138
FXUS64 KHGX 141132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the area today.
   Temperatures should remain above normal for most of the week.

 - Diurnally driven isolated thunderstorms possible this week;
   mainly locations closer to the coast.

 - Increased winds, seas, rain chances in the marine waters late
   Wednesday into late Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Looking for some scattered shower/storm development near the
Matagorda Bay area this morning...eventually expanding northward and
eastward as we get some heating today. Better chances/coverage
should generally be southwest of a Brenham-Galveston line, but
going to throw in 20% POPs across the majority of the area as
guidance continues to under-perform in terms of its northward
extent in the late afternoon and early evening. Will maintain the
Heat Advisory again today, though am expecting the 107-110F heat
indices probably just for a limited duration.

Otherwise, center of mid-upper ridging should continue tracking
ewd into the Tennessee Valley into midweek. Subsidence should
limit, but not completely eliminate, rain chances Tue-Wed. During
the second half of the work week, the ridge gets a nudge back
into Texas as a trof (and eventual cutoff low) digs down the east
coast; across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf. With
one exception, overall rain chances will probably remain on the
low side for most of the region with the return of better
subsidence during the second part of the work week.

That one exception will probably be in the Wednesday night-Thursday
night timeframe. Surface ridging to the north and an easterly wave
tracking across the Yucatan will produce a moderate easterly fetch
across the Gulf and drive some higher PW air our way. Most of this
moisture and higher rain chances will mostly be confined across
southern parts of the CWA...and especially offshore.

This weekend, the more unsettled wx should remain across the
eastern half off the Gulf Coast (on the east side of the cutoff
low), though we could see some isolated-scattered activity on its
far western outskirts closer to our eastern counties at times. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light patchy fog occurring north of I-10 this morning. KCXO
currently at MVFR due to VSBYs. All other sites at VFR. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail through the day. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop this morning along the coast, with
activity moving inland this afternoon. Any showers and storms
should taper off with loss of daytime heating. Winds will
generally be light out of the south through the day today,
transitioning to light and variable overnight.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2-3 foot seas will prevail
for the next couple days. Look for some late night through early
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Look
for increasing easterly winds, building seas (4-6ft), and rain
chances Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Caution or Advisory
conditions could be possible. Winds and seas gradually diminish
late Friday into the weekend.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  76  99  75 /  20  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  94  78  94  78 /  40  20  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  91  83 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>237-335.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47