


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
292 FXUS64 KHGX 092339 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 639 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Cooler and drier conditions begin today and continue over the weekend. - Small Craft Advisory in effect through Friday afternoon. Caution Flags likely in the bays overnight/early Friday. - Coastal Flood Advisory now in effect through Friday afternoon, may continue into the weekend with elevated tides. - Increased fire weather danger over the next few days, especially on Friday due to dry fuels and low RH. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 East/northeast winds have develop across the area today, with a slog of drier air expected to filter into the area this afternoon/tonight. Afternoon temperatures won`t feel dramatically cooler, though highs should be a tad lower on the whole, mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Morning lows will see a more significant drop, reaching the 50s/60s inland and lower 70s along the coast. The addition of drier air with ridging aloft should suppress rain chances on Friday through early next week. Onshore winds are forecasted to return Saturday evening, allowing moisture to rebuild Sunday into next week. High temperatures should remains around the same (upper 80s/lower 90s), due to the ridge being flattened by disturbances passing to the north. The mid/upper level ridge should shift eastward slightly towards the northwestern Gulf coast next week, briefly strengthening to 593 dam again by Tuesday. This will bump highs up a tad, though they`ll still be in the same generally range. Rain chances will still be slim to none during this period. However, models are suggesting that a tropical wave/low may move through the southern Gulf during the later half of the work week. We could start to see rain chances return during this period, though it`s a bit too early to call. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 VFR at all terminals this morning. Winds increase out of the NE this morning to around 10-15 kts, with potential for higher gusts at GLS. Otherwise, few to scattered clouds in the upper levels. Winds weaken to around 5-10 kts during the overnight hours into Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 VFR conditions and northeast flow to continue through the TAF periods. Winds will decrease this evening. Near the coast, winds will increase again overnight. By mid/late morning, winds are expected to pick up and most inland areas. Coastal winds should decrease by the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Trinity, Walker, Polk, San Jacinto, Colorado, and Wharton counties. Seeing winds around 10-20 mph this afternoon, though on the whole these should decrease on Friday into the weekend. Relative humidity is still anticipated to fall to 30-50% this afternoon for inland areas as drier air fills into the region. On Friday, relative humidity is forecasted to fall to 20-30%, improving slightly on Saturday as onshore flow returns. 10hr Fuels are forecasted to fall below the 10th percentile across region on Friday, with many locations anticipated to fall below the 3rd percentile. Texas A&M Forest Service is forecasting a moderate-high fire danger rating, with a few isolated spots rated at very high. While wind speeds are not expected to reach the level necessary for a Red Flag Warning, conditions will certainly be favorable for increased fire danger. Caution should be exercised when working with open flames or operating equipment that can cause sparks, especially in drier locations. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 66 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 85 72 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Self MARINE...03