Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
588 FXHW60 PHFO 300643 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 840 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Nolo will slowly track north to the west of the islands and remain over the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday. Nolo will take a westerly turn and move away from the state Thursday, nearing the International Date Line as a Category 1 or Tropical Storm Sunday. Bands of showers along Nolo`s eastern flank will move up from the south and pass across the islands the next few days with Oahu and Kauai likely picking up the higher rain totals. Breezy southeast winds will persist through Wednesday, weaken through late week and then transition back to trades by early next week. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Category 1 Hurricane Nolo, located approximately 250 nautical miles west of Barking Sands Beach, Kauai, is slowly tracking north this evening. Nolo`s far eastern outer bands are providing brief periods of light to moderate rain as they quickly pass over Kauai and Oahu from the south. This evening`s rainfall amounts have been low with no more than quarter of an inch per hour rates at many west and central Kauai sites. These low amounts are primarily attributed to these rain cells passing north at 25 mph. While the bulk of the heaviest precipitation stays over the nearshore waters west of Niihau and Kauai, Nolo`s more north-than-west motion will keep return periods of rain in the forecast for mainly the western third of the state through early Friday. Due to the quick passage of this rain, most areas will not experience any significant flooding concerns. Nuisance flooding of lower lying areas and street ponding may occur, especially over Oahu and Kauai, the next couple of days in the event that rainfall becomes more orientated to the background southeast flow and exhibits more of a training nature. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy southeast winds will persist through Wednesday as Hurricane Nolo gradually slides off to the west, away from the state. Outer rain bands associated with Nolo will bring showers into mainly Kauai and Oahu from the south over the next 24 hours, with Kauai expecting the most coverage. MVFR and even IFR conditions will be possible within these showers. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Kauai due to the clouds and showers moving over the island from the south. This AIRMET will likely be needed through Wednesday and may need to be expanded to Oahu. AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence west through north of the island terrain over Kauai. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 Hurricane Nolo is around 310 miles west of Lihue this afternoon tracking north at 8 mph. Nolo is expected to briefly stall west of the state tonight, then begin to move away to the west northwest. Breezy southeast winds will continue across the state into Wednesday as Nolo remains close to the area. While Nolo will not make direct impacts to the state, rain bands along the eastern periphery will move in the southeast flow and bring showers across Kauai and Oahu through Thursday. Expecting to see 3 to 6 inches of additional rain on Kauai and Niihau, and up to 4 inches on Oahu. Not considering a Flood Watch with the anticipation these rainfall amounts will be spread out over several days and showers should be moving along quickly. However, southeast flow will direct showers across the populated areas of both islands. The rest of the state will be under a hybrid east southeast flow pattern where the Big Island will partially block Maui County resulting in localized nighttime land that will clear skies out and daytime sea breezes that will bring interior cloud cover. Precipitation across Maui County and Big Island will be minimal. East southeasterly winds will continue, but gradually weaken, through the second half of the week as Nolo tracks away. Winds will back to moderate trades by the weekend. On Monday and Tuesday, a weak front will push across the islands and stall near the Big Island through the remainder of the week. Winds will taper off behind this front as a second front approaches much slower. Lingering clouds and showers near the Big Island and light winds statewide next week will result in a diurnal land and sea breeze weather pattern. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 Moderate to fresh SE winds prevails over area waters. Strong to near-gale SE flow will develop tonight into Wednesday around Kauai due to Hurricane Nolo`s close proximity. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these waters. Moderate trades return early next week. The moderate, medium period SW swell originating from Nolo has eased slightly with the latest observations coming in below the High Surf Advisory (HSA). The HSA has therefore been allowed to expire. Surf along E shores has declined in response to emerging SE flow. Surf will remain small until moderate trades return early next week providing a modest boost. Multiple rounds of tiny swell originating out of the northwest quadrant will reach north and select west facing exposures next week as the storm track in the vicinity of the Aleutian Islands becomes increasingly active. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 Fire conditions improving through the remainder of the week to due an increase in moisture across the state and breezy southeast winds. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Farris MARINE...JVC