678
FXHW60 PHFO 301934
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
934 AM HST Fri Oct 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A more typical trade wind pattern will become established across
the island chain today, with moderate trade winds focusing clouds
and showers over windward and mauka areas through Saturday. A
front will move down the island chain late Sunday through Monday,
bringing breezy northeasterly trades and drier air in its wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
The current forecast remains on track with moderate trade
winds focusing low clouds and showers across windward and mauka
areas of all of the smaller islands this morning. The
thunderstorms that previously impacted the Puna district on the
Big Island overnight have pushed offshore and dissipated, with a
return to a more normal trade wind pattern expected by late this
afternoon or evening as the trades finally fill in. With abundant
tropical moisture still over the area, isolated heavy downpours
will still be possible today, mostly over the Big Island where the
greatest moisture and instability remain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM HST Fri Oct 30 2026

Energy within the southwest steering flow...ahead of a near
stationary mid to upper level weakening low churning approximately
1,100 miles southwest of the state...has been passing across
Hawaii overnight. Evidence of this was the blow up of thunderstorms
over eastern Big Island`s coastal Puna District and surrounding
waters early this morning. We are still under a very moist air
mass of between 2.1 to 2.6 inch precipitable waters that fall in
the maximum climatological categories for late October standards.
12Z soundings show a more stable column over Lihue with a weak 8k
ft inversion while Hilo`s profile is much more unstable (~800
J/kg**2 MU CAPE and about 30 kt of ingested low level shear). This
is to be expected by witness to the MCV-like convection that
occurred over Puna and surrounding waters past midnight. Weak mid
level ridging will be over the state today as the aforementioned
low slowly slides off stage left. The synoptic movement of these
primary players should limit any mid to upper level forcing over
the islands as the energy east of low should remain well west of
the state. The surface trough that has been over us the last few
days has become diffuse enough to be unmentionable and recent
ASCAT passes verifies that the state is under a light to moderate
trade flow pattern. This moisture-rich resident air mass is going
nowhere soon so expect more clouds than sun and scattered
windward-focused showers through the day.

Halloween`s forecast calls for a typical October day by Hawaiian
standards albeit a touch more humid than many would like. Trades
will weaken a bit and this keep conditions more muggy through the
partly (leeward) to mostly cloudy (windward) day. Evening conditions
should be more treat than trick with average middle 70s, 60 to
70 %RH, calm to very light trade breezes under partially cloudy
skies. The highest rain chances will be over the windward
exposures of all islands, especially eastern Big Island. Any
passing shower will be infrequent and a quick hitter.

A central North Pacific trough will swing down and pass east of
the state Sunday. This will likely push a weak surface front
across the island chain late that night into early Monday. Strong
backing high pressure building behind this weak boundary will
produce strengthened northerly winds from late Sunday through the
middle of next week. Possible sweater weather as cooler and drier
air advects in from the north early next week. Post-frontal dew
points lowering into the lower 60s Monday with a stout north
northeast breeze will be a noticeable more autumn-like change from
these recent wet and more humid conditions. A typical trade-like
precipitation pattern as infrequent showers affect windward
communities and upslope mauka regions. Next week will be one of
generally quiet trade weather. During the end of next week, an
area of disturbed weather far southeast of the islands will be
monitored for the potential development of a tropical cyclone.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA continues to diminish to more of -SHRA/VCSH, with the
exception of the windward portions of the Big Island and Maui.
However, even there should be a gradually downward trend in
activity through the day. Earlier TS east of the Big Island has
also diminished with no TS expected this afternoon. Otherwise,
conditions are largely VFR across the board with brief periods of
MVFR in passing -SHRA. Trade winds return today with typical VCSH
chances through the period.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect abv 020
for north through east areas from Oahu to Big Island. Conditions
may improve enough through the morning to allow for the
cancellation of AIRMET Sierra, but planning to leave it in place
for now.

AIRMET Tango for turbulence is no longer in effect. However,
continuing to monitor the potential for low level light-mod turb
state wide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM HST Fri Oct 30 2026

A weak trough near the eastern end of the state that has been a
focus for showers and thunderstorms over the past few days will
slowly move southward and dissipate today. Therefore, expect
shower and thunderstorm coverage to gradually reduce over the next
24 hours. Ridging to the north will gradually drive moderate to
fresh easterly winds over most waters today into the weekend. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late this weekend into
early next week due to a combination of increasing trade winds and
seas of 10 feet or greater as a result of an incoming north-
northwest swell.

A small, short period north-northeast swell will fill in today and
maintain small surf along north-facing shores. A larger, long-
period northwest swell will begin to arrive late Saturday. This
swell will likely push north and exposed west shore surf above
the High Surf Advisory threshold Sunday into Monday. The swell
will shift slightly more northerly and may briefly build further
on Monday before dropping Tuesday. Depending on the exact
direction, a Marine Weather Statement may eventually need to be
issued to due the potential for harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo.

A small, medium period south swell will peak today, though surf
along south-facing shores will remain below High Surf Advisory
levels. This swell will then gradually decline through the
weekend. During the first half of next week, south shore surf will
return to below seasonal averages.

Surf along most east-facing shores will rise slightly today due to
wrap from the north and southerly swells. Additionally, east-
facing shorelines exposed to the larger north swell Sunday night
into Monday will have the potential for advisory level surf during
that time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM HST Fri Oct 30 2026

Recent rain and light winds have kept fire weather concerns low.
As the soil and vegetation begins to dry out the next couple of
days, fire weather conditions will move into the more moderate
category. The passage of a weak front early next week will
introduce breezy north northeast winds in its wake. Drier
conditions are expected after this boundary`s late Sunday or early
Monday passage. Thus, fire weather concerns will continue to be
on the rise through next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris
DISCUSSION...Blood
AVIATION...Michael
MARINE...Vaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Blood