Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
636 FXUS64 KHGX 160352 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1052 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure will strengthen through the weekend, reducing chances of rain to near zero well into next week. - Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s) will persist through most of the rest of the month across Southeast Texas. The potential for Heat Advisory issuance remains elevated as a result. - Without adequate precautions outdoors, cumulative impacts of heat and heat stress will remain a significant risk factor to health (especially for heat-sensitive populations). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 We`ve reached the halfway point of our climatologically hottest month of the year, so I`ll give y`all one guess on what the forecast is expected to be. DING DING DING we have a winner! Your prize is a rain-free Sunday! A 598 dam mid-level high will slide directly overhead overnight and prevail through the middle of next week. This increased subsidence means rain chances are slim to none for most of the forecast period. Something that I do want to note though is a pocket of very dry air will slide in overnight into Sunday morning. How dry are we talking? Whelp...PW values are anticipated to bottom out in the 0.9-1.2" range tonight through Sunday night. For perspective, the 10th percentile this time of the year is 1.29". You might be wondering why in the world does this matter? Well other than the implications for rain chances being non-existent...drier air is more efficient at cooling. It is still August, so don`t get too excited but low temperatures over the next couple nights will be a few degrees cooler as a result. Hey, it`s something! Dew point depressions will still be low though, especially for areas north of I-10 so there is decent potential for patchy fog early Sunday morning. Outside of the areas where patchy fog and/or low cloud ceilings develop, skies will be mostly clear. My fellow space nerds will appreciate this news because the International Space Station will fly directly over Space City early Sunday morning at 5:39 AM CDT. It will appear from the southwestern horizon with a maximum altitude of 80 degrees (nearly directly overhead for perfect viewing conditions). It will disappear on the northeastern horizon after 4 minutes and 39 seconds. So, if you`re up early you can see the ISS crew flyby at 17,500 mph...that`s out of this world! With the mid-level high remaining overhead through at least midweek, expect temperatures to gradually climb. High temperatures will at least flirt with the triple digits for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods next week. Dew points are still expected to mix out into the upper 60s/low 70s during the afternoons which may keep heat indices just below the heat advisory threshold for at least the early part of the work week. Whether or not a heat advisory is in effect, it will still be dangerously hot especially for those outdoors for extended periods of time. Low temperatures for the work week will be mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s, so there won`t be much relief from the heat. Is there any hope in sight for some relief from the heat? Yup! After midweek, the mid-level high slides westward towards the Four Corners region which places us in northwest flow aloft. An upper level trough is expected to slide through the Mississippi River Valley going into the weekend with an associated frontal boundary. Now the front is not going to make it here, but it likely will serve as an initiation point for convection to develop and push southward. As a result, chances for showers/storms return to the forecast late in the work week and going into next weekend. With hot conditions persisting over the next several days, please continue to keep heat safety at the top of your minds for any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat- related illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all sites to start the 00Z TAF package. SSE winds of 10-12KTS with gusts up to 20KTS persist along and north of I-10. Winds are expected to gradually decrease this evening, and become light and variable overnight. Tomorrow morning, winds pickup out of the WSW before turning to the SSE once again tomorrow afternoon. Early tomorrow morning, an MVFR deck settles into the northwest portion of the CWA, resulting in increased chances for MVFR CIG/VIS for a few hours (around 11Z-13Z). Past this, VFR conditions return and are expected to remain for the rest of the day tomorrow. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 A period of benign marine conditions continues with light to occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-3 ft seas prevailing over the next several days. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...MLG MARINE...Batiste