853
FXHW60 PHFO 241354
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
354 AM HST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passing far north of the Hawaiian Islands will weaken
the high pressure ridge just north of the state, keeping light to
moderate trade winds in the forecast lasting into Wednesday. Brief
passing showers are possible in this weather pattern favoring the
late afternoon to early morning hours. A stronger cold frontal
low pressure system moves into the Central Pacific basin on
Wednesday, driving the ridge axis directly over the island chain,
and producing light east to southeasterly winds. The forward
motion of the front will likely stall out and diminish west of
Kauai over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern over the Hawaiian Islands this morning appears
to be fairly stable. Temperature inversion heights are around
the 5,000 to 6,000 foot level, supporting brief passing showers
favoring the windward and mountain areas. We continue to see a
high pressure ridge just north of the islands with cold frontal
systems passing by farther to the north. These cold core low
pressure systems will continue to weaken the ridge this week,
keeping trade winds in the light to moderate range lasting into
Wednesday.

By Wednesday evening, this subtle weather pattern changes
once again, as a stronger cold frontal low moves through the
Central Pacific basin. Colder air surrounding this system will
drive the weakened ridge farther south, with the ridge axis
hovering directly over the Hawaiian Islands from Thursday to
Friday. Lighter east to southeasterly winds will develop from
Thursday onward into the weekend, expanding the coverage of
daytime sea breezes to all islands. Not much in the way of
showers during this time period as the ridge over the islands
keeps conditions fairly stable. One exception to this rule will be
along the southeast slopes of the Big Island, where southeasterly
wind flow will lift clouds up the slopes of Mauna Loa, enhancing
clouds and showers over Kau and Puna Districts.

These lighter winds will continue through the weekend as the
forward movement of an approaching cold front appears to stall
out as the boundary dissipates just west of Kauai. Light southerly
winds may increase shower activity over Kauai and Niihau from
Saturday to Sunday. Model solutions are fairly inconsistent from
run to run on these enhanced shower impacts. The rest of the state
appears on the drier side in an east to southeast wind and a
hybrid sea breeze pattern during the day over each island. Another
stronger cold front approaching the islands from the west may
bring another round of wet weather with southerly winds by early
next week, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate trade winds will continue for the next few days.
Terrain sheltered leeward areas will see expanding coverage of
daytime sea breezes. Brief passing showers are expected in the
later afternoon to early morning hours. TEMPO MVFR is possible in
passing showers.

No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient back to the surface high centered about
1,600 nm northeast of the islands will weaken as the high exits
east. Thus, today`s moderate to locally fresh easterly trade
winds will begin to fall off through the week. A large North
Pacific storm will push a cold front in the vicinity of Kauai and
Niihau next weekend. The approach of the front will weaken and
veer winds more southerly through the holiday. The tail end of
this front will likely pass north of the island chain this time
next week. A decent size northwest swell passage over Thanksgiving
may push seas to near Small Craft Advisory thresholds. A large
northwest swell will likely lift seas to SCA heights (10 ft or
higher) this time next week.

This morning`s moderate size, medium period northwest swell
(320-340 degree) will continue to fall through Tuesday. This will
result in near head high surf this morning over better northern
exposures before falling to waist high by tomorrow. A slightly
larger size, long period northwest swell (330 degree) is scheduled
to arrive Wednesday, fill in and peak on Thursday. This swell
will result in solid High Surf Advisory level surf with the
possibility of surf just touching High Surf Warning heights during
its peak Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A large storm
force low moving up from the West Central Pacific may drive a very
large northwest swell toward the islands late this week. As of
now, this swell is forecast to arrive early next week and could
generate XL size surf along north-facing shores.

Weakened trades will result in a decline of east-facing shore
chop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds and humidity levels will remain below critical fire weather
thresholds this week. Brief passing showers will trend higher
during the typical late afternoon to early morning hours.
Temperature inversion heights will range from 5,000 to 6,000 feet
elevation today near Maui and the Big Island.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Blood
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin