Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
615 FXUS64 KHGX 151137 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will lead to enhanced fire weather concerns today. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend. - A slight chance of isolated showers and storms is back in the picture Friday and Saturday before a weak cold front moves into the area early Sunday ushering in a return of drier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Remember back in the summer and we were looking forward to October so that we could finally get some relief from the heat? Oh how naive we were to think we`d have some fall-like weather for more than 2-3 days at a time. What do we even call this...Hot-ober, Summer-tober, August 75th (yep I did the math)? With ridging remaining in place going into Thursday, expect the heat to continue. Temperatures will remain near or above normal during the daytime with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through the end of the work week. Low temperatures will have quite a bit of variance depending on the moisture of the airmass in place. A pocket of slightly drier air moves overhead on Wednesday afternoon and lasting through the evening hours, which will allow for temperatures to dip down into the upper 50s to low 60s in the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. There will be more on the impacts of that drier air down in the Fire Weather section down below. As onshore flow becomes firmly established on Thursday, we`ll see low temperatures gradually creeping upward towards the upper 60s to mid 70s by Friday night. The ridge finally nudges eastward going into late Wednesday/early Thursday as an inverted trough pushes in from south Texas while a more robust upper level trough is pushing into the Plains. So, we lose out on the subsidence on Thursday, but we won`t have enough moisture in place yet for the PVA to generate much more than increased cloud cover. It`ll be enough to shave off a degree or two off of the high temperatures when compared to Wednesday. As onshore flow continues to increase going into Friday, we`ll see PW values surge into the 1.6-1.9" range. This will give us a better chance of seeing isolated to scattered convection along the seabreeze, but we could see that convection spread further inland as an embedded shortwave trough remains overhead. Going into Saturday, there will be a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, but FROPA timing still looks to be late Saturday into early Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected ahead of the frontal boundary on Saturday with the highest rain chances along and east of I-45. Compressional heating ahead of the front will lead to Saturday`s high temperatures reaching into the low 90s for most locations. With humidity being on the high side, heat index values are expected to peak in the mid to upper 90s...are we sure we`re in October?! There are still some timing discrepancies on exactly when the front pushes through, but once it does much drier air will filter in behind it going into early next week. While it will be drier, it won`t be much cooler...at least in the daytime. Still expecting high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. On Sunday night, low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s to mid 60s, but onshore flow returns late Monday leading to gradually increasing overnight temperatures going into early next week. This coincides with yet another ridge building in overhead...so the wait continues on the first real cold front... Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions continue today with NE to E winds during the day, becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The landbreeze/seabreeze cycle will prevail through today. Onshore flow returns tonight and strengthens towards the end of the work week. Seas will generally be around 1-2 ft through most of the work week, then with the elevated onshore flow will rise to 3-4 ft Friday into Saturday. Expect risk of rip currents to increase towards the end of the work week as well due to the elevated onshore flow. Chances for shower/storms return as early as late Thursday in the Gulf waters, but the best chances for rain will be on Friday and Saturday as moisture steadily increases ahead of a weak cold front. This frontal boundary looks to push offshore early Sunday with drier air and a brief period of northerly/northeasterly winds in its wake. Batiste && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 With the dry conditions in place, we have another window through Wednesday in which high fire danger is creeping into our portion of Southeast Texas. The main concern here will be for an increased number of fire starts. We`ll have low RH hitting minimums around or below 30 percent today for inland areas. This will directly impact fine fuel moistures, keeping them low, and prime a "thirsty" atmosphere with a modestly high vapor pressure deficit anomaly. With ERC values broadly in the 75-90th percentile indicating drier than usual fuels, all it will take is a source of ignition for a wildfire to begin. The latest update from the Texas A&M Forest Service shows a moderate to high fire danger rating for most of Southeast Texas with a very high fire danger rating for portions of the Piney Woods for today. The winds, on the other hand, appear to be a bit of a mitigating factor. Winds less than 10 knots are anticipated through this dry stretch. So, while we may be in an environment conducive to fire starts, the lower winds should make them spread less quickly and be more receptive to firefighting efforts. Still, it`s best not to have the wildfire in the first place, so taking extra precaution with flame and equipment that can generate sparks is the way to go. Later in the week, we should see improvement in the situation as winds become more onshore, and more humid air works back in from the Gulf. Luchs/Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 59 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 88 66 87 71 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 76 84 76 / 0 0 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Batiste