253
FXUS64 KHGX 282313
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
513 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty onshore winds are occurring today. This will make for some
  rough marine conditions on area bays and coastal Gulf waters,
  where a small craft advisory is in effect. It will also bring in
  warmer and more humid air to the area in advance of our next
  shot of rain and storms.

- Those rain chances will creep back into the forecast with
  possible showers Saturday morning, but peak ahead of and along
  our next next cold front tomorrow night. There is a marginal
  risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15
  percent chance.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front,
  opening December on a cold note. We can expect to see the return
  of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below
  freezing to a portion of the area, most likely north of the
  Houston metro.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Onshore winds are back in force today. Without even looking at any
numbers, just a glance at flags in the vicinity of the office down
here in Galveston County sees them all standing up and fluttering
in the breeze. Observations around the area range from closer to
10 mph well inland, to the 15-20 mph range nearer the coast with
gusts up above 20 mph. Winds are even more impressive just above
the surface, as the elevated Med Center helipad observation is
showing sustained winds of 25-30 mph and gusts pushing up above 40
mph!

This is particularly important for the weekend forecast as we`ve
got a front coming in tomorrow night, and the quality of moisture
pool we can build before it arrives is going to be pretty key to
the intensity and coverage of showers and storms we`ll see as the
front comes in. Dewpoints around the area are already into the 40s
for much of the area, with only the far northern outposts still in
the 30s.

Looking at the moisture picture a bit more deeply (literally),
satellite estimated precipitable water early this afternoon shows
where we`ve been and where we`re going. Up in the Piney Woods
beyond Lake Livingston, we are still clinging to PWATs around 0.4
inches, roughly half of their normal value. Meanwhile, down around
Matagorda Bay, we are already at 90 percent of normal (0.75-0.8
inches). So usually, if we`re just getting onshore flow back with
24 hours or less until the prime rain window opens and PWATs are
half of normal, I`m going to be pretty doubtful about getting much
in the way of widespread, significant rainfall.

And yet, in talking over the forecast with my shift partner, we`re
still talking about averaging an inch or two of rain across the
area, with isolated high spots to around 3 inches of rain in
storms ahead of/along this front. So what`s the deal? Well, the
fact that also in the spread of our forecast area we go from half
normal PWATs to already rebounding to right around the climo
average and 24 hours of moisture return to go is pretty
compelling. Model guidance remains insistent that we`ll ultimately
get to around or above 1.25 inches across the area, and even
suggesting (particularly the NAEFS ensemble mean) that we`ll get a
small area pooling up to around 1.5 inches and near the 90th
percentile for PWATs this time of year just ahead of the front as
it pushes through Saturday night.

All in all, I`m still buying into high rain chances with numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of and along the front
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. We`ll get a pretty good
indication that we`re on the way if we start to see quick, light
streamer showers developing very late tonight/early tomorrow
morning from deepening moisture and isentropic lift on this
inflow, mostly out in our west near and north of Matagorda Bay.

Going back to that discussion with the shift partner, we`re
settling on that average inch or two total, with isolated spots to
around 3 inches. And my reflexive response to those average
amounts was "gee, that seems a bit high". But looking over
everything that goes into it, and I don`t disagree with any of it.
So we`re going to trust The (moisture return) Process here and
keep with that framing. For late November, this is starting to get
into some fairly high QPF, and given that we typically have cooler
ground convert rain to runoff more efficiently, flooding potential
does become a natural question here. Of course, we have a
background environment of abnormal dryness/drought, so that will
help mitigate concerns. Also, we`ve been quite warm through the
fall, so perhaps grounds will not be so keen to turn the water to
runoff so effectively as well. Regardless, Once we start pushing
90th percentile PWATs, there`s bound to be at least some low risk
that an isolated heavy rainer happens over the wrong spot, so
WPC`s marginal risk seems appropriate for the situation.

Similarly, there will be the question of severe weather. Like WPC,
SPC is also going with a marginal risk across the area. This also
seems reasonable, perhaps tending slightly towards overstating the
risk (marginal risk means at least 5 percent potential for severe
wind or hail, and 2 percent for a tornado). And, reading the text
of the Day 2 outlook, I think they`d probably agree with my
assessment? The same things that they note in their text forecast
stands out to me as well. There`s enough instability to fuel
storms, and probably a sufficient amount for severe weather, but
with the upper trough not digging terribly deep, lapse rates
aren`t great and the CAPE profile is quite skinny, more typically
associated with heavy rainfall over severe weather. Similarly,
shear numbers aren`t high, but they are sufficient and forecast
hodographs show a strong looping shape in the lower levels. A
sneaky mini-supercell dropping some brief damaging winds or even a
brief tornado in an otherwise not very impressive environment
would not be unheard of at all around here, and something we do
need to consider.

