256
FXUS64 KHGX 171913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Though the next seven days look quite seasonable, that doesn`t
mean nothing`s happening. Some of the key things to note for the
rest of the week and this weekend:
- Increasing winds this evening into tomorrow will create choppy
  waters on the bays and raise seas on the Gulf. During this
  stretch of higher winds and seas, small craft should exercise
  caution.
- The stronger onshore winds will also impact conditions at Gulf-
  facing beaches as well. Though the Galveston Beach Patrol is
  currently flying yellow flags, increasing winds will also boost
  the potential for dangerous rip currents.
- Our typical daily pattern of showers and thunderstorms will be
  with us, providing isolated to scattered rain chances each day.
  Though not supportive of any sort of broad severe weather
  threat, the strongest storm or two of the day will be capable of
  producing gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A look at visible satellite imagery (or, you know, a look out the
window) will show plenty of cloud streets across Southeast Texas
early this afternoon. For the most part, these clouds are quite
benign looking but we are also seeing some isolated development of
showers. For now, this is pretty much in the coastal half of the
area, with no showers showing on radar north of
Brenham/Conroe/Cleveland but we should see this isolated
shower or storm activity gradually spread inland deeper into the
afternoon.

Another thing we`re seeing today is developing low pressure out
over the Panhandles. This low isn`t heading our way specifically,
as it will instead cross to the east, then eject northeastward
towards the Great Lakes over the next day or so. However, what
this will do is tighten the pressure gradient for us between that
developing low and the Bermuda high for the next 36 or so hours.
This will be most apparent on the coastal waters and at area
beaches, where the lack of friction from the Gulf will let winds
crank up a little bit more, though even inland we should see some
gusts up to around 20 mph. This will cause tougher boating
conditions for small craft, and increase the potential for life-
threatening rip currents on Gulf-facing beaches.

The onshore flow does also show some impact on moisture levels as
precipitable water values rise from a 1.5-1.75 inch range to
around or a little above 1.75 inches. In SE Texas fashion, this is
both a fair amount of moisture available for afternoon storms, and
also nothing terribly far from the climatological norm. The key
impact for us is that coverage of diurnal storms does look a
little bit higher for us deeper into the week. And, as always,
though most showers/storms will provide manageable, cooling
amounts of rain, the strongest storm or two of the day can always
get a little bit extra in producing gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Should one of those top-end storms fall over a place
that is particularly susceptible to flooding, we could see some
highly localized issues briefly crop up.

Temperature-wise, it`s much the same story. Things don`t look to
stray too far above the seasonal averages, and...well, even those
heat conditions can be hazardous to vulnerable folks if they are
unable to get relief. Expect peak heat index values in the
100-105 range. For those working outside in exposed conditions,
forecast wet bulb globe temperature values are in the moderate to
high risk range daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR with gusty south winds today as cloud bases rise above 030,
even if they do remain BKN at times. Isolated showers and storms
today, which looks to maximize around the Houston terminals due to
the seabreeze and peak heating lineup. Activity fades in evening
as sun goes down, with gusts easing off through the night as well.
Higher confidence in MVFR CIGs farther north (CLL/UTS/CXO), but
also have some FEW/SCT mentions farther south as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Onshore flow is expected for the next several days. Though
generally moderate, stronger winds are expected from late tonight
into Wednesday. During this period, winds will increase to 15 to
20 knots and seas may rise to around 5 feet for the offshore
waters. Small craft should exercise caution in these conditions.
There is a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms through the
upcoming weekend.

At the coast, the persistent onshore flow will lead to the
potential for strong rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches. These
high risk for rips will persist deep into the week. Tide levels
will also be above astronomical norms with the persistent onshore
flow, but for the time being appear to be around or below 2.5 feet
above MLLW at high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  77  91  76 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  92  78  91  77 /  30   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  82  88  81 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
     through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs