032
FXHW60 PHFO 011958
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
958 AM HST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will move into the region today from west to east as the
southern end of a cold front brings northeast trade winds back to
the state. Breezy to strong trades will be with us through the
coming week, along with the typical showers occurring mainly in
windward and mauka regions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Breezy to strong north-northeast to northeast trades will
steadily fill in today into tonight from west to east across the
state as a front pushes through. With abundant low level moisture
ahead of the front and some marginal instability, we did increase
the POPs for areas of Maui and the Big Island for this afternoon,
especially windward areas. Some locally heavy showers will be
possible this afternoon, capable of producing minor flooding. The
12Z HREF shows the heaviest precipitation over windward and
southeast Big Island this afternoon, where a few inches of rain
would be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM HST Sun Nov 1 2026
A significant area of strong and often persistent showers that
moved over Kauai yesterday has diminished overnight. Flooding
occurred on Kauai, including water over Kuhio Highway near
Hanalei. As of 3:30 AM HST, radar shows an area of light to
moderate showers mainly south of Oahu, with additional scattered
showers extending from around Kona to near Upolu on the Big
Island.

A weak front will bring drier air to the state today, moving in
from west to east. The strongest part of the front will remain
well north of the area, but a change to northeast trade winds
will occur, and dewpoints will fall from the lower 70s in the mid
60s (at lower elevations). The Big Island will be the last island
to experience the drier air, and showers will continue there into
this afternoon. Additional light trade wind showers, mainly
windward and mauka, will continue even after the drier air reaches
the state.

A surface high will move east to a position around 500 miles to
our north Monday and generally remain there through Wednesday.
Later this week, this high will be replaced by a new high centered
to our northwest moving in from the west, keeping the trades
going. By this time, moisture will have increased somewhat, but
not nearly as high as what we have experienced the past few days.
Light trade wind showers will be with us, but heavy rain is not in
the forecast.

Final note, some model runs show a tropical system forming to our
southeast late this coming week. The models that do show this have
the potential system moving west and staying to our south. NHC
has a 50% chance of formation within 7 days. We will continue to
watch for any increase in model consistency, and of course for
guidance from NHC, through the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weakening frontal boundary will push through the state today.
Scattered light to moderate showers are embedded within the flow.
Isolated locally heavy showers are possible as well, particularly
over the eastern half of the state. Expect more frequent MVFR
conditions statewide, with IFR conditions possible in heavier
downpours. Winds will begin to strengthen today out of the NE,
particularly in the wake of the front. Drier conditions are
expected to settle in for most of the state tonight, with the
exception being windward Big Island.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations across the
state today. This AIRMET will be modified as the front passes and
conditions potentially improve. However, lingering moisture may
still allow mountain obscurations to occur after the front passes.


&&

.MARINE...
A trough to the northwest of Kauai will sink southward across the
island chain today and tonight, with high pressure to the north,
behind the trough, causing fresh to strong northeast winds to
overspread the region. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect
for all coastal waters as a result. Waves will also exceed 10 feet
for exposed waters with the arrival of a north-northwest (330
degree) swell. This swell also brings high surf to north and west
facing shores of Kauai and Oahu, as well as north facing shores of
Maui and Molokai, for which a High Surf Advisory is in effect.
Moderate to locally strong northeast trades are expected to
continue through much of the week.

Surf along north facing shores will continue to build this morning
well into High Surf Advisory levels as this swell peaks this
afternoon into the evening hours before slowly declining Monday.
However,advisory level surf is expected to linger through at
least Monday morning before falling to more moderate levels by
Monday evening. Another advisory level northwest swell is possible
Thursday into Friday, and moderate to large surf action appears
to continue into the weekend.

The current moderate, medium period south swell will hold today near
seasonal average before declining on Monday. South shore surf will
be tiny through much of the week with little southerly background
energy reaching the islands. East-facing shores will see an increase
in trade wind swell as northeast winds return today. Surf along east-
facing shores will increase through Monday night and conditions will
stay choppy as trades sustain through much of the week. A north-
northeast trade wind swell (around 30 degrees) this week will
reach moderate levels, but remains short-period, so the threat of
harbor surges appears less likely.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM HST Sun Nov 1 2026
Recent wet weather has lowered fire concern due to wet fuels.
Trades with drier air will move into the region today, and wind
speeds will increase and remain elevated through at least
Wednesday. The temperature inversion from Maui to the Big Island
was around 9000 feet this morning and is expected to lower to
around 7000 feet by Monday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai East-Kauai
North-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Windward-Maui Central Valley North-
Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu
North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

Update...Kino
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Trotter
MARINE...Shigesato