280
FXUS64 KHGX 150530
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New OVERVIEW, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
  will be possible today. Very well saturated grounds and today`s
  locally heavy rainfall may lead to minor or flash flooding.

- Continued daily chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms
  will prevail through this week.

Fowler

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The general pattern through at least midweek will be eastern Texas
sandwiched between an upper-level ridge centered over the Desert
Southwest and another ridge over SE CONUS resulting in troughing
in between. This will result a continued pattern of unsettled
weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (fueled by
high PWATs near 1.6-2"). Today will likely have the greatest
coverage of showers and thunderstorms (through at least midweek)
as an outflow boundary originating from a cluster of thunderstorms
that is expected to develop to the north later this morning
sweeps through our region. Likely start to see some isolated
showers and storms develop during the late morning/early afternoon
along the coast, then see the increase in coverage across most of
the area during the afternoon/evening as that boundary swings
through. Locally heavy rainfall is possible again today with
isolated stronger storms producing 1-2"+ of rain, and WPC
maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across the entire area.
3-hr FFG is generally around 2-4" across the area, but decreases
significantly in portions of Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda,
Brazoria, and Galveston counties to 0.2-2". So, any additional
heavy rainfall in these areas will likely lead to at least minor
flooding, and we will need to monitor closely for flash flooding.

With the continued weakness/troughing aloft and high PWATs, daily
showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the remainder of
the week. The upper-level pattern begins to change by Thursday as
an upper-level low swings through the Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Guidances in uncertain how far south this upper-level low digs,
but it could lead to increased thunderstorm coverage in our area
Thursday into Friday. The upper-level ridge of high pressure that
has been set up to our west all week is expected to slide into the
Southern Plains/Midwest by the end of the week. This will likely
help reduce the chances of showers and storms, but high PWATs and
daytime heating may still "win out" resulting in isolated
activity.

High temperatures through this entire week will likely be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s, though afternoon thunderstorm activity may
result in locally lower temperatures for where ever they pop-up.
Afternoon max heat indices will likely hover near 100 degrees
through this week as well. Overnight lows will be in the mid to
upper 70s inland, and then low 80s along the coast.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions mostly expected through at least late evening
followed by a mix of MVFR stratus (mainly north of the metro area)
later tonight. Will probably see some iso/sct activity begin
developing south of I-10 and offshore between 12-15z, followed by
an expansion/smattering of shra/tsra further inland in the 16-19z
timeframe. One thing we`ll have to keep an eye on is the remnants
or outflow from tonight`s storms in OK and north Tx that may sink
into our region during the day Sunday and provide a focusing
mechanism and convergent zone for additional afternoon activity.
Some of the storms today were on the heavy/strong side, and would
anticipate that possibility again Sunday. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light to occasional moderate onshore flow will persist through
this week with speeds generally around 10-15kt and occasional
gusts to 20kt. Seas will continue to be around 2-4ft. There will
be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms that may result in
locally higher winds and seas. Chances will be highest during the
morning and early afternoon hours, then the activity is expected
to move inland through the rest of the day.

The persistent onshore flow may result in an increased risk of
strong rip currents by midweek.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  75  90  75 /  60  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  90  75  90  77 /  50  20  50   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  80  88  81 /  40  20  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

OVERVIEW...Fowler
DISCUSSION....Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler