905
FXUS64 KHGX 162326
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
  portions of the area. Locally heavy rain could potentially lead
  to minor flooding or flash flooding.


- A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
  are expected each day throughout the work-week; though with less
  coverage than previous days.

JM

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Latest visible satellite and radar show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast and Gulf waters
early this afternoon. These showers are developing roughly in a zone
with strong moisture convergence at the surface and divergence at
300mb thanks to a weak upper jet. As we head into the afternoon and
early evening hours, peak of diurnal heating will take place along
with increasing low to mid-level instability under a zone of
precipitable water around 2.0 - 2.2 inch. This will support
scattered convection within the next few hours further inland. As of
now , the best focus for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-10
corridor and areas east of I-45. Locally heavy rain will be the
primary risk, resulting in isolated flooding. This risk is depicted
well in the WPC`s day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. The severe
weather risk is low; however, some strong storms will be capable of
producing strong winds, frequent lightning and small hail. Most of
this activity are diurnally-driven; therefore, showers/storms are
progged to end early this evening.

The eastern edge of the mid to upper level ridge centered across the
southwestern CONUS will slightly expand into our region after
Tuesday. Further to the east, there will be another weak ridge
centered across the eastern Atlantic/eastern Gulf. This pattern will
somehow increase subsidence (drier/sinking air) across the region
throughout the week. However, a trough axis will lingers across the
region; resulting in passing weak impulses of energy/shortwaves over
the area. In other words, a less active pattern will prevail over
the next several days, but there will be a daily risk of hit-or-miss
showers and thunderstorms. Global models and some ensemble means
show no consistency with the weather pattern beyond Thursday. Most
solutions suggest the best rain/storm coverage Thursday, persisting
into the weekend, particularly south of I-10. Forecast confidence
remains low to moderate during this time-frame given high
uncertainty. Therefore, will continue PoPs as NBM guidance suggests
with around 20 to 40 percent each day.

Warm and humid days continue with high temperatures generally in the
low 90s. Overnight lows mainly in the 70s inland, around 80 along
the coast.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Some lingering isolated thunderstorms remain over parts of SE
Texas this evening, mainly near SGR. However, numerous outflow
boundaries from storms earlier today continue to propagate across
the area could result in variable wind shifts. These wind shifts
will not last long, about 30 minutes or so, before southerly winds
redevelop and persist through the rest of the period. The storms
that still remain currently are expected to weaken and dissipate
by sunset. Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, but a period of MVFR conditions are possible at CLL, UTS,
and CXO late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Scattered low
cloud (around 2000ft) will reach all the way to the coast, and
there could be brief periods of these clouds becoming more BKN,
but generally VFR conditions will prevail for terminals along and
south of I-10.

Warm and humid conditions are expected again on Tuesday, so pop-up
afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible. Coverage should be
less than today, but cannot out rule an isolated storm impacting a
terminal at some point in the afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through
the day, before gradually diminish by late this afternoon. Rain and
storm chances are expected each day, with the greatest next chance
this Thursday. Elevated winds and seas, along with a slight chance
of waterspouts are possible with any strong thunderstorms. Overall,
light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft are
expected throughout the week. Seas may build a bit offshore (around 5
to 6 ft) Wednesday night into Thursday in response to an approaching
coastal trough over the southwestern Gulf. Given persistent onshore
flow along all Gulf-facing coast, a moderate to high risk of rip
currents will persist through most of the week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  91  76  91 /  20   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  75  91  78  90 /  40  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  88  82  88 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

OVERVIEW...JM
Discussion...JM
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...JM