Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
853 FXUS64 KHGX 271130 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 530 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Northeast winds will continue to bring in cooler temperatures through the holiday. Expect a Thanksgiving with fair weather and temperatures very near or just slightly below average. - Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms associated with our next front coming over the weekend. Monitoring the potential for isolated strong storms and heavy downpours. - An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 The exciting part of this forecast is the noticeably cooler temperatures...the sad part? These temperatures are considered seasonal, so while it`s a noticeable difference compared to what we have been experiencing in SE Texas, our current airmass has merely brought us the temperatures we normally see this time of year. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, Thursday is looking to be on the drier side...so might not be the time to try frying a turkey for the first time...or at the very least, if you plan to do so just make sure to steer clear of ignition sources and have a means of extinguishing any flames quickly. Additionally, double check local burn restrictions and be sure to comply with any burn bans. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise again on Friday as winds swing around to onshore and increase in speed. This will provide a decent amount of moisture return (PWAT values are around 1.25" on Saturday) and our next shot at rain across SE Texas as another cold front pushes through. WPC does have the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday. The factors at play are the ongoing drought and how fast this system progresses through the area. ECMWF is the wetter solution and has a longer duration of rainfall, while the GFS has the system moving through a little more quickly with pockets of heavier rainfall. In any case, will need to monitor over the next couple of days as short- term models come into the picture to gauge the potential for excessive rainfall. Further into the forecast period will be another shot of colder air behind this weekend`s front. Details of *how much* colder are still pretty fuzzy. Ensembles show a faint signal and NBM is pulling in temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north of I-10 Monday night and for more of the area Tuesday night and Wednesday night. NBM does tend to struggle with cold fronts at the start of the season, so will be keeping an eye on trends over the coming days in order to determine the probability of freezing temperatures for more of SE Texas early next week. Daytime temperatures during the latter part of the weekend into early next week appear to struggle to get out of the 50s with a few locations across the northern counties struggling to even make it into the 50s. Again, this is LATE in the period, so it is important to not get too hung up on values...but at the very least, be aware that colder temperatures are on the horizon! Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR with light northeast winds today, veering to the east Friday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Marine c conditions are not expected to become calm, but low enough that an advisory will no longer be needed...temporarily. At the end of the week, onshore winds resume and an increase back to advisory-level winds and seas appears likely for at least a portion of the weekend. The chances for showers and thunderstorms increases going into the weekend. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 43 64 57 / 0 0 0 60 Houston (IAH) 65 45 67 57 / 0 0 0 40 Galveston (GLS) 67 59 71 64 / 0 0 0 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...47 MARINE...Bailey