Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
224 FXUS64 KHGX 292332 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 632 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across Southeast TX with a Slight Risk across East TX. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday. - SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe storms today across the eastern portions of the CWA. - A weak front stalls across SE TX through Saturday, bringing greater rain chances over the weekend, along with modestly cooler temperatures. Isolated higher rainfall totals still possible in the stronger storms. - Rain chances decrease next week as drier air filters into the region. Labor Day should generally be cooler with rain chances continuing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary north of a Navasota to Cleveland line, will spread south through the afternoon, then begin to wane this evening. Some storms could become strong to severe and produce high rainfall rates. Localized flooding is possible across low lying areas and urban areas, but not expecting widespread flooding at this time. Chances increase once again Saturday due to the boundary stalling across the area and combining with deep moisture (PWAT 2.0-2.3 inches). The caveat is that an upper level high pressure system will be sitting just west of the CWA and could inhibit deeper convection. The WPC continues with a Marginal Risk of EXcessive Rainfall on Saturday through Labor Day. Will continue with medium to high rain chances through Labor Day. Drier air begins to filter into the area by Tuesday decreasing the rain chances and bringing slight warmer temperatures back across SE TX. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 The current isolated shra/tsra over the region should diminish this evening. However, we cannot rule out some shra activity overnight into the morning, especially over our northern counties and near the coast. Guidance continues to suggest areas of MVFR and some potential for areas of IFR during the morning hours which is reflected in some of the TAFs. Though our northern areas have the best chance of sub-VFR conditions, we cannot rule out MVFR vis/cigs at IAH during the morning hours. For Saturday, the primary concern will be shra/tsra associated with a frontal boundary approaching from the north. Though there is technically a chance of shra/tsra throughout the day, the best chance of this occurring appears to be during the afternoon hours after 20Z. Winds will generally be light and variable. But locally higher winds are possible in the vicinity of any tsra. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Light to occasionally moderate southerly flow will persist through tonight. A stalled frontal boundary is expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend and lead to light and variable winds. Some storms could produce gusty winds. Winds are expected to turn back to being broadly onshore later next week && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Winds will be light and fairly variable, as a frontal boundary stalls across the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will come this afternoon and evening. Some storms could become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts. Due to the stalled front Saturday, it is expected to bring an even greater coverage of rain and storms on Saturday. Afternoon minimum RH values are expected to generally be 50 to 60 percent on Saturday. Values should be a little higher at the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 91 74 86 / 30 50 40 70 Houston (IAH) 78 91 77 89 / 40 70 30 70 Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 90 / 40 50 50 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO AVIATION...Self MARINE...WFO