526
FXUS64 KHGX 041109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Rising moisture will reduce fire through the weekend, though
  continue to use caution when working with open flames/equipment
  that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots.

- A deep layer of moisture will result in increasing rain chances
  this weekend. Highest chances reside along the coast in
  association with the sea breeze.

- Small craft will need to exercise caution into the weekend in
  the bays due to increased winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory
  has been issued for the Gulf waters for this evening through
  Saturday afternoon due to expected frequent wind gusts up to
  25kt and seas up to 6-8ft possible.

- Beachgoers should also be aware that there will likely be an
  increased risk of rip currents this weekend. Increasing swells
  and winds may lead to minor coastal flooding at times of high
  tide


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A weak upper level low moving across the north-central Gulf will
interact with a layer of moisture brought on by a retreating high
pressure and its associated easterly flow. This will allow for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the
weekend and into the beginning of next week. The highest chances
of activity reside along the coastal areas and Gulf waters;
however, some development could occur south of I-10 in association
with the sea breeze. Areas north of the I-10 corridor have a lower
chance (10-20%) of rain through the weekend. Chances increase
slightly for that area early next week (20-30%). An upper-level
ridge is expected to develop over the state near the middle of
next week, resulting in a significant decrease to
shower/thunderstorm chances. Lingering moisture (PW values near
1.6-1.9") may allow for a few showers along the sea breeze for
counties south of I-10 (around a 20-30% chance) Wednesday through
the end of the work week.

Temperatures continue to run slightly above normal through next
week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

If you are planning on heading to the beach, or being out on the
water, be aware that there are a few hazards to note. Persistent
moderate to strong onshore flow has led to an increased risk of
rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend. While
we technically remain below criteria for coastal flooding, will
need to continue to monitor the potential for Sunday, particularly
during high tide.

Adams

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Lots of lines, but with VFR across the area and expected to stay
that way, this is due mainly to having a wide range of wind
directions thanks to the land/seabreeze circulation. But, in
general looking for eastish winds peaking this afternoon at 5-10
kts inland and 10-15 kts for IAH coastward. Isolated SHRA/TSRA
expected again, but generally not high enough for a PROB30 mention
yet except for pre-dawn coastal showers for GLS. Will have to
trust future shifts to make quick changes should it become more
apparent a terminal will get their number drawn for rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Moderate easterly flow will continue through the weekend with
sustained winds of 15-25kt. This increase in winds will lead to
an increase in wave heights as well with seas of 4-6ft expected by
this evening and possibly some 6-8ft seas later Saturday. This
Advisory will be in effect through Sunday morning. The easterly
flow will persist into at least midweek next week, but is expected
to be lighter. The persistent onshore flow this weekend will lead
to elevated water levels (around 3.0-3.5ft above MLLW during
times of high tide) and an increase risk of rip currents.There
will be a daily chance through at least midweek next week of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the coastal
waters.

Adams/Fowler

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Colorado, and
Wharton counties.

Improving moisture levels are anticipated going into the weekend,
with afternoon RH values ranging from 33-50 percent inland.
Observed 10 hour fuel moisture shows a few pockets below the 25th
percentile, forecasted to rise through the weekend. On the whole,
the fire weather danger should be mitigated by these conditions,
though caution should still be exercised when handling open flames
in any areas with particularly dry vegetation. Be mindful when
handling equipment that could create unintended sparks (i.e. loose
chains). Expect further improvement in conditions this weekend
into next week.

Adams/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  67  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  90  71  90  74 /   0   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  86  76  85  77 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Adams