Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
973 FXUS64 KHGX 170347 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1047 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s) will persist through most of the rest of the month across Southeast Texas. The potential for Heat Advisory issuance remains elevated as a result. - Without adequate precautions outdoors, cumulative impacts of heat and heat stress will remain a significant risk factor to health (especially for heat-sensitive populations). - Rain chances remain near zero for most of the week, but slight chances of rain return to the forecast going into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 There`s only so many ways to say that it`s hot over and over, so I`m going to consult my handy dandy thesaurus for a new word to keep things fresh! Let`s see...boiling no....scorching is a good one but we can find a better one...sweltering! That`s the one! The sweltering conditions will persist throughout the week, but if you were outside on Sunday you may have noticed that it felt different compared to previous days. A pocket of dry air (PW values below the 10th percentile) pushed in late Saturday and lingered throughout the day on Sunday. So, we had a dry heat versus our typical humid heat. Most of Monday will continue to feature drier air, but low-level moisture will be gradually increasing in the afternoon hours. That means that the dry air will linger overnight into Monday morning, so low temperatures will be mostly in the low 70s once again. It`s not often we get below normal low temperatures in August, so it`s worth the mention. Unfortunately though we`ll be back to low temperatures only bottoming out in the mid 70s to low 80s through the rest of the week. A 598 dam mid-level high remains directly overhead overnight and will prevail through the middle of the week. As a result, rain chances will remain slim to none throughout most of the work week...especially with another pocket of drier air (PW`s less than the 25th percentile: ~1.55") moving in on Wednesday/Thursday. Outside of the heat, the only thing going on weatherwise is patchy fog. Patchy fog potential will persist for at least the next few mornings especially for areas west of I-45. With the mid-level high remaining overhead through at least midweek, expect temperatures to gradually climb. High temperatures will at least flirt with the triple digits for areas along and north of I-10 for most of the week. Dew points are still expected to mix out into the upper 60s/low 70s during the afternoons, which should keep heat indices just below the heat advisory threshold for at least the early part of the work week. Even if a heat advisory is not in effect, it will still be dangerously hot especially for those outdoors for extended periods of time. As we talked about before, low temperatures for the rest of the week will be mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s, so there won`t be much relief from the heat. Now the number one question we get during a hot and dry stretch is when will summer end...the answer is November. The second question we typically get is when is it going to rain again...the answer for most of us is not in the foreseeable future. For a few of you, the answer is late in the work week and over the weekend. After midweek, the mid-level high slides westward towards the Four Corners region which places us in northwest flow aloft. An upper level trough is expected to slide through the Mississippi River Valley going into the weekend with an associated frontal boundary. Now the front is not going to make it here, but it likely will serve as an initiation point for convection to develop and push southward. As a result, chances for showers/storms return to the forecast late in the work week and going into the weekend...not all of us will see this rain though. Took a look at the beyond the future outlook and it looks like more of same for the rest of the month. CPC`s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Great... With sweltering conditions persisting over the next several days, please continue to keep heat safety at the top of your minds for any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat- related illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon, with winds of 5-10KTS generally out of the SSE. Winds become light and variable overnight, going nearly calm at most sites. There is another chance for MVFR CIG/VIS early tomorrow morning at sites west of I-45. There is even a low chance for some IFR CIGs, so we will closely monitor conditions tomorrow morning. VFR CIG/VIS should return shortly after sunrise, and winds turn westerly. Tomorrow afternoon, winds turn once again and settle out of the SSE as the seabreeze passes through. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 A period of benign marine conditions continues with light to occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-3 ft seas prevailing over the next several days. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 83 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...MLG MARINE...Batiste