493
FXUS64 KHGX 170543
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New OVERVIEW, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Seasonal temperatures are expected for the rest of the week
  along with heat indices in the lower 100s.

- Chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can
  be expected each day. Stronger storms could lead to gusty winds
  and periods of heavy rainfall.

Cotto

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Rest of Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Tranquil conditions are expected during the overnight to early
morning hours with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low
temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s inland and the
upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.

Slightly drier conditions expected Tuesday as the eastern edge of
the mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico extends closer
into Southeast TX on Tuesday and slightly lower surface PWs
(between 1.4 and 1.8 inches) help limit shower and thunderstorm
development during the day. Models also show the upper level
trough axis moving into the LA region in the morning, allowing for
the ridge to have a stronger influence. Although we are expecting
lower chances of rain, there might still be enough heating and
instability to support some showers and thunderstorms, in
particular over areas near and south of I-10 during the afternoon
to early evening hours. Stronger storms may be capable of
producing gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and small hail. The
heavy rain could lead to ponding of water along roadways and poor
drainage areas.

For the rest of the area, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and
southerly winds at around 10 mph. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices will range between
100-105 deg F. Make sure you take extra precaution if you plan to
spend time or work outdoors and practice heat safety. Take
multiple breaks, limit sun exposure, and drink plenty of fluids.
Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. If it`s too
hot for your hands, then it`s too hot for their paws. Rain chances
decrease Tuesday evening as we loose heating and instability. The
low temperatures will be slightly warmer and range between the
mid to upper 70s for most of the inland areas.

An upper-level trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains
Wednesday into Thursday, which may give us a better chance for
rain. However, the presence of the mid-level ridge may be enough
to limit most of the shower and thunderstorm development. It still
looks like Thursday may be the better day for rain chances, thus,
continued with the NBM solution and kept 10-30% PoPs for
Wednesday and 20-40% for Thursday. The high temperatures will
remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices will be in
the lower 100s. Breezy conditions is also expected mid-week as a
low level jet develops over Southeast TX.

For the end of the week and into the weekend, expect a typical
summer-like weather pattern with isolated to scattered showers and
storms developing over the water and coastal locations during the
morning hours and then expanding inland during the afternoon.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Some lingering isolated thunderstorms remain over parts of SE
Texas this evening, mainly near SGR. However, numerous outflow
boundaries from storms earlier today continue to propagate across
the area could result in variable wind shifts. These wind shifts
will not last long, about 30 minutes or so, before southerly winds
redevelop and persist through the rest of the period. The storms
that still remain currently are expected to weaken and dissipate
by sunset. Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, but a period of MVFR conditions are possible at CLL, UTS,
and CXO late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Scattered low
cloud (around 2000ft) will reach all the way to the coast, and
there could be brief periods of these clouds becoming more BKN,
but generally VFR conditions will prevail for terminals along and
south of I-10.

Warm and humid conditions are expected again on Tuesday, so pop-up
afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible. Coverage should be
less than today, but cannot out rule an isolated storm impacting a
terminal at some point in the afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 4
feet are expected throughout the next several days. Winds will
slightly increase late Tuesday into late Wednesday as the
pressure gradient tightens and a low level jet develops. Seas
may rise to around 5 feet for the offshore waters. Caution flags
will likely be needed. Persistent onshore flow will result in a
high risk for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day.
Some storms could briefly lead to higher winds and elevated seas.
Brief waterspouts cannot be ruled out.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  76  92  75 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  92  77  91  77 /  30   0  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  81  89  81 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

OVERVIEW...Cotto /24/
DISCUSSION....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto /24/