Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
354 FXHW60 PHFO 021327 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 327 AM HST Tue Sep 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate trade winds will bring a drier more stable air mass over the island chain through the remainder of the week. Light showers over windward and mauka locations can be expected in the overnight and early morning hours. Most leeward areas will be rather dry with sea breezes producing afternoon clouds and a few showers, especially on the Big Island. && .DISCUSSION... Currently, looking at radar and satellite we have some scattered showers moving across the state, with some low level clouds moving into the Big Island and Maui. A weak surface ridge parked north of Kauai will maintain light to moderate trades. An upper- level low northwest of the state will begin to creep northward and allow a strong mid- level ridge, to bring stable conditions to the entire state. Most leeward areas will be rather dry, but sea breezes will produce afternoon clouds and a few showers, mainly on the Kona slopes of the Big Island. Windward and mauka showers will be possible overnight into the early morning hours. Little change is expected to the somewhat dry trade wind flow through the coming weekend. With the latest National Hurricane Center update we now have Hurricane Kiko in the East Pacific basin. Hurricane Kiko is moving due west at 7 MPH and should cross into the Central Pacific basin (140W) Friday or Saturday. It remains too early to tell what, if any, impacts this system might have on local weather as it nears the islands early next week. && .AVIATION... Light to moderate trades through the rest of the week. Low cigs and SHRA expected over windward and mauka areas. Sea breezes with some showers over leeward locations possible in the afternoon hours. While MVFR conds are always possible in SHRA, VFR should prevail. No AIRMETs in effect. && .MARINE... Weak surface ridge to the north will remain nearly stationary and maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds through the forecast period with some localized sea breezes, especially across leeward waters. Elevated surf will continue along north facing shores with a mix of a short to medium period north swell, and a small medium period northwest swell that has begun to fill in early this morning. These swells will peak this afternoon and gradually decline through Thursday. Reinforcing small short to medium period north- northwest swells are expected, keeping surf elevated through the end of the week. Surf along south facing shores will continue to slowly decline today as the current south swell fades. Background medium to long period energy will hold through the second part of the week before a small to moderate long period south-southwest swell fills in over the weekend. Below average surf is expected to continue along east facing shores persisting through early next week. Peak monthly high tides, combined with water levels running higher than predicted, may lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas Wednesday through the end of the week. Coastal Flooding will be mainly focused around the daily afternoon peak tide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions return today with trade winds remaining in the light to moderate range keeping the state below critical fire weather thresholds this week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Shigesato FIRE WEATHER...Walsh