538
FXHW60 PHFO 260630
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands
will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds through
Monday with periods of showers favoring windward mountain areas
in the overnight to early morning hours. Hurricane Fausto remains
on track to pass near the Hawaiian Islands early next week. The
latest forecast for Fausto shows a weakening trend to tropical
storm strength as it moves closer to the island chain. A drier and
breezy trade wind weather pattern will return across the state from
Thursday onward as Fausto drifts westward away from the Hawaiian
Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Satellite imagery this evening shows several bands of unsettled
clouds riding in on the trade winds. Afternoon subsidence
inversion heights as measured by Expect periods of showers
favoring the eastern or windward mountain areas in the overnight
to early morning hours as these bands pass through the island
chain.

The afternoon forecast grids remain in good shape, no evening
updates.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2026
Breezy trade winds will usher in windward clouds and showers
through Monday. Incoming clouds and showers will focus over
windward and mauka areas, mostly occurring during the nighttime
and early morning hours. 00Z soundings show a stable environment
across the islands with an inversion around 8000 to 9000 feet.

The highlight next week will be the approach of now Hurricane
Fausto. Fausto is expected to weaken over the next several days as
it tracks west across higher shear and cooler waters, reaching
the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday. Main impacts
Tuesday and Wednesday include the possibility of strong winds,
flooding rain and east shores surf, and will be dependent upon
Fausto`s eventual path. Winds could also be mitigated on a more
northerly swing of the track, but more impactful if it slides
southward, so confidence remains low. For rainfall, mitigating
effects will be Fausto`s relatively quick west movement limiting
how long it will rain will last across each island, but our
terrain can capture much of this moisture as it passes through.
Meanwhile, swell generated by Fausto has the highest likelihood
of occurrence, which will gradually build Sunday night through
Monday night.

No time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness
plans, and ensure every household has at least a 14 day supply of
food and water available if needed during this years active hurricane
season.

A drier and more stable breezy trade wind pattern will fill in
across the state from Thursday onward as Fausto continues to
journey westward away from the Hawaiian Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trades through the rest of the weekend. Winds should trend
down Sunday evening. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily impact
windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to
leeward areas. MVFR conds likely in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR
prevails.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions
of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conds should
improve in the early morning hours.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low- level turb downwind
of island terrain. This AIRMET is likely to continue through
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to locally strong trades will persist through Sunday then
gradually shift to the NNE and diminish through the middle of
next week in response to Hurricane Fausto passing north of the
islands. The trades will then ramp back up to fresh and strong
levels late next week into next weekend as Fausto continues off to
the west-northwest away from the state while strong high pressure
builds back into the north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui and the Big
Island through 6 PM Sunday.

The current long-period south swell will hold steady at advisory
levels tonight, then begin a slow decline Sunday through late next
week. Depending on observational trends from the buoys south of
the islands, the advisory may need to be extended through the day
Sunday. South shore surf will remain elevated above the summertime
average through the middle of next week, before trending closer to
or perhaps a bit below normal by next weekend.

Locally strong trade winds will continue to support rough surf
above the seasonal average along east facing shores tonight and
Sunday. Trade wind swell will then decline due to diminishing
trades Sunday night through the middle of next week. A long
period swell from Hurricane Fausto will begin to arrive later
tonight, build Sunday and Monday, then peak Tuesday into early
Wednesday. This swell is forecast to produce advisory level surf
along east facing shores as early as Monday, followed by potential
for warning level surf as it peaks on Tuesday into early
Wednesday. After a brief lull late Wednesday through Thursday,
east shore surf will trend back up Friday into next weekend due
to a combination of rising trade wind swell and a new long period
east swell associated with Tropical Storm Genevieve moving in.

Surf along N shores remains flat to tiny through the weekend.
Some increase is expected as Fausto or its remnants pass near the
region Tuesday and Wednesday, with north shore surf returning to
typical flat to tiny levels late Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all south facing
shores.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Bohlin
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Jelsema