Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
119 FXUS64 KHGX 160500 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Forecast is still on Track with warm conditions prevailing through much of next week. - Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily basis. - Rain chances remain minimal through Tuesday, then increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching disturbance. A cold front is expected to pass through the area on Thursday bringing a stronger round of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Ridging aloft will continue to bring warm and mostly benign conditions today into next week. Temperatures will be very warm for this time of the year with highs in the upper 70s/80s and lows generally in the 60s/lower 70s. These temperatures are still 10-20 degrees above normal, exceptionally warm for mid-November. A few disturbances passing to the north will weaken the ridge on Monday, causing highs to briefly dip with some slim rain chances during the afternoon hours. Still, ample moisture with light winds & most clear skies will provide favorable conditions for fog during the nighttime/early morning hours. This fog will be diurnally driven, mostly patchy with a few dense patches possible in spots, especially at fog-prone locations like KCXO and KLBX. A few dense patches could impact morning commutes, so plan accordingly. The second half of the work week should be a tad more active due to an upper level low, which is still anticipated to swing across the Desert southwest on Wednesday. Several weaker shortwaves & PVA impulses out ahead of this trough will supply lift necessary for a scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. Rain chances then continue to creep upwards into Thursday as the cold front approaches SE Texas. Models currently ping the FROPA timing for around Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. A line showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along the front, then followed by cooler weather in it`s wake. Guidance is still indicating that the trough associated with this cold front will take on a negative tilt prior to it`s arrival. NBM Mean SFC CAPE caps out around 1000-1500 J/KG ahead of the front, with slightly lower values shown in the LREF ensemble. However, the LREF still shows favorable bulk shear of 35- 50 knots over SE Texas. GFS still shows a corridor of +200m2s2 3km SRH, though it now covers a greater portions of SE Texas with the greatest values still in the Piney Woods Area where upper level forcing is still anticipated to be strongest. The finer details will likely change more over the next few days, but again this high shear/low instability environment still has the potential to produce a few stronger to severe storms with this upcoming cold front. Still a bit of uncertainty as to what happens behind the front. GFS has the front being reinforced by a passing shortwave, while the EURO depicts onshore flow recovering quicker prior to another deep upper level low. Jury is still out of which way things fall. Long range ensembles still suggest declining temperatures through the end of November, though still generally above normal. Around/After Thanksgiving do these ensembles bring more seasonable temperatures. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 558 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions through much of the TAF period, although some patchy to dense fog could lead to IFR-MVFR conditions during the overnight to early morning hours. Fog, if any, is expected to burn off quickly by 15Z. S-SW winds will be light tonight and 5-10 KT by mid-morning Sun. Winds will become S-SE Sun afternoon and evening. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow can be expected through early next week. Patchy fog inland may spill into portions of the northern bays & upper ship channel during the late night and early morning hours each day. Winds, seas and rain chances increase on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Wednesday night into Thursday with a high risk of rip currents along Gulf-Facing beaches. The cold front should move off the coast late Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing a line of showers/thunderstorms with it. Northerly winds settle in behind the front. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 86 67 86 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 64 87 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 69 81 71 80 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...03