So, to quickly summarize, numerous showers and storms, with
isolated high spots for rainfall and even a strong to severe storm
or two seems quite plausible until the front sweeps through late
Saturday night/very early Sunday morning. This will begin our
transition to the next portion of the forecast, focusing on colder
temperatures.

We`re looking for a sharp change in temperatures from Saturday -
with highs in the 70s across the area - to Sunday. Highs for the
back half of the weekend are forecast to only be in the 50s, and
may not even manage to get a 5 in that tens digit way up north in
spots like Caldwell, Bryan, Madisonville, and Crockett. Could see
a number of 49 degree highs way up that way Sunday, and an even
greater potential of that Monday when cold air advection does its
worst/best (all a matter of perspective!)

Overnight, we`re also going to need to start looking at the
potential of freezing temperatures. Tomorrow night will be too
early for that as the cold air advection will just be cranking up
well inland, and really not even getting started yet at the coast.
Still, isolated cold spots up in Houston County could sneak into
the 30s. Sunday night should be chillier, but with a with a lot of
cloud cover and still a bit of north to northeast wind to hold up
temps through mixing, I`m still not looking for any widespread
dips below freezing just yet. I wouldn`t be surprised if some
isolated chilly spots up in Houston County dip below 32 briefly,
though. NBM probabilities of freezing temps Sunday night are in
the 40-50 percent range across a decent swath of the county. And
though NBM probabilities aren`t real-life probabilities, in this
situation I`d expect them to end up a little too low.

But for a more widespread light freeze, Monday night is the night
I`m eyeing. Some things still have me a bit skeptical of a big
temperature crash, such as decent cloud cover hanging out pretty
late into the night and the depth of the post-frontal cold pool
looking to miss us a bit to the east. Winds also look to stay up
and discourage ideal radiational cooling as well, particularly at
the coast. But despite this, the cold advection is going to make
itself known and given we had lows from the upper 30s and the 40s
even last night, we`re not exactly dealing with eroding summery
conditions here. NBM probabilities of freezing temps Monday night
are as high as 75 percent around Crockett, and as high as 30
percent as far south as locations like Cleveland in northern
Liberty County and portions of Colorado County out in the rural
west. This feels like a good qualitative summary of what we`re
looking at, even if the numbers aren`t quite a match with the true
probabilistic distribution. Well north of the Houston metro, a
light freeze seems likely. While not the most probable outcome,
there is a low chance for briefly dipping to that mark down to
just north of the metro, and into the western rural areas.

By Tuesday night, we look to see onshore flow returning, and while
chilly conditions will hang with us a bit into the midweek, it
should effectively end the threat of freezing temps for all but
the northernmost reaches of our forecast area Tuesday night, and
entirely after that. Instead, we`ll be back into the reload phase
for the next weathermaker later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 503 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sustained southeasterly winds of 10-15kt will continue through
Saturday afternoon. Areas south of I-10 will continue to see gusts
to 20-25kt through the next few hours before stopping, but will
return area-wide by the mid-morning hours on Saturday. Winds will
also be shifting more southerly through the day on Saturday. VFR
conditions with BKN to OVC mid/high level clouds will persist
across the region until late tonight, but some lower CIGs (down to
around 2500ft) will begin to encroach CLL and UTS early Saturday
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Increasing moisture
ahead of this front will lead to widely scattered showers across
the area Saturday afternoon. This front is expected to pass
through the area late Saturday evening into overnight Saturday,
and will bring a chance of thunderstorms with its passage. FROPA
will likely occur at CLL between 2-4z, at IAH between 5-7z, and
then off the coast between 7-9z. Breezy northerly winds are
expected behind the front.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Winds are becoming southeasterly today as well as increasing in
speed...allowing for building seas as well. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for all waters. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase ahead of a strong cold front that should be pushing off
the coast after midnight, around 2am, and across the Gulf waters
through the late night and early Sunday morning hours. A few
storms may be on the stronger side. Moderate to strong offshore
flow and elevated seas will persist in the wake of the front. An
upper level disturbance is forecast to push overhead Sunday night
and Monday bringing another chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the waters.

At the coast, stronger onshore winds will push tidal levels above
astronomical norms, but for now appear to stay below 3 feet above
MLLW, which should largely preclude any coastal flooding issues.
The strength of the onshore winds will be more effective in
generating dangerous rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches, and a
rip current statement is in place for that danger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  73  41  50 /  20  70  80  10
Houston (IAH)  58  75  48  55 /  20  50  80  30
Galveston (GLS)  64  76  56  60 /  10  30  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs