648
FXUS64 KHGX 291824
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty onshore winds are occurring. This will make for some
  rough marine conditions on area bays and coastal Gulf waters,
  where a small craft advisory is in effect. It will also bring in
  warmer and more humid air to the area in advance of our next
  shot of rain and storms.

- Those rain chances will creep back into the forecast with
  possible showers overnight into this morning, but peak ahead of
  and along our next next cold front tonight. There is a marginal
  risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15
  percent chance.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front,
  opening December on a cold note. We can expect to see the return
  of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below
  freezing to a portion of the area, most likely north of the
  Houston metro.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A cold front is set to move through the area Saturday night,
bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms along with it. Out
ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to begin overnight as low-level convergence increases
and a shortwave makes it way across the area. This activity is
expected to persist through out the day Saturday and appears to
merge with the front that moves through later that night.

With this scenario, there is the potential for training of storms
to occur and produce locally heavy rainfall. This has resulted in
WPC placing the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall...a couple of caveats with that, though...with being in
a drought, the flood potential highly dependent on how fast the
soil can absorb the rainfall compared to how high the rain rate
is. Typically, in colder weather the soil has a little more
difficulty with quicker absorption. We have been on the warmer
side for this time of year, and dry soils may mitigate the
potential, so the flood potential remains marginal, but something
to be aware of.

Similarly, SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk for severe
weather Saturday. CAPE values are not all that impressive (around
~1000 J/kg, which is enough to help kick off storms, but on the
lower end of the spectrum energy wise)...shear, however, is at a
sufficient level to result in a few organized storms/supercells.
0-6 km Bulk Shear values are coming in around 30-40 kts
...and winds do veer with height...typically in low CAPE/high
shear environments we could get organized storms that could
produce damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes.

Timing of main line of storms has slowed down by a few hours with
the latest guidance. While showers and storms will be ongoing out
ahead of the front, the front itself is not expected to arrive
to the Brazos Valley until around 9 PM (give or take a couple
hours). It is expected to push offshore around 3 AM (again, give
or take a couple hours).

A drastic change in temperatures will occur behind the front
Saturday into Sunday as strong CAA brings a chilly and dry airmass
in the area. Highs for Sunday through Tuesday will struggle to get
out of the 50s for most of the area, with some locations in the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods struggling to even get into the 50s.
Overnight lows will be on the chilly side Sunday night through
Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s.

We will need to continue to monitor the potential for some
locations to get into freezing temperatures Monday night  for
rural areas to the west of the metro and locations to the north of
the metro.

Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, which won`t do much to bring
daytime temperatures out of the 50s, it will put a damper on the
potential for freezing temperatures that night. Onshore flow will
precede the next front later in the week next week.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A somewhat convoluted TAF forecast for the next 24 hours as
passing showers move over Southeast TX during the day today,
followed by an increase in showers showers and thunderstorms
tonight into early Sun as a cold front moves across the region.
Strong storms will be capable of producing strong VRB winds,
lightning, llvl shear, and reduced vis/cigs leading to IFR-MVFR
conditions. Showers will gradually taper off a few hours after
the frontal passage during the morning hours. S winds at 10-15KT
with gusts of around 20KT expect this afternoon, then relax to
5-10KT. In the wake of the front Sun morning, expect N-NW winds
at around 15KTS with gusts of around 25KTS. Coastal locations may
see gusts of around 30 KTS. IFR-MVFR cigs may prevail into the
early afternoon hours for several sites.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

mall Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters as moderate to
strong southeasterly winds and building seas continue. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a strong cold front that
should be pushing off the coast after midnight, around 2am, and
across the Gulf waters through the late night and early Sunday
morning hours. A few storms may be on the stronger side. Moderate
to strong offshore flow and elevated seas will persist in the wake
of the front. An upper level disturbance is forecast to push
overhead Sunday night and Monday bringing another chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters.

At the coast, stronger onshore winds will push tidal levels above
astronomical norms, but for now appear to stay below 3 feet above
MLLW, which should largely preclude any coastal flooding issues.
The strength of the onshore winds will be more effective in
generating dangerous rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches, and a
rip current statement is in place for that danger.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  41  49  41 /  90  80  10  30
Houston (IAH)  76  49  54  44 /  40  70  30  40
Galveston (GLS)  76  58  63  51 /  10  70  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Bailey