952
FXUS64 KHGX 171106
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of showers
  and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with locally
  heavy rainfall possible.

- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance moving through the
  northern Gulf, giving it a 30% chance of development into a
  tropical system within the next 2 days. Regardless of
  development, increased rain chances are likely late Thursday
  through Friday with some lingering activity into early Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather is expected Sunday through at least mid-week
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Our brief period of drier conditions will persist through at least
the first half of Thursday, but moisture associated with a
disturbance currently moving through the northern Gulf will bring
rain chances back to the region starting Thursday night. To learn
more about the potential tropical aspect of the aforementioned
system, check out the tropical section below. Regardless of
development, we can expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity. There is a chance for some isolated showers or storms as
early as Thursday afternoon thanks to daytime heating and the
gradual increase in PWATs, but coverage will not really begin in
earnest until late Thursday night into Friday as that system moves
further west. Friday will have the greatest chance of showers and
thunderstorms, potentially bringing locally heavy rainfall.
Lingering activity will be possible through early Saturday
afternoon as the disturbance turns to the north. WPC has placed
the Galveston Bay region up through eastern Polk County in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to
flooding on Friday, with areas generally along and of the Brazos
River in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). Due to the lingering
activity on Saturday, WPC continues a Marginal Risk for areas
generally east of I-45.

There will likely be a sharp cutoff of rainfall totals where areas
west of the Brazos River may see zero to little rainfall, while
areas to the east of I-45 may end getting up to 1-2" with locally
higher amounts. However, this cutoff may end up happening further
east if the disturbance turns northwards earlier, or further west
if the disturbance can push a little closer to SE Texas before
turning northwards (and thus increasing rainfall totals overall).
And unfortunately there is still uncertainty on the track of this
system, but hoping there is more clarity in the forecast on
Thursday. Another thing to note that may end up limiting rainfall
potential is that we will be on the drier side of this
disturbance, experiencing mostly a north or northeasterly fetch
through the event. Continue to monitor forecast for any changes,
but at this point it looks like our main impact will be the
possibility of some locally heavy rainfall on Friday.

Looking beyond this disturbance, high pressure looks to build in
across the Southern Plains into the Midwest Sunday through at
least midweek next week bringing us hot, humid, but mostly rain-
free conditions (can`t out rule some afternoon thunderstorms).

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Patchy fog has made an appearance once again with decreased
visibilities currently ongoing at CXO and SGR. There is potential
for a brief period of decreased visibilities at additional
terminals as well through 14Z before conditions return back to VFR
areawide. Winds will start out light and southwesterly this
morning then becoming southeasterly this afternoon behind the
sea breeze. Going into the evening hours, winds trend back towards
light and variable with another round of patchy fog into Friday
morning. Scattered showers will begin move in from the east on
Friday morning due to increasing tropical moisture.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas will
persist through early Thursday. There is a disorganized disturbance
currently located in the northern Gulf near the Florida Panhandle
that the NHC is monitoring for developing into a tropical depression
(40% chance). Regardless of development, we can expect the increased
rain chances late Thursday through Friday or early Saturday with
locally heavy rainfall possible - though Lousiana and the coastal
waters off east of High Island will have a greater chance of locally
heavy rainfall. There will also likely be a slight increase in wave
heights Friday into Saturday, to around 2-4ft, but could become
higher if that disturbance does indeed strengthen.

Low seas and light onshore winds return Sunday and persist through
at least midweek next week.

Fowler

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE: NHC has lowered the chances of
development to 30% due to the disturbance remaining disorganized
and limited time before it moves inland later today. -Batiste

Not much change in the tropical outlook for Invest 93L in the
northern Gulf with NHC maintaining a 40% chance of development
over the next 2 days. Conditions are favorable for development,
but that is only if the low-level center (LLC) of the disturbance
can make it over the waters. So far, the LLC (which has been hard
to find on Satellite) has remained either over land or just
offshore. If this system cannot either get over more open ocean,
or redevelop its LLC further offshore then the likelihood it
becomes a tropical system is low. 93L will continue on its western
trek through the next few days, reaching southern Louisiana by
late Thursday, before turning north on Friday. And if it does
develop into a tropical system, its limited time over the Gulf
will likely limit strengthening.

Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an
increase of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through early
Saturday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  74  90  76 /   0   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  95  78  88  77 /  10  20  60  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  80  88  82 /  10  50  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler