Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
076 FXUS64 KHGX 172031 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 331 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate fire danger remains for majority of Southeast Texas due to dry vegetation/fuels today. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s persist into early next week. Heat index values on Saturday will peak in the upper 90s. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through late Saturday/early Sunday ahead of an approaching weak cold front. - Drier air and breezy northeasterly winds behind the front leading to moderate to high fire danger rating for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 It was another toasty one today with many locations hovering in the upper 80s along the coast and in the 90s across greater Houston. Meanwhile, our next opportunity for a weather pattern change is coming down from the Intermountain West in the form of an upper-level trough. This trough will push through the Great Plains in the next 24 hrs. Out ahead of this, unseasonably warm air and dewpoint temperatures will move in off the Gulf through southeast Texas. This will set up portions of the South with a chance for severe weather. SPC currently has portions of the Piney Woods under a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, primarily consisting of a wind threat in the evening/night. Latest CAMs are still not in agreement as to how these storms will pan out. What is the common among them is that the Houston metro will be on the tail end of whatever line of storms moves in from north/central Texas. It may be that there will be more numerous, scattered storms out ahead of a thin line of convective storms. Forecast soundings from these CAMs generally show that the lowest levels will generally be drier than mid- levels, thus keeping DCAPE generally above 1000 J/kg (and thus the severe wind threat). With the loss of daytime heating, so too will the severe threat diminish and may be just a few isolated showers/storms as they move through Houston. This line of storms will be associated with the overall cold front moving through the region. While the wind shift will not be overly impressive, folks will definitely notice the drop in dewpoint temperatures on Sunday with minimum relative humidity values Sunday afternoon ranging from near 20%-30%. While this may be welcomed by some, it will increase the overall fire risk (more on this in the Fire Weather discussion below). Monday morning, forecast lows are expected to bottom out in the low 50s across the Piney Woods to the low 60s along the coastal zones. While this frontal passage will be apparent, it will unfortunately be short- lived as max temperatures climb back up to above-normal for this time of the year by the mid-week. The region generally remains under quasi-zonal flow aloft through mid-week with upper-level ridge influence across the southern half of the state. This will keep PoPs under 20% through Thursday with the creeping of 20% PoPs briefly by Friday afternoon (enhanced by any seabreeze). Enriquez && .AVIATION... (09Z TAF Amendment) Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Difficult to pinpoint any timing at any individual terminal so have generally maintained PROB30`s for shra potential through sunset. A lull in shower activity will keep terminals mostly VFR overnight. Sunrise Saturday morning will see the next influx of scattered shower activity move inland from the open waters, affecting coastal terminals initially before becoming more widespread north of Galveston Bay by noon local. MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected in a shower/thunderstorm. Enriquez && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Onshore flow persists leading to the gradual increase of moisture heading into the weekend. Expect chances for showers and storms to gradually increase through Saturday. Wind speeds may approach the caution flag threshold tonight through Saturday morning to go along with seas elevating to around 4 ft. This increased onshore flow will lead to an increased risk in rip currents through the weekend. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist until a frontal boundary pushes through on Sunday. Expecting a brief period of northerly to northeasterly winds behind the front on Sunday, but southeasterly winds make a quick return by Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Although moisture is on the rise, dry vegetation/fuels remain especially in portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. As a result, the fire danger rating today is still moderate for most of Southeast Texas. The increased moisture means an increase in rain chances, especially for Saturday ahead of a weak cold front that looks to push through on Sunday. On Sunday, we could see an overlap of drier air (minimum RH values 20-30%) and breezy northeasterly winds, which would create another day of elevated fire weather conditions. We are currently looking at a moderate to high fire danger rating for Sunday with those outlined in a high fire danger rating generally north of I-10. Lastly, the vast majority of the counties in Southeast Texas now have a burn ban in place. The only counties that do not have a burn ban as of Thursday night are Brazoria and Galveston Counties. Batiste/Enriquez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 91 65 83 / 0 30 30 0 Houston (IAH) 72 89 70 84 / 0 50 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 85 74 84 / 10 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO CRP AVIATION...WFO CRP MARINE...WFO CRP