Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
893 FXUS64 KHGX 272350 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 650 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 - Daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues into early next week, with the highest rain chances occuring on Sunday. - A plume of Saharan dust arrives after Sunday, potentially bringing hazy skies across SE TX. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Typical summer weather pattern this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing along the sea/bay breeze. South to southeast surface winds will continue to keep "healthy" moisture content with PWs into the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range. The combination of Gulf moisture and sfc heating will support this activity through at least early this evening. Residual low-level moisture and light winds will result in patchy low-lying fog by early Saturday morning. The 500mb ridge, that is currently centered to our east, will gradually shift westward tonight and Saturday, bringing a slightly drier airmass across the region. As result, lower rain and storm chances are anticipated for Saturday. Have up to 30 percent chance of PoP, particularly in the afternoon. With the ridge dominating the region, expect temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. The best rain and storm chances return Sunday in response to a tropical wave developing across the eastern coast of Mexico/southwestern Gulf during the weekend. While this system is progged to remain well to the south, deep tropical moisture embedded in the southerly flow will bring decent moisture content Sunday and Monday. At the moment, areas along and south of I-10, and coastal waters will see the best rain/storm chances throughout the day. Confidence in increasing moisture level is medium to high; however, there is uncertainty in intensity and coverage of any showers/storms as a plume of Saharan dust is also on its way to the region. The time of arrival and the thickness of this layer of dust could potentially impact rain/storm chances. As of now, will lean more towards a wetter pattern, with thunderstorms likely through the day. For the rest of the upcoming week, with the combination of daytime heating and seabreeze interaction, a daily risk of isolated to scattered convection and hotter conditions are expected. This is in response to a building ridge to our west. Hazy skies due to the Saharan dust are possible through at least midweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 VFR conditions at all sites this evening. Brief MVFR CIGs possible at CLL around 10Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail with light winds out of the S to SSE. Broken high clouds expected along with potentially hazy conditions due to the arrival of a plume of Saharan dust. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 With the surface high centered to the east, light onshore winds and low seas will prevail tonight into at least late Saturday. Winds could become moderate, especially at night with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. Typical summer weather pattern continues with daily showers with a few storms mainly in the mornings. As we head into the upcoming week, seas and precipitation chances will be on the increase. This is in response to a tropical wave developing/moving across the eastern MX coast/southwestern Gulf. While this wave is progged to remain south of our area, deep Gulf moisture and persistent south-southeasterly flow will bring an uptick in showers and storms Sunday into Monday. Seas will generally remain into the 4 to 6 ft range during this time-frame. Beyond Tuesday, light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas can be expected along with a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and storms. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along all Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend. The risk will increase to a high level early next week and will generally persist through most of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 93 74 92 / 0 10 0 30 Houston (IAH) 76 92 77 90 / 0 30 0 80 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 0 20 10 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Adams MARINE...JM