Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
912 FXUS64 KHGX 250448 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1048 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated coastal showers and thunderstorms will continue through the night, but the overall severe weather threat has ended for this event. - A stronger, reinforcing front pushes through Wednesday morning, bringing cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1012 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 After an active day across SE Texas, we are beginning to quiet down as the line of storms exits to our east. Some isolated showers inland and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast through midnight, but overall the severe/tornado threat is over. The rain today has led to moist grounds, which combined with light winds and clearing skies will lead to the potential of patchy, dense fog developing overnight tonight through early Tuesday morning. Cooler, drier conditions are expected on Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s north of I-10, and then the low to mid 80s southwards. A re-enforcing, dry cold front will pass through the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ushering in much cooler/drier conditions to the region. Low temperatures Tuesday night will ultimately be determined by the exact timing of the cold front, but its looking like most of the region will drop into at least the low to mid 50s - but it could be a few degrees cooler if the front is faster. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 60s for most of the region, and then overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 40s with portions of the Piney Woods dropping into the mid 30s. A slight warm-up is expected on Friday and into the weekend as onshore flow returns. After tonight`s lingering showers, the area will remain rain free through the rest of the work week. Rain chances return to the area this weekend with an approaching system approaching from the west. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region tonight, The line is already impacting our northern and western zones. A few storms may be strong to severe, producing strong gusty winds. The line will gradually push southeastward, moving offshore after midnight. Drier air will gradually filter into the region in the storm`s wake. However, there is question as to how much dry air will pool into the area overnight. If dry is limited, then there could be widespread IFR with areas of LIFR late tonight into early tomorrow morning. If there`s more dry air, then conditions could skew MVFR or even VFR. We tried to split the difference, showing falling vis/cigs behind the storms but not quite pulling the trigger on IFR conditions just yet. That being said, guidance has generally trended towards lower vis and cigs. Therefore, do not be surprised if future updates feature sub-MVFR conditions. For tomorrow, expect increasing northerly flow as a reinforcing front moves in. No precip expected with the next front. && .MARINE... Issued at 1012 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Moderate onshore flow has picked up tonight, up to around 20kt at times, ahead of an approaching cold front, so small craft should exercise caution through the night as this front moves through. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will also be possible tonight with the frontal passage. Once the activity ends tonight, our next chance of rain won`t be until the weekend. Light northerly winds are expected through the day on Tuesday, but a re-enforcing cold front will move through the coastal waters Tuesday night ushering in moderate to strong north to northeasterly winds Wednesday morning into Wednesday night. Winds will be around 20-25kt with seas increasing to 4-6ft (will occasionally higher waves). Conditions improve Thursday into Friday morning with light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly winds. Onshore flow begins by Friday afternoon with moderate to possible strong onshore winds Friday night into Saturday ahead of our next approaching disturbance. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 76 49 63 / 50 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 65 80 55 69 / 80 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 79 61 70 / 60 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Self MARINE...Fowler