state and deep tropical moisture is drawn
up in the convergent, moderate southeasterly flow. Moderate to
heavy showers are expected to continue to stream into mainly Kauai
and Oahu from the south, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per
hour. With the rainfall already received since Tuesday night for
Kauai and Oahu, the main concern is the potential for nuisance
flooding if rainbands train over a particular area and bring
persistent heavy rain. Over the last several hours, the moderate
to heavy showers have been moving fast enough and have been
dispersed enough in areal coverage to avoid the need for flood
advisories or flash flood warnings.

As that band of deeper moisture follows Nolo to the west, drier
air will be ushered in by moderate to breezy east-northeasterly
trade winds this weekend. This will not only minimize the shower
activity and confine it to primarily windward areas, but also
allow dew points to drop, bringing some relief from the mugginess
of the past week.

Early next week, the trades will weaken in response to an
approaching surface trough from the northeast and then will weaken
further heading into midweek as broad troughing develops
northwest of the state. In this lighter flow, land and sea breezes
will become increasingly more prevalent with clearing expected
overnight and clouds and a few showers developing over leeward and
interior areas with daytime heating each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate southeast winds will continue today and tonight across
the state as Tropical Storm Nolo moves away. Showers loosely
associated with Nolo will continue to track over Kauai and Oahu
today with MVFR conditions likely through the day. Maui County and
Big Island will also see occasional clouds and showers through the
day.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration above 2000 feet is in
effect for all portions of the smaller islands. This AIRMET will
likely continue through today for Kauai and Oahu, and dropped
later this morning for Molokai, Maui and possibly Lanai.


&&

.MARINE...

Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across the region
through Friday as Tropical Storm Nolo continues to slowly drift
westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Gentle to fresh east to
northeast trades will fill back in across the waters this weekend.

The moderate, short to medium period west to southwest swell
originating from Nolo will continue for Niihau and Kauai through
Friday night. Additionally, a small background south swell
continues for other islands. The next small, long period south
swell energy will arrive from Sunday afternoon, peaking on
Monday, and then slowly decreasing through Wednesday.

Surf along other shores will remain small until moderate trades
return by Saturday, providing a slight boost to east facing
shores. Multiple rounds of tiny northwest swell energy will reach
north and west facing shores late this week into early next week as
the storms tracking near the Aleutian Islands become increasingly
active.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM HST Thu Oct 1 2026
Fire weather concerns will be low over the next couple of days
due to the lighter southeast winds bringing high relative
humidities and scattered to numerous showers to the state. Drier
air is expected to be ushered in over the weekend as moderate to
locally breezy east-northeasterly trades return, which may
increase the fire weather concern slightly to moderate levels.
However, winds are expected to decrease early to midweek next
week, lowering the fire weather concerns once again.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castro
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Vaughan