621
FXUS64 KHGX 132330
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Showers and thunderstorms that are currently affecting portions of
Southeast TX will be dissipating during the evening to early night
hours. Mostly tranquil conditions are expected for the rest of
tonight into early Saturday morning with light winds and low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s for areas north of I-10, the
mid to upper 70s for areas near and south of I-10, and the upper
70s to lower 80s along the coasts.

The weather pattern on Saturday will remain fairly active,
similar to that of our summer pattern. We can expect isolated
showers developing during the mid to late morning hours, mainly
over areas near and south of I-10. By the late morning to mid
afternoon hours, we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
over these areas and a little further inland as low level
moisture and instability increases. Some storms may be accompanied
by strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Periods of heavy
rainfall are also possible and may lead to ponding of water along
roadways and areas of poor drainage. The high temperatures on
Saturday will be mostly in the lower 90s inland and in the upper
80s to lower 90s over areas near and along the coasts. Showers and
storms will dissipate Saturday evening as we loose diurnal
heating and instability. Partly cloudy skies expected Saturday
night with low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s inland
and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.

Cotto

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The Sunday-Wednesday pattern appears the same in the global
deterministic / ensemble guidance as it did yesterday. Mid/upper
ridging over SW and SE CONUS, with weak troughing extending from
the Ohio River Valley to southern coastal Texas. Coupled with a
moisture rich environment, this signal continues to suggest a
daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Couldn`t rule out a few
heavier thunderstorms here and there. The best chance of showers
and storms will be across the southern half of the CWA. But pretty
much the whole region has at least a slight chance of rainfall
each day. The air will continue to feel like SE Texas early
summer, with high humidity and highs generally in the upper 80s to
low 90s.

Yesterday, it appeared that ridging would build towards the end of
the week. The guidance still shows that scenario. But it builds
the ridge more to our north. In other words, we may keep the daily
risk of showers and storms through the end of next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Several outflow induced storms situated betweein IAH & CLL should
weaken/dissipate in the next few hours with the loss of heating.
Outside of early eveing convection, expect maily VFR conditions
into the overnight followed by a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs in the 9-15z
timeframe. With daytime heating and remnant boundaries situated in
the area, anticipate that we`ll see some scattered storm
development again Saturday...first around the coast/Galveston Bay
area around sunrise...then further inland toward mid-late morning
into the afternoon. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Generally light to moderate onshore flow should prevail through
Tuesday along with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms.
Enhanced swell today is resulting in near Small Craft conditions
offshore while also increasing the rip current risk. Swell should
decrease over the weekend. Onshore flow may increase by the middle
to latter part of next week, resulting in a corresponding increase
in the swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  91  75  91 /  40  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  82  89 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-237-238-300-
     313-337-338-437>439.

     High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self