848
FXUS64 KHGX 020000
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day,
  peaking today through early Sunday. Locally heavy rain will be
  possible and could lead to instances of flash flooding.

- The heavy rainfall threat shifts from the Brazos Valley on
  Thursday/Friday to the coast on Saturday/Sunday.

- Daytime temperatures are expected to drop to more seasonal
  levels in response to rain and increased cloud cover.

- Cold front pushes through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

WV imagery shows a deep plume of moisture associated with the low
pressure that is now centered over the TX/OK panhandles. This plume
of moisture encompasses the eastern half of the state, and PWAT
values have certainly increased in response. Current satellite
derived PWATs show a pocket of 2.3" west of the I-10 corridor, with
most of southeast Texas seeing 2.0" values. Surface analysis shows
the cold front currently positioned in a S to N orientation from Del
Rio to just west of Wichita Falls with a line of storms traversing
the Hill Country and DFW.

Out ahead of this line, strong moisture convergence and continued
onshore flow in the lower levels has resulted in scattered showers
with isolated thunderstorms moving northward through the area from
the Gulf.

Expecting this line of storms to reach the Brazos Valley area around
mid-late afternoon and slowly progress eastward through the evening
hours. Given the moist profile over our area, expect that some of
these showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rain rates of 3-
4"/hr. The storms this afternoon at least have some good forward
motion, so they aren`t sticking around long enough to drop heavy
rain for a prolonged period. A bit difficult to tell exactly where
the front stalls as it becomes more diffuse the further it gets into
southeast Texas. Latest guidance seems to have it stall more across
the coastal counties as opposed to just offshore. With less
favorable dynamics aloft, storms should weaken as they approach the
Houston Metro.

Several locations around the Houston Metro have received anywhere
from a trace to around an inch of rain so far today, courtesy of
discrete cells out ahead of the main line. Expected rainfall
amounts through tomorrow night range from a trace to around 1"
along the coast into the Houston Metro. Further north and west,
expected amounts increase to around 2-3". Brazos Valley area
remains in a Moderate Risk for rainfall, and while 2-3" doesn`t
sound like a lot...this is more generalized. What we are
monitoring is the potential for this line to slow down
significantly as it enters the Brazos Valley and for heavy
rainfall rates within the overall line. While widespread higher
totals aren`t anticipated, any locations that experience the
prolonged period of higher rainfall rates may also experience
flooding. Soils are dry enough to be able to handle most of the
rainfall, but if we do have prolonged periods of heavy rainfall it
may be difficult for the rate of absorption to keep up.

So, as we get into early Friday morning most of the area will see a
lull in activity. The focus shifts more towards the area south of I-
10 and west of I-45 with the looming cold front, a closed low over
Mexico providing mid-level support and continued moisture advection.
This area is also able to handle a few inches of rainfall, so not
anticipating much in the way of flooding concerns at this time.

Through the day Friday we will see showers and thunderstorms push
develop over inland areas as we remain in a moist environment and
vort maxes move overhead. Will need to pay attention to how strong
moisture convergence is along the coast Friday, and to a coastal
trough that will be in the Gulf. Most of the expected rainfall
continues to remain offshore, but could squeeze out another 2-4"
this weekend. WPC does maintain a marginal to slight risk for the
coastal areas through the weekend.

Next week is anticipated to bring cooler and drier weather into
southeast Texas (fall fanatics rejoice!). An upper level trough is
projected to dip down into the northern/NE CONUS and a cold front
will push through the E CONUS with high pressure following in from
behind. The tail-end of this front looks to arrive in our area
sometime Monday into Tuesday. Not expecting a substantial cooldown;
however, the weather will feel noticeably drier and cooler.

Until then, our high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s
with lows in the 70s.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The infamous boundary we have been alluding to this week is making
its way into the region. The leading edge of this boundary is
currently oriented NE to SW, producing heavy downpours, gusty
winds and some lightning. KUTS is currently experiencing the brunt
of this line, and KCLL, KSGR, and KIAH may experience these
conditions in the next couple of hours as this line continues to
move slowly east. KCLL sits in a more stratiform region, and will
likely experience on and off SHRA overnight. Later this evening,
storms begin to dissipate. Given the moisture-rich environment, it
will be no surprise if some SHRA activity continues over night,
especially for areas west of I-45. There looks to be a period of
redevelopment overnight, from about 06-10Z, where scattered
showers and thunderstorms may pop up near the terminals-- a VCSH
is included to account for this. Otherwise, showers/storms develop
again tomorrow late morning through late afternoon. Coverage will
be scattered to numerous in nature. Again, these storms will be
capable of producing heavy downpours, gusty winds, and some
lightning. Note that CIGS prevail as low end VFR. Where storms
develop, CIGs may briefly lower to MVFR.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Moderate southeasterly winds and gradually building seas (peaking in
the 5-7 ft range) will persist through late Thursday. Small craft
should exercise caution through tonight. Water levels peak around
or just above 3.0-3.3 ft MLLW during high tide over the next few
days, so not enough for coastal flooding hazards but high enough
for mariners to take note. Daily chances of showers/storms
continue especially during the overnight to early morning hours
over the Gulf. Rain chances look to peak over the weekend along
the coast and the Gulf as a frontal boundary and a coastal weather
system interact.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  84  70  83 /  80  70  60  80
Houston (IAH)  77  89  75  87 /  40  70  50  80
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  80  86 /  30  60  80  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ195>197-210-211.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Bailey