Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
114 FXHW60 PHFO 110132 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 332 PM HST Fri Oct 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An area of showers south of Oahu has moved northward. Scattered to numerous moderate showers are ongoing across Oahu. Light winds will allow a land/sea breeze pattern to dominate with possible light trades building late this weekend. Winds shift out of the east- southeast next week with a wet and unstable pattern setting up over the islands by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Not many changes were made as the previous forecast remains on track. A low pressure system far north of the islands, combined with an associated trough, will continue to bring a light wind flow pattern to the area through much of the weekend. These should weaken slightly allowing for a slight uptick in winds through tomorrow. With the lighter winds, we should continue to see land and sea breezes over the state. An area of showers south of Oahu has moved northward. Scattered to numerous moderate showers are ongoing across Oahu. There is still an isolated chance for a thunderstorm of two but those should stay over the waters. As the aforementioned low weakens, some moderate trades will filter back into the islands late this weekend. An upper level low digging southward, will position itself just west of the state by the middle of next week. This low will induce a surface trough that will veer and strengthen winds out of the east southeast beginning late Monday and continuing through at least mid-week bringing a wetter and more unstable weather pattern. Clouds and scattered showers will focus over windward and southeastern sides of the islands. While there are model differences it is also to far out to see what if any impacts there will be. && .AVIATION... The general lower level southeast flow across the islands has been weak enough to allow localized sea breezes to kick in early this afternoon. Most sites are experiencing VFR conditions, but the chance for MVFR and isolated IFR within lower clouds and/or showers or thunderstorms still exists into the evening. Thickening clouds with isolated pockets of moderate rain within higher terrain over Oahu has prompted an AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration above 2500 feet that will likely continue into this evening. Showers may shift to Kauai later tonight with possible AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations. Light winds will back a bit more east and strengthen slightly over the eastern half of the state Saturday. && .MARINE... A troughing pattern will continue to weaken trade winds near Hawaiian waters into early next week, allowing for daytime onshore sea breezes to continue along nearshore leeward coastal waters. An upper level disturbance lingering north of the island chain will bring periods of enhanced showers through the weekend. Long range guidance shows increasing southeasterly winds by the middle of next week in an unstable weather pattern with the potential for increasing shower coverage and thunderstorms. A mix of a small medium-period northwest (330 deg) swell and a small short- to medium-period north-northeast (020 deg) swell will maintain small surf along north facing shores through Saturday. The smaller forerunners of a moderate to large long- period northwest (320 deg) swell will build into Hawaiian waters starting Sunday afternoon. This swell energy will build to High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels by Monday, then likely hold through Tuesday before slowly falling below from Wednesday onward. Predicting slightly higher swell heights than the latest swell model guidance indicates, as recent swell model forecasts were too low as compared to nearshore ground truth buoy observations. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend with a series of background south and southwest swells. East facing shores will remain tiny to small through Friday. In addition, a small, medium to long period easterly swell from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla in the East Pacific is forecast to arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas during the peak high tide through Saturday morning. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all coastal areas through Saturday, and will likely be cancelled later Saturday morning following the peak high tide cycle. && .FIRE WEATHER... Light winds and isolated to scattered showers will help maintain fire weather below critical thresholds for the next several days. Inversion heights will range from 8000 to 9,000 feet. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Foster/Blood MARINE...Farris FIRE WEATHER...Walsh