330
FXHW60 PHFO 141529
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
529 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Increased trade winds combined with dry conditions will
elevate the fire weather threat for today. Occasional showers will
favor windward and mauka areas today. For the weekend, we are
continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Lala as it moves west-northwest
towards the Hawaiian Islands. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
Big Island, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Maui County,
and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Oahu, Kauai, and Niihau.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy and dry trade winds today with limited showers across
windward areas.

The main forecast concern for the next few days will
be potential impacts from what is now Tropical Storm Lala. As of 5
AM HST, Tropical Storm Lala was located near 16.7N 149.5W and moving
west northwest around 14 knots (12 mph). Based on the latest
forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Lala is expected
to move near the southern end of the Big Island Saturday, then
continue moving to the west-northwest, with the center of
circulation remaining south of the smaller islands. Impacts from
Lala are expected to begin for the eastern end of the state tonight
night, and continue through the weekend. Remember impacts can occur
well outside the center of the storm. Please stay up to date on the
latest forecasts, and prepare for the potential impacts described
below.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...Damaging tropical storm force winds may
begin as early as tonight across parts of the Big Island. Tropical
storm force winds will reach Maui County by Saturday, with the
potential for tropical storm force winds to impact the rest of the
state later Saturday into Sunday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect
for the Big Island and its surrounding waters, a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for Maui County and its surrounding waters,
and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Oahu, Kauai, and
Niihau and surrounding waters. Localized areas of highly enhanced
and damaging winds are possible over mountainous terrain, even well
away from the tropical cyclone center.

HEAVY RAINFALL...Periods of heavy rainfall are expected starting
with the Big Island tonight, reaching Maui County on Saturday, and
Oahu and Kauai later Saturday and Sunday. Orographic enhancement
will result in locally higher rainfall totals where moist tropical
flow interacts with island terrain. If heavier rainfall persists
over the same locations, flash flooding and rapidly rising streams
are possible. The location of heaviest rain currently favors the Big
Island and parts of Maui. The current forecast has 10 to 15 inches
of rain, with locally higher amounts across windward Big Island.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible on windward Maui and
up 8 inches of rainfall could occur across the remainder of the
island chain. While the highest rainfall amounts will be focused
over windward areas, leeward areas will also have a significant
flood risk. Heavy rain could persist into Monday for some areas. A
Flood Watch has been issued for the Big Island and Maui County from
tonight evening through late Saturday night and for Oahu, Kauai, and
Niihau from Saturday evening to early Monday morning.

LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...Lala is expected to generate a large easterly
swell as it moves northwestward. Surf may build along exposed east
and southeast facing shores from east to west as the system
approaches today. Very large and extremely rough seas are expected
to rapidly increase Saturday and Sunday on exposed southeast and
east shores and may produce damaging surf, significant beach
erosion, and overwash across vulnerable coastal infrastructure,
mainly on the Big Island of Hawaii.

In anticipation of critical new updates with each of the advisory
packages issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS
Honolulu will continue delaying the issuance of our typical forecast
package products (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, etc.) until after
the release of NHC`s suite of products, to incorporate the latest
and most up-to-date information on Tropical Storm Lala.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds will strengthen today and become locally
strong. Scattered showers should focus mainly over windward and
mountain areas, especially this morning. Tropical Storm Lala will
continue to approach the Big Island from the east southeast today
and bring deteriorating weather conditions (MVFR to IFR)
including low visibility, low ceilings, heavy rain, isolated
thunderstorms, as well as very strong winds late this evening
through the weekend for all islands as it moves northwestward up
the island chain.

AIRMET SIERRA is currently in effect for north through east
sections of Oahu and the Big Island above 2500 feet due to low
clouds and showers, but will likely need be extended to all other
islands today as well.

AIRMET TANGO for moderate turbulence remains in effect
immediately south and west of mountains due to strengthening low-
level winds and will likely continue for the next couple of days.
As wind speeds strengthen by the end of today, an AIRMET for
strong winds greater than 30 kt may also needed to be added as
Tropical Storm Lala approaches the island chain from the east
southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy trades continue to strengthen ahead of Tropical Storm Lala
today. As such, the Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to
cover all coastal waters. Lala is forecast to strengthen to a
hurricane on approach to the islands, with hurricane conditions
possible as early as this afternoon once the cyclone reaches the
offshore waters. Coastal waters near the Big Island will see
deteriorating conditions as early as tonight, for which a
Hurricane Warning is in effect and a Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for Maui County beginning Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible for the coastal waters around Oahu
and Kauai by Saturday night, for which a Tropical Storm Watch is
now in effect. Dangerous conditions including torrential rainfall,
a few thunderstorms, and high surf should be expected. Lala will
track WNW through the weekend, clearing the western islands by
Monday. Tuesday into the rest of the week, a return to easterly
trades is expected.

For east facing shores, surf initially trends slowly upward with
strengthening trade winds today, but will begin to quickly build
tonight as an east swell generated by Tropical Storm Lala reaches the
islands. A High Surf Warning has been issued through Saturday night
for very large surf along east facing shores of the Big Island and
Maui as Lala tracks very close to the Big Island. Surf will be highest
for the Big Island, likely exceeding warning level by several feet.
High surf will take a bit longer to build for Maui, but warning levels
should be reached by late Saturday. Advisory level surf is possible
for east facing shores of Oahu and Kauai by Saturday night. As Lala
begins to gain distance from the islands on Sunday, surf will rapidly
trend down. For north shores, conditions may be choppy with some
wrapping swell energy from the east through the weekend.

The High Surf Advisory for south facing shores has been canceled
as the moderate, long period south swell that peaked yesterday
gradually fades through the weekend. Surf just below advisory
criteria along south and west facing shores today will slowly
diminish until another long period south swell arrives late
Sunday into Monday. This may provide a small boost to surf, but
it will remain below advisory criteria for southern shores.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to breezy trade winds and relatively dry air will
raise fire weather concerns today. Criteria for a Fire Weather Watch
are not forecast, but it`s close. Temperature inversion heights will
range between 5,000 to 7,000 feet today. Increasing humidity and
rainfall with Lala will remove fire weather concerns from Saturday
into at least early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tropical Storm Watch for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae
Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-
Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward.

Tropical Storm Warning for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward
West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-Molokai-Lanai Windward-
Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-
South Haleakala.

Flood Watch from this evening through late Saturday night for
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-Kona-
Kohala-Big Island Interior-Big Island Summits-Maui Central
Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-
Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-
Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

High Surf Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Sunday for
Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Haleakala-
Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Hurricane Warning for Big Island-

Tropical Storm Watch for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-
Oahu Leeward Waters.

Tropical Storm Warning for Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea
Bay-Pailolo Channel.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Oswant
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Quesada
FIRE WEATHER...Oswant