104
FXUS64 KHGX 242327
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- TORNADO WATCH in effect through 7 PM Tonight. Discrete storms
  capable of all severe hazards, including heavy rainfall as well,
  will be possible ahead and along a cold front.

- Cold front should slow as it approaches the Houston Metro late
  tonight with the severe/hydro threat diminishing as it slowly
  pushes off the coast Tuesday morning.

- A stronger, reinforcing front pushes through Wednesday morning,
  bringing cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Things are already kicking into high gear hear with storms
beginning to fire up ahead of the cold front. The current
environment shows PWs of 1.4-1.8 inches with model guidance
indicated the potential to pool up to 1.9-2.0 inches ahead of the
line. 300mb analysis showed ample omega north of the area with
the RAP/GFS/NAM all showing SE Texas getting clipped by some of
the stronger omega values as it tracks eastward with the upper
trough. LLJ around 25-30 knots peaking near 40 knots in CAM
models. On the whole, dynamics appear modest over the northern
half of our CWA, primarily over the Piney Woods area near areas
like Crockett & Livingston. Thermodynamics is a more interesting
story, which continue to trend upwards with RAP analysis
already 1500 J/KG of ML CAPE. More concerning is a rather
consistent signal in the CAMs pinging on a bullseye of elevated
CAPE in our west/northwestern counties, over 2500 J/KG with
respect to ML CAPE and nearing 3000 J/KG in for SFC/ML CAPE in
some models. Seems to come as a result of the area being plunged
deeper in the warm sector with moisture pooling in advance of the
FROPA... And before I could finish writing this discussion we had
out first TOR warning in place over this area... so my concerns
about this area appear to have been justified, especially now as
now SPC`s mesoanalysis is showing this deeper instability. Shear
is still as robust as it was several day prior with bulk shear of
30-50 knots. 100-200 m2/s2 1km SRH with 20-30 knots of 1km bulk
shear. LCL heights are also generally forecasted under 1500m with
a good swap of the area under 1000m throughout most of the
afternoon.

Seeing better agreement with timing too among models (at least
earlier in the forecast), showing the cold front enter the Brazos
Valley late in the afternoon, reaching College Station around 3-6PM.
CAMs become a bit more split later tonight as the front nears the
Houston Metro. Broadly it seems like it should slow and lose some of
it`s gusto (waning instability and being further removed from
stronger upper level dynamics), moving through the city around 9PM-
1AM... could be even later as hinted at by the FV3 and NAM. The
front should move offshore around 1AM-5AM, though again the FV3 is
dragging its feet, wanting to keep the front on dry land till
daybreak. Still is a very feasible outcome (and thus leaned
closer towards the FV3 with this forecast), but again in such a
scenario the line itself will be far less potent by that point, so
the severe/hydro concerns shouldn`t be prolongued either.

Main takeaway is that we`re expected strong to severe storms ahead
of and along an approaching cold front today & tonight. SE Texas is
under a Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) Risk of Severe Weather and
Excessive Rainfall for today. These storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes and locally heavy
rainfall. The northern half of our CWA will be most at risk of these
severe storms. The threat of heavy rainfall is on the whole lower,
with the greatest risk much more confined to our north/northeastern
most counties, where locally higher rainfall totals up to around 4
inches could occur. Though, any training storms could still result
in some minor street flooding, especially in Urban areas/areas of
poor drainage (i.e. Houston Metro). With respect to timing, the
severe/rainfall threat has already begun. Storms on the whole
should become weaker late tonight with the severe/hydro threat
ending early Tuesday.

Rest of the forecast remains the same. An upper level low moving
through the Northern Plains should push a reinforcing cold front
through the area Wednesday morning. This will usher in cooler and
much more seasonable weather for Thanksgiving. Morning lows for the
holiday are forecasted to be in the 30s/upper 40s inland and 50s
near the coast. Daytime highs on Thanksgiving are anticipated to be
in the 60s/lower 70s. Conditions will also be dry too with no rain
expected. Heading into Friday, we`ll see onshore flow return and
temperatures/rain chances rise into the weekend. Hints of another
cold front remain on the horizon for Sunday into some time next week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region
tonight, The line is already impacting our northern and western
zones. A few storms may be strong to severe, producing strong
gusty winds. The line will gradually push southeastward, moving
offshore after midnight. Drier air will gradually filter into the
region in the storm`s wake. However, there is question as to how
much dry air will pool into the area overnight. If dry is limited,
then there could be widespread IFR with areas of LIFR late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. If there`s more dry air, then
conditions could skew MVFR or even VFR. We tried to split the
difference, showing falling vis/cigs behind the storms but not
quite pulling the trigger on IFR conditions just yet. That being
said, guidance has generally trended towards lower vis and cigs.
Therefore, do not be surprised if future updates feature sub-MVFR
conditions. For tomorrow, expect increasing northerly flow as a
reinforcing front moves in. No precip expected with the next
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Caution flags may be needed at times today through Tuesday as winds
strengthen with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along Gulf-
facing beaches. Showers and storms are expected today leading up to
a cold front, which should more off the coast by Tuesday morning.
Moderate to strong northerly winds develop Wednesday morning as a
reinforcing front moves through the area, likely necessitating Small
Craft Advisories through Thursday morning. These stronger offshore
winds may bring negative water levels at low tide in the upper
portion of Galveston bay. Onshore flow returns by Friday,
increasing into the weekend as the gradient tightens ahead of the
next weather system.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  76  50  63 /  80   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  65  80  55  68 /  80  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  79  61  70 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03