504
FXHW60 PHFO 310147
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
347 PM HST Thu Jul 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong high will build north of the state while remnants of
Fausto continues to weaken and shifts far northwest. Breezy
easterly trades will strengthen to locally windy levels Friday
afternoon and evening then hold into Saturday. Low inversion
heights could further accelerate winds in complex terrain that
may warrant a Wind Advisory Friday afternoon into Saturday. Trades
will ease back to the usual moderate to locally breezy levels
Sunday into early next week as the high weakens. Typical
summertime showers are expected for windward and mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A surface high far north of the state is driving breezy easterly
trade winds across the state. Satellite and radar show scattered
clouds with limited light showers mainly along windward and mauka
areas, with minimal rainfall statewide this afternoon. The high
will strengthen tonight through Friday as remnant low Fausto
weakens far northwest of the state. Expect an increase in clouds
and showers mainly along windward and mauka tonight as a low level
deck of clouds and showers moves from east to west.

Breezy to locally windy trades are expected Friday afternoon into
Saturday under a dry and stable airmass that will lower inversion
heights to around 5,000 ft. Under these conditions winds could be
accelerated downslope, near mountain tops and ridges, through
gaps in the terrain, and in areas typically exposed to the trade
winds that may warrant a wind advisory. However, uncertainty
remains between the high resolution model guidance running a
little stronger and earlier than the global models. With the drier
airmass, dewpoints are expected to dip below 70 degrees, offering
relief from the recently hot and muggy conditions.

Trades will weaken to moderate to locally breezy levels Sunday
into early next week as Hurricane Genevieve tracks far northeast
of the state, disrupting the trade wind flow. Another round of
hot, muggy conditions could develop by the mid-week as remnant
moisture from Genevieve moves over the state.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to breezy trade wind weather will prevail through the
forecast period. Some MVFR ceilings and visibility in SHRA may
accompany showers mainly over the windward and mauka areas.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect. AIRMET TANGO may be possible
over and immediate S through W of the eastern islands on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

The remains of Fausto are about 300 miles northwest of Kauai this
afternoon. As it continues to move away from the islands, trade
winds will become better established from east to west across the
island chain, due to the high pressure system far northeast of the
islands. Trades are expected to increase Friday, with several
global and high resolution models showing Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds reaching more of the coastal waters. As such,
the SCA for the typical windier waters near Maui County and the
Big Island remains in effect through tonight, and then expands to
all coastal waters east of Oahu Friday morning. The SCA may need
to be expanded to additional waters over the weekend. A weakness
in the ridge to the north of the islands could cause trade winds
to weaken again for early next week.

No advisory level surf is expected through the next week. The
medium period south swell is peaking this afternoon, and is
expected to gradually fade through the weekend. A mix of small
south swells over the next few days will maintain surf along south
facing shores slightly below the seasonal average.

An easterly swell is expected to arrive tonight and persist
through the weekend. This swell is a combination of the short
period trade wind swell, and the medium to long period east swell
generated by Hurricane Genevieve in the East Pacific. North shores
will see flat to tiny surf through early next week, with no
significant north swells expected.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy trades will continue to strengthen to locally windy levels
across the state by Friday afternoon and evening. A drier and
more stable airmass will drop inversion heights to around 5,000 ft
Friday afternoon into Saturday that could further accelerate
winds downslope, along mountain tops and ridges and through gaps
in the terrain. With the low inversion heights, chances of
precipitation will be low and limited to windward areas. While
KBDI will remain below the critical thresholds this hot, dry and
windy pattern could make for some near critical fire weather
concerns, especially for areas above the inversion height and in
the windier areas. Trades are expected to return to more normal
moderate to locally breezy levels Sunday into early next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 6 AM HST Saturday for
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Leeward
Waters-Maui County Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Almanza
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...M Ballard