770
FXUS64 KHGX 021137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier air moves back into the region Sunday. Relative humidity
  will be fairly dry and given the background drier conditions
  could promote the start of wildfires. Recent rain and only a
  modest amount of gusty winds should mitigate a more severe fire
  weather threat.

- Dry/pleasant weather is anticipated most of next week with cool
  overnight lows and warm daytime highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

After an evening that brought a smattering of light to moderate
showers to much of the area, some thunderstorms near the coast,
and even a few hailers towards the Matagorda Bay area, storms have
pushed well offshore, with only some lingering coastal showers
late this evening...and they`ll be done too once the cold front
pushes out over the Gulf.

This sets us up for a drier, cooler, and modestly windier day on
Sunday. The lower friction of the water means winds will be
strongest on the bays and Gulf tonight into the morning. We are
seeing some gusts to the gale threshold on an - elevated - oil
platform, which should translate to some pretty solid small craft
conditions at the surface. Over land, the increase in winds should
be a little more modest - thinking 5-10 mph for most, but edging
into the 10-15 mph range for coastal zones, with some gusts into
the teens.

While a bit breezy, this shouldn`t bring us the same level of
fire weather conditions we had experienced after the last cold
front, despite dry air making its way into the area as well.
Fortunately, while pretty dry, that should also not much the
severity of the last front, as only localized dry spots should dip
much below 30 percent this afternoon. All in all, it still adds up
to a dry with better potential for fire starts, and a little
better potential for fire spread than a typical day - so it will
still be important to obey all local burn restrictions.
Fortunately, though, all expectations are for this afternoon to be
safely shy of critically dry or windy weather.

High pressure looks to take control as early as Sunday afternoon,
meaning winds should pretty quickly wane, and as ridging also
takes command aloft, we`re set up for a pretty chill week to come.
That`s mostly chill in the vibes sense, as for temperatures, most
of the chill will be at night, and particularly the next few
nights. Lows in the 40s post-front will gradually rise into the
50s, and into the 60s by the end of the week. While the temp floor
rises through the week, so too will the afternoon ceilings. This
afternoon is an upper-60s to middle 70s type of day. The first
highs in the 80s look to sneak into the southwest as early as
Tuesday afternoon, and should be area-wide for the second half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Some patchy fog has developed at CXO and SGR this morning bringing
temporary category reductions, but this fog should dissipate
shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail
across the region with northerly winds around 6-10kt this
afternoon that become light and variable after sunset.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Rain and thunderstorms continue across area waters tonight as a
cold front begins to make its way off the Southeast Texas coast.
The threat for severe storms, however, has pushed out into the
open Gulf, beyond the coastal waters out 60 NM. Northeast winds
will steadily increase overnight and conditions necessitating the
Small Craft Advisory will overspread the waters through Sunday
morning. Winds and seas will begin diminishing on the bays Sunday
morning, and continue over the Gulf Sunday afternoon. Light
onshore winds resume Monday and should prevail for a good part of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  46  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  61  72  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs