268
FXHW60 PHFO 190144
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
344 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade wind showers expected in the usual windward and mauka areas
through tonight. Weaker trade winds expected Wednesday through
Friday, increasing potential for showers on the leeward side of
the islands. Trade winds strengthen and precipitation chances
increase over the weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The return of the trade winds will bring areas of showers over
windward and mauka locations through tonight. Trades weaken
Wednesday through Friday as a trough passes northeast of the
islands. Lighter trades will increase precipitation chances for
leeward areas with the development of a sea/land breeze pattern.

The winds are expected to strengthen and shift easterly late Friday
into Saturday, which will pull additional moisture into the area.
This will increase precipitation chances for early in the weekend.
Highest chances will be on the windward and mauka parts of the
islands.

For Sunday and Monday, tropical moisture is expected to be in the
vicinity of the state due to the potential development of a tropical
system. Most guidance keeps the track of the potential tropical
system south of the islands. While there remains uncertainty in the
forecast since the system has yet to develop, precipitation chances
have been increased for early next week. Please continue to monitor
the forecast as it is subject to change as we get closer to the
weekend and details surrounding the forecast become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate trade winds will maintain through Wednesday. VFR
conditions will prevail tonight with brief mountain obscurations
and scattered showers windward.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect or expected tonight.


&&

.MARINE...

High pressure far northeast of the waters will remain nearly
stationary and slowly weaken for the next couple of days. Trade
winds will continue a weakening trend, becoming light and
variable for most waters by Thursday as daytime sea breezes and
overnight land breezes become established. By late Friday,
moderate to locally fresh trades will begin to build back into the
region as the high drifts southward closer to the island chain.

PacIOOS buoy Barber`s Point has slowly have dropped over the past
24 hours to around 2 feet of swell at 13 seconds as of this
afternoon. Surf along south facing shores will continue declining
through midweek as south swell fades. Another long period south
swell generated from gales just south and east of New Zealand will
begin arriving late this week. Surf along east facing shores will
also continue to fade as background flow becomes weaker. North
facing shores will remain tiny throughout the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

Moderate trade winds will prevail through tonight. Trade
winds will weaken Wednesday through Friday, increasing chances of
showers for the leeward side of the islands. Trade winds increase
over the weekend into early next week with increased chances of
precipitation. The inversion is 6000 to 7000 ft.

&&


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CO
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Vaughan