Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
373 FXUS64 KHGX 021734 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Drier air filtering in leads to a period of benign weather through the end of the work week. - Temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s towards the end of the work week...but it`s a dry heat! - Rain chances return over the weekend and into early next week as moisture increases ahead of a frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Wake me up when September ends...or whenever we get our first TRUE cold front...whichever comes first. While we didn`t quite have a true FROPA, we`ll still have some drier air filtering in throughout the day as a lingering frontal boundary sits off of the coast. This will lead to a period of rather pleasant conditions through the end of the work week, especially in the morning and evening hours. That doesn`t mean that the rain chances are gone as some along the coast are currently dealing with isolated showers. Isolated showers and storms will be possible throughout the afternoon as PW values continue to linger around 1.6-2.0" especially south of I-10. If you take a gander at water vapor satellite imagery, you`ll see that the drier air is gradually working its way in. Wednesday and Thursday will be the most pleasant days with dew points managing to mix out into the 60s areawide. Those lower dew points do translate to lower overnight temperatures mainly on Wednesday night as we drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s...tonight we`ll still be in the low to mid 70s. There is a caveat though...drier air does cool down more efficiently, but it also heats up more efficiently as well! This is especially the case if warm air advection aloft leads to 850mb temperatures approaching the 90th percentile towards the end of the work week. As a result, high temperatures on Thursday and Friday will mainly be in the mid to upper 90s. It`ll be a dry heat though as dew points will still manage to mix out into the upper 60s/low 70s in the daytime...so there are no heat advisory concerns. Over the weekend, things get a bit messy. I know that`s not what anyone wants to hear after this past weekend, but rain chances will be on the rise. Deeper tropical moisture looks to move in just as a frontal boundary approaches over the weekend. The front itself looks like it will stay just to our northeast, but it`s way too early to lock anything in at this point...and either way it`s expected to linger. The placement of this front along with where the bulk of the moisture goes will play a key role in what happens late in the weekend into early next week. If the bulk of that moisture manages to find its way inland along the Gulf Coast, then we could have the potential for rounds of heavy rainfall. We`ll continue to monitor the trends and provide updates as things become a bit more clear. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Quieter conditions expected for today. VFR prevailing through the period. Winds will be light out of the NNE to E, becoming light and variable overnight. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible for coastal locations; however, probabilities are on the lower end and did not warrant a mention in TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Outside of any scattered showers and storms in the Gulf waters throughout the afternoon hours, winds and seas will be on the low side through the end of the work week. Drier air moves in later today leading to a period of benign marine conditions, but expect chances for showers and storms to return over the weekend and extending into early next week as moisture increases ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 93 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 93 73 95 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 91 80 91 / 10 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Batiste