Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
851 FXUS64 KHGX 271801 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 101 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Rain chances decrease on Thursday, but rise again on Friday ahead of an approaching weak front. - This week backdoor front should push into SE Texas on Saturday, bringing greater rain chances and lower afternoon temperatures over the weekend. - Rain chances decrease again next week as drier air fills in behind the front. "How dry?" for Labor Day depends on the speed of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 A diffuse frontal boundary is currently situated over SE Texas this afternoon. Convection has been a tad greater than what high- resolution models were depicting, even with a 593-595 dam midlevel ridge centered over Texas. Still, the broader diurnal pattern seems to remain on track as storm coverage has shifted inland this afternoon. Expect this activity to gradually taper off this evening. The aforementioned diffuse boundary is still anticipated to lift north/northeast away from our area heading into Thursday. This leaves the mid/upper level ridge to dictate conditions over the region, resulting in a lull in rainfall. A few showers/storms could still develop, though activity will be more isolated in nature compared to today. Decreased cloud cover should improve afternoon heating, bringing highs up by around 1-3 degrees (give or take), though temperatures will still be in the mid/lower 90s inland and upper 80s/lower 90s along the coast. On Friday, a mid/upper level trough over Quebec will dig towards the northeast CONUS, sending another weak, backdoor cold front towards SE Texas. Pooling moisture and rising PWs will see rain chances trending upwards again as the boundary approaches. The timing for this front is still up in the air. At present the majority of LREF members suggest that the front will have moved through Huntsville by Saturday afternoon, then Houston by Sunday morning. There remains much spread between members with respect to timing, though as mentioned previously, the GEFS members still broadly lean slower with the timing of the front while ENS and GEPS favor a quicker passage for this frontal boundary. Regardless, passing shortwaves and weaker impulses in this moist environment should be favorable for producing more numerous showers/storms. WPC still has SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of Excessive rainfall on Friday and Saturday, now extending into Sunday. Rainfall totals still aren`t all that high, though stronger/slower moving storms in this environment could produce some locally higher amounts, which could result in ponding on roadways and minor street flooding, mainly in urban areas. The combination of cloud cover, rainfall and the weak cold front will also aid in cooling off SE Texas. Afternoon highs may drop into the 80s/lower 90s (currently slated for Sunday/Monday, though again this is subject to the timing of the front). The frontal boundary should continue south on Monday, with rain chances decreasing as it pushes deeper into the Gulf waters while drier air fills in behind it. Though again, there are still timing discrepancies. If the EURO solutions play out, then we may see drier conditions with at or slightly below normal high temperatures by Monday, leading to fairly pleasant weather for Labor day. If not, then we may see warmer, humid conditions with scattered showers/storms. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Scattered shra/tstms situated in the vicinity of most SE Tx terminals early this morning. Suspect we`ll see this wane as we head into the the mid-late morning hours, followed by some potential redevelopment along the seabreeze later in the day and with additional daytime heating. Outside of any stronger cells, VFR conditions will be the rule. Light NE winds early this morning should veer to the SE as the day progresses. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Onshore winds of 5-15 knots and seas 1-3 feet can be expected over the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily, increasing Friday into the weekend as weak backdoor frontal boundary approaches the area, reaching the coast late Saturday/early Sunday. Winds will vary depending on the timing/speed of the front, but should shift northeasterly by around Sunday. Locally higher winds and seas are expected near any thunderstorms that develop. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 40 Houston (IAH) 77 93 78 95 / 10 30 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 83 91 / 30 40 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...47 MARINE...03