148
FXUS64 KHGX 241720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1120 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the region
  later this afternoon and evening. A few storms could become severe
  north of I-10.

- A weak front and gradually weakening, remnant showers/storms will
  sag toward the coast later tonight.

- A stronger, reinforcing front pushes through Wednesday morning,
  bringing cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mid-upper trof will continue making its way into the Plains today.
In the llvls, 25-35kt H85 winds will draw 1.5-1.8" PW`s ahead of an
N-S oriented frontal boundary that will be making its way toward
western parts of the region later in the day. Look for some
shra/tstm development across this boundary this afternoon, as it
progresses toward the Brazos Valley after about 2pm or so. Main
concern, however, will be any discreet cells than initiate in
advance. There will be sufficient instability and shear whereas some
of these isolated cells might be capable of becoming severe with all
modes of severe wx a possibility. Locations north of about Columbus-
Cleveland might be the place to watch between 2-10pm. Elsewhere,
there`s probably a lower, but non-zero threat of some stronger cells
Monday evening/night as storms mainly consolidate along the surface
boundary and the threat of the discreet activity lowers. This
boundary will become oriented more W-E with time, and llvl jet
weakens and becomes SW Monday night. This should lead to diminishing
intensity as remnants tracks closer to the coast overnight. So
overall, keep an eye on the stand-alone cells this afternoon &
evening where severe storms are more probable. Elsewhere along the
broken band, I`d look for the main issues to be some 25-50mph gusts
and maybe some hail.

Hires data shows this front sagging off the coast early Tuesday
morning ending the POPs inland...though some of the globals show it
temporarily stalling out during the day with some lingering sct shra
chances in the coastal counties during the day (kind of similar to
the last front). Don`t have strong confidence either way, though I`d
probably lean closer to the hires guidance attm.

Stronger push of cool, dry air arrives late Tue night and Wed
morning which should bring some nice seasonable wx through Turkey
Day.

Onshore winds resume Friday...drawing deeper Gulf moisture into the
region (and warmer temps) this weekend. Global models and blends are
all mostly bullish showing a fairly wet weekend...but with a mainly
zonal flow and lack of a surface boundary/forcing mechanism in the
vicinity, I have a bit of skepticism at this point for total
washouts. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Scattered TSRA has already developed across the region,
warranting at least VCTS starting now for the TAFs north of I-10.
These storms are expected to mostly impact our northern TAFs (CLL,
UTS, and CXO) where there are TSRA TEMPO groups for said storms
early this afternoon. But we will need to keep an eye on IAH as
well over the next few hours. In addition, non- thunderstorm winds
will be gusty, at times over 25 knots. Locally stronger winds,
along with the risk of hail, is expected near the stronger
thunderstorms. This evening and tonight, a line of thunderstorms
is expected to push through the region. The timing of the line is
indicated in the TEMPO groups in the TAFs. Drier air tries to
filter into the region behind the front. But it may not be enough
to prevent lowered vis/cigs late tonight and tomorrow morning.
Vis/cig forecast confidence generally lower than normal tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Look for increasing southeast and building seas overnight and into
Monday. May need some caution flags west of Freeport in the morning.
The next weather system will move into Southeast Texas later today,
with the tail end of some showers and isolated storms toward the
coast Monday night. Can not rule out an isolated strong storm in the
Galveston Bay area between about 10pm and 5am. Rain chances start to
taper off Tuesday depending on when a weak cold front moves off the
coast. A secondary, stronger push of cool dry air will move into the
waters late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. North winds
should increase to 20 to 25 knots as this occurs along with building
seas offshore. Small Craft Advisories will be required. Onshore
winds resume and increase later in the week.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  76  51  64 /  70   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  65  80  56  69 /  80  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  79  61  71 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-350-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47