087
FXHW60 PHFO 101338
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
338 AM HST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue this week as an
uptick in winds is expected by mid-week with high pressure
building north of the islands. Clouds and showers will remain
focused over windward and mauka areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast was nudged to the latest solution of the National
Blend of Models, which didn`t make too many changes to the PoPs
and associated fields. Overnight ASCAT pass showed winds over the
coastal waters stronger than even the high resolution models, so
while the forecast was nudged to the NBM and Hi-Res FV3,
additional adjustments were made to boost the wind forecast over
the waters. Over land, some isolated areas, mainly along and
around mountain tops, are near wind advisory. Winds are expected
to increase over the next couple of days, so confidence is
increasing for the need at least for some areas to fall under a
wind advisory.

A band of showery clouds continues to remain focused over the
windward sides of the islands from Oahu to the Big Island
overnight. The GOES-18 precipitable water sensor shows drier air
moving into the islands from the north, so expect reduced shower
activity as the day wears on. Global models suggest another uptick
in shower activity Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Dewpoints are expected to remain the mid 60s today and tomorrow,
which will help to make it feel a touch cooler. Heading into
Wednesday, as additional moisture rides in on the trades, expect
dewpoints to increase into the upper 60s/near 70. Trade winds
look to peak Wednesday, and then subside to more moderate levels
Thursday. Passing clouds and showers will continue to ride in on
the trade winds.


&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure to the north of the islands will continue to produce
breezy tradewinds over the region. Clouds and showers riding in on
the trades will bring MVFR conditions to windward and mountain
areas into tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds
are expected to increase over the next couple of days as the high
to the north becomes better established. As a slightly drier
airmass moves overhead, showers will continue be focused over
windward and mountain areas, but should become more passing in
nature.

AIRMET Sierra continues for mountain obscuration from Oahu to the
Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve later today.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical turbulence to the
lee of the mountains of all islands due to the breezy trade winds.
Expect this AIRMET to remain in place into at least the middle of
the week due to the winds increasing.


&&

.MARINE...

A high will build far north of the state over the next couple of
days maintaining fresh to strong northeast trade winds over all
marine zones. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through
Tuesday afternoon for all coastal marine zones due to a
combination of winds and high seas. The high will shift closer and
northeast of the state Wednesday and Thursday strengthening the
trade wind speeds to near- gale force over the windier waters and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island.

A new large north- northeast swell (20 deg) is filling in locally
and should peak just after daybreak. Offshore NDBC buoy 51000
appears to have peaked 2 to 3 feet above guidance and is slowly
flattening out. Peak surf heights have thus been increased a
couple of feet this morning to reflect this but should stay within
High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria. The HSA will remain in effect
through through Tuesday morning as this swell slowly fades, but
could possibly be extended. A Marine Weather Statement (MWS) also
remains in effect due to potential harbor surges generated from
this large swell within north facing harbors, such as Hilo and
Kahului. The MWS may need to be extended through the middle of the
week but will be determined later today depending if this swell
transitions to more of a northeast angle.

A moderate northwest swell is expected to fill in late Tuesday,
and peak Wednesday near High Surf Advisory levels for north and
potentially west facing shores. Another moderate to large, medium
period northeast swell (40-50 deg) may be generated from a
developing gale low pressure system to the northeast which could
keep north shore surf elevated through much of the week.

East facing shores will exhibit large rough choppy seas through
the forecast period, with potentially the largest surf at High
Surf Advisory levels during the middle of the week.

The first in a series of small, long period south swells is
filling this morning and should peak later today. The next small
long period south swell will fill in Tuesday and peak Wednesday
before subsiding Thursday. These swells should keep modest surf
along south facing shores through much of the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions not expected the next couple of
days. Breezy to locally strong trades will continue across the
state through much of the week, but low-level moisture embedded
within the trades should help to keep relative humidity from
reaching critical thresholds.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Olomana-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Kauai East-East
Honolulu-Koolau Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast-
Molokai North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala-
Kipahulu-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian
waters-


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Almanza
FIRE WEATHER...M Ballard