467
FXUS64 KHGX 071949
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
249 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

With the high pressure over our area, expect some more hot and dry
weather for both today and tomorrow. With these conditions, our
winds will be light and variable. Patchy fog is possible early
Saturday morning but no other precipitation is predicted. In terms
of temperature, prepare for another hot couple of days with highs in
the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Please make sure to stay safe
and cool while enjoying the rain-free weekend ahead!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The ridging that has dominated the Texas atmosphere this week is
expected to break down on Sunday into Monday with a building ridge
across western CONUS. This will gradually transition our pattern
into a northwest flow regime aloft, with shortwaves and vort
maxes embedded in the flow. With plentiful PWAT and typical
summertime LL instability in place, this would set the stage for
another unsettled pattern. Though coastal and offshore
showers/storms are possible as early as Sunday, most areas don`t
see their PoPs increase until Monday. We will need to monitor a
potential backdoor cold front on Monday. However, there is
uncertainty regarding whether or not the front will make it down
into our region. Showers/thunderstorms are possible even if the
front doesn`t make it into our CWA. Monday-Tuesday PoPs are
generally 20-40%, with the highest PoPs along and east of I-45.
The current PoPs for Wednesday (~30%) may be conservative given
that global models are showing a positive tilted trough digging SW
into the ArkLaTex region.

It is worth mentioning that these NW flow patterns can result in
strong to severe thunderstorm activity that is difficult to
predict, especially in regards to timing. So as we head into next
week, it would be wise to keep up with the forecast and remain
weather aware in case the severe weather risk increases. Regarding
temperatures, high temperatures in the long range are expected to
average in the low 90s with overnight lows in the 70s. These
temperatures are pretty typical for early-mid June.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Expect some relatively calm wind speeds ranging from 0-10kts and
a direction that varies throughout the period. Mostly clear skies
with only a few high clouds possible. There will be some light
misting occuring around 10z, however this should not have a strong
impact on visibility.

Thompson/Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light to moderate onshore flow and low seas are expected to
dominate the marine forecast through much of next week. However,
there will be a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and beyond as the pattern becomes more unsettled. Therefore, we
could not rule out locally higher winds and seas in or near any
thunderstorm next week. We will need to monitor an approaching
frontal boundary from the north / northeast on Monday. A brief
period of offshore winds along with a higher chance of
thunderstorms would occur if the front pushed far enough south.
However, there is uncertainty regarding whether or not the front
will make it this far south.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  95  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  94  75  93 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  80  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self