658
FXUS64 KHGX 111940
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
140 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning through this evening for portions of the
  Brazos Valley due to low RH, dry fuel, and gusty southerly
  winds.

- Elevated winds over the coastal waters will lead to small craft
  needing to exercise caution this evening through early Wednesday
  morning.

- Expect a gradual warming trend along with higher humidities
  through the rest of the week.

- Next weather system approaches Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The main story through the next few days will be the continued dry
conditions expected over SE Texas as upper-level ridging builds
over the region. Read more on fire weather concerns in the Fire
Weather section below. The rising heights and southerly flow at
the surface will lead to an increase in temperatures and moisture
across the area. Afternoon highs will likely climb into the low to
mid 70s for much of the area today, and then into the upper 70s
to low 80s by tomorrow. High temperatures will then be in the low
to mid 80s through this upcoming weekend with overnight lows
climbing from the low to mid 50s tonight to the mid to upper 60s
by Saturday night.

The forecast gets a bit more uncertain as we head into the new
week as the upper-level ridge begins to shift to the east/breaks
down. A weak shortwave embedded in the flow aloft will bring a
chance of scattered showers or storms as early as Saturday night
into Sunday. There will be continued chances of precipitation
through next week as a strong upper level low develops off the
coast of California and it ejects weaker disturbances that pass
through the Southern Plains.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 435 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, so only a
wind forecast. Southerly winds will pick up this afternoon with
10-15 kt sustained winds and 20-25 kt gusts. Expect winds to
gradually subside going into the evening/overnight hours.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A tightening pressure gradient will be leading to increasing
onshore flow this evening through tomorrow morning with winds
around 15-20kt and occasional gusts to 25kt possible over the
Gulf waters. If these gusts become frequent enough, then an
upgrade to a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. The increase in
winds will also lead to wave heights to climb to 3-5ft. A relaxing
gradient will to a lowering of the winds by late Wednesday
morning, but the southerly flow will persist through the rest of
the weekend. The onshore flow and wave heights will increase again
over the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens again. Rain
chances remain near zero through the remainder of the workweek,
but an approaching disturbance from the west may bring scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning on the later half of
the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM Tue Nov 11 2025

Dry vegetation, low humidity, and gusty southerly winds has led
to critical fire weather concerns in portions of the Brazos Valley
this afternoon where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Dry
conditions are also being seen for most of the area of the
Warning area leading to elevated fire weather concerns, but winds
are lower thus keeping the RFW from being expanded. These
conditions, especially within the RFW area, will allow for quick
fire starts - so, please follow local fire restrictions.

Southerly flow will increase tomorrow leading to an increase in
moisture across the region helping to alleviate some of the fire
weather concerns. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be in the
40-50% range for most of the area with these conditions persisting
for the remainder of the week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  52  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  55  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  65  78  70  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ195>198-
     210>212.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 6 PM CST this evening
     through late tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler