847
FXUS64 KHGX 122238
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Heat advisory continues through 6 PM. Peak heat indicies of 106-
   109F remain expected.

 - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend.

 - Hot temperatures continue through next week, with daily afternoon
   storms along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms remain expected this
afternoon, gradually tapering off this evening. Flow aloft is very
weak and these should not amount to much. The Heat Advisory remains
unchanged for today with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with
dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s which will yield heat indicies
around 106-109. Use caution if taking part in outdoor activities.
Moisture parameters slightly improve Sunday and despite the
continued lack of forcing with the benign upper pattern, afternoon
sea breeze initiated convection looks to be a bit more
widespread. Otherwise temperatures will be similar as today.
Although we remain just below Heat Advisory criteria at this time,
heat indicies will be widespread in the mid-triple digits, so
again use caution outdoors.

A broad closed upper level high pressure will develop over the
Tennessee Valley on Monday, curtailing any unsettled weather.
Typical afternoon sea breeze convection should persist, but remain
very isolated. An upper low approaching from the northeast will
gradually displace the ridge mid-to-late week, however it will not
be very strong and should not lead to any significant changes to the
hot and mostly dry pattern. Active weather may return next weekend
as Pacific moisture looks to track farther eastward, but it remains
too far out to determine specific details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Gusty winds will ease and become light this evening. Cloud decks
will lower to around 1500-2000ft overnight, and could briefly fill
in to produce MVFR CIGS early Sunday morning. Isolated patchy fog
will also be possible at fog prone locations like KCXO. CIGs/Fog
should clear around or by the late morning hours. Diurnally driven
showers/storms will be possible on Sunday, mainly over the coast
during the morning, then inland during the afternoon. Overall
chances for showers/storms look slightly better on Sunday compared
to Saturday. Any convection that does develop should tapper off
into Sunday evening, while winds becoming light once again.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Winds around 10-15 kts (peaking this evening and Sunday evenings)
will continue through the weekend with seas of 2-4 ft. Daily
thunderstorm chances will continue, with slightly higher chances
Sunday afternoon near the coast and lingering into the overnight
hours for the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  98  76  97 /  10   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  79  95  78  94 /   0  20   0  30
Galveston (GLS)  84  91  84  91 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-
     195>199-210>213-226-227-235-236.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...03
MARINE...AP