Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
965 FXUS64 KHGX 111758 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1258 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Risk of fires continues this weekend with low daytime humidities in place. - High temperatures will remain generally 5-10 degrees above normal through at least mid week. - No rain in the forecast through the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 No significant changes to this forecast package from the previous one as the mid-upper level high pressure remains anchored over Mexico and Texas through at least mid-week. This feature will dominate the local weather pattern across Southeast TX, limiting rain chances over the next several days. The high temperatures this weekend will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coasts, while the lows tonight and Sunday night remain in the 60s inland and the lower to mid 70s along the immediate coasts. Sadly, these temperatures are still around 4-9 degrees above normal for this weekend. GOES Total Precipitable Water imagery measured values between 0.8-1.0 inches around noon today, and while this airmass will give us some comfort from the heat during the evenings and early mornings, it will also lead to an elevated fire risk. Mid level heights will rise to 590-593 dams during the first half of the week as the high pressure moves over Central TX. Sunny skies, southeast flow, and an increase in low level moisture could lead to warmer temperatures, with more inland areas seeing highs in the lower 90s - roughly between 6-10 degrees above normal. Global models still hint at the closed upper level low moving in from the Gulf, but now has it moving into the eastern coasts of Mexico sometime late Wednesday, moving northward into Southern TX on Thursday morning, and then over Southeastern TX as a trough later on Thursday into early Friday morning. We might also have a backdoor front stall to our east or northeast on Friday. It is still too early to know how much rain we may get from these features, but NBM is starting to bring in some slight rain chances starting over the Gulf waters late Thursday and then expanding inland on Friday. Given that it is near the end of the forecast period, expect some minor adjustments to this forecast as we near the end of the week. Stay tuned! :) Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds light and variable inland. For terminals closer to the coast winds may approach 10 knots out of the E to SE this afternoon. Adams && .MARINE... Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Light easterly winds through early today, becoming onshore tonight and continuing through Monday. East northeast winds return Tuesday into Wednesday and then back to onshore Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Water levels will be running above normal due in part to the moon phase and existing easterly fetch, and may rise to around 3.5 above MLLW during high tide. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Considering we had some wildfire starts on Friday, and continued dry fuels and low RH`s for the remainder of the weekend...we will maintain the enhanced fire wx messaging. Wind speeds will thankfully remain below Red Flag Warning criteria, but if initiated, fires shouldn`t have much of a problem starting esp in the daytime hours. The Texas A&M Forest Service is forecasting moderate to high fire danger for a good part of Southeast Texas this weekend. Use caution with any outdoor burning and obey burn bans currently in effect. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 89 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 85 75 86 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Cotto