Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
506 FXHW60 PHFO 251350 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 350 AM HST Wed Jun 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will continue through the forecast period. Expect enhanced shower activity through the rest of today, trending drier thereafter for the latter end of the week. While conditions begin to trend drier, light, embedded showers will persist predominately across windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure continues well northeast of the islands, maintaining breezy trades through the next several days. Expect passing clouds and showers to be embedded within the associated trades, predominately impacting windward and mauka areas, though stray showers may linger for leeward areas. Meanwhile, a weak upper-level trough passing in the vicinity of the islands will maintain presence through the day prior to exiting to the north resulting in some weak instability particularly near Kauai. During this time, shower activity will be enhanced and periods of moderate rainfall can be expected. Model guidance of the Euro and GFS are in fair agreement of upper-level ridging developing east of the islands as the aforementioned trough exits the area. While conditions will begin to trend drier across most of the state, lingering instability may enhance shower activity at times across the island despite overall impacts remaining relatively insignificant. Otherwise, expect moderate to locally breezy trades to continue, which may facilitate light, embedded showers to windward and mauka areas. && .AVIATION... Breezy trades continue across the Hawaiian Islands through the next several days, however, will begin to decrease in strength after tonight. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR conditions at times in showers embedded within these trades resulting in reduced visibility, especially across windward and mountain areas. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the state. AIRMET Tango remains in effect this morning for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through at least this evening as the breezy trade winds persist. && .MARINE... High pressure northeast of the state will drive moderate to locally strong trade winds for the next several days. A weather disturbance passing well north of the area late this weekend should help to ease the pressure gradient and allow trades to gradually ease into early next week. The Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters of Maui County and the Big Island has been extended through late this afternoon and may need to be extended through tonight, though conditions appear borderline. Nearshore buoys continue to indicate a 3 to 4 foot, medium period, south swell passing through the local waters. This would equate to above average surf along south facing shores, though just shy of High Surf Advisory criteria. This swell should gradually fade through Thursday, leaving behind background energy in its wake. A smaller, long period, south swell is modeled to arrive early next week. Surf along E shores remains rough due to breezy trades expected the next several days. Surf along N shores remains tiny through the period. Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will cause minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through Thursday. The Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the daily peak tide each afternoon and may be exacerbated by the current S swell. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Pierce MARINE...Thomas