692
FXUS64 KHGX 160601
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
101 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Overview, Discussion, Marine...

.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Seasonal temperatures expected throughout the forecast period.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
  for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Mostly tranquil conditions are expected during the overnight
hours, although some mid-level vort maxes lingering over
Southeast TX could trigger some isolated showers. The low
temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s for areas
north of I-10, the mid to upper 70s for areas near and south of
I-10, and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.

A bit of a stormy day is expected yet again on Monday as a mid-
level trough and additional vort maxes continue to move overhead.
We could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop near
sunrise, in particular over the Gulf waters and locations south of
I-10. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to increase and
expand further inland during the morning to early afternoon hours as
diurnal heating and instability increases. Some storms could be
strong at times and may lead to strong gusty winds, especially
with DCAPE possibly near 1000 J/kg. PWs over Southeast TX are
expected to range between 1.8 to 2.1 inches, thus, periods of
heavy rainfall can also be expected with some of these storms.
Small hail cannot be ruled out either. For those who dont get to
experience the storms, expect partly cloudy skies with southerly
winds at around 10 mph. The high temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the region, although
areas receiving more rain could see temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. Showers and storms dissipate during the evening to
early night hours as temperatures begin to cool and instability
decreases. Low rain chances expected Monday night along with low
temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

Although models show the eastern edge of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico expanding closer into Southeast TX during the week, several
upper level disturbances will be passing through the Southern
Plains and could continue to trigger isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. We will continue to see
seasonal temperatures throughout the week with high temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The low temperatures will be
slightly on the warmer side, generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms, with a few embedded strong
thunderstorms, is making its way through the region. It has
already passed through CLL and UTS, and is either passing through
currently or will shortly at CXO, IAH, HOU, and SGR. The line is
moving fairly quickly, and will likely be through LBX/GLS by 2z.
Wind gusts around 20-30kt will be possible with any of the
embedded stronger storms along with reduced visibility due to
rainfall. There will be a northwesterly windshift once the storms
move through, but within an hour or two will return to
southeasterly flow. This southeasterly flow will continue through
the remainder of the period.

A period of MVFR conditions with CIGs between 1500-2500ft will
likely develop overnight tonight and continue through Monday
morning thanks to wet grounds and light winds. These lower CIGs
will scatter out by 14-15z giving way to continued VFR conditions
through the remainder of the day. Daytime heating and high
moisture content in the air will result in additional pop-up
afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow. Can`t determine exactly where
these storms will pop-up, so have put in a PROB30 for most TAF
sites. Generally speaking, the storms will likely initialize
closer to the coast by the late morning/early afternoon and then
slowly move northwards through the early evening.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas mainly
between 2 and 4 feet are expected for the next several days.
Caution flags may be needed mid-week as the pressure gradient
tightens and winds strengthen to 15-20 knots. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Some
storms could lead to locally higher winds and seas. Also,
persistent onshore flow could lead to strong rip currents along
the Gulf facing coasts at times, in particular when winds are
above 15 knots.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  92  75  92 /  20  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  90  76  91 /  40  60  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  81  88 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

OVERVIEW...Cotto /24/
DISCUSSION....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto /24/