815
FXUS64 KHGX 161056
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Dry, but hot today as weak high pressure builds over the region.

- Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of
  showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the
  northern Gulf on Wednesday, giving it a 40% chance of
  development into a tropical system in the next couple of days.
  Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely
  late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A slight increase in mid-level ridging and drier air moving into the
region will result in the low rain chances on Wednesday through
early Thursday - practically the lowest rain chances we`ve had in
over a week. There still might be an isolated, short-lived shower
that develops thanks to daytime heating on Wednesday afternoon, but
overall we will be rain free through early Thursday. However, the
increasing heights aloft and reduced moisture will lead to afternoon
temperatures climbing into the upper 90s in spots along the I-10
corridor.

Rain chances do begin to increase from the east late Thursday with
chances increasing as we head into Friday. This increase in moisture
will be associated with the disturbance currently located in
northern Florida that the NHC is monitoring for development into a
tropical system as it tracks through the northern Gulf over the next
few days. NHC gives it a 40% chance of development into a tropical
depression or named storm within the next 2 days - more on that in
the tropical section below. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will be bringing a surge in PWATs (up to 2-2.4"), so we
can expect increased rain chances with locally heavy rainfall
possible Friday through early Saturday. WPC has placed the I-45
corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on
Friday with eastern Polk, eastern Liberty, and most of Chambers
county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). WPC continues the risk of
Excessive Rainfall into Saturday, but shifts the threats further
east with areas east of I-45 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) and
the Slight Risk out of our region and more towards the TX/LA border.

Looking past this potential tropical system, expect warming
conditions Sunday into the start of the work week with temperatures
rising back into the mid 90s (and possibly into the upper 90s). With
some drier air in place, rain chances will remain on the lower-side
with PoPs maxing out near 15-20% during the afternoon hours thanks
to daytime heating.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in our northern zones should trend to VFR
by mid-morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. A
prevailing southerly wind is expected to develop this morning,
becoming more southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds generally
around 10 knots though occasional gusts over 15 knots cannot be
ruled. Winds should decrease by the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Light onshore winds around 5-10kt (and gusts to 15kt) and seas of 2
to 3 feet will persist through the next few days. Drier air has
moved in, so expect much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through early Thursday.

From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to
increase as a tropical disturbance approaches SE TX from the
northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the
development and track of this disturbance and more information will
be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters on Wednesday.
NHC maintains a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours as
the system moves through the northern Gulf. Regardless of
development, we can expect the increased rain chances late Thursday
through Friday or early Saturday. Current wave modeling does not
factor in any tropical development, so its possible that wave
height forecast may increase for Friday *IF* the system does
strengthen. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts.

Fowler

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Not much change in this discussion that hasn`t been talked about in
the previous discussions. NHC is monitoring a disturbance, currently
located in northern Florida, for strengthening into a tropical
system giving it a 40% chance of development within the next 2 days.
Conditions are favorable for development, but there remains
uncertainty in the forecast track of this system. This system
will move westwards through the northern Gulf, but how far west it
gets before turning northwards is uncertain (for now, most
guidance has it turning northwards into Louisiana before reaching
our region, if it develops at all, but this guidance may change
once/if a center of circulation develops), and how far offshore
the center of circulation develops (a track closer to the coast
means less time over water and potentially drier air impacting
development).

Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an increase
of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through Friday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  72  94  74 /   0   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)  95  75  93  76 /  10   0  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  80  90  80 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler