Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
386 FXUS64 KHGX 122351 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 651 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower/thunderstorm or two remains a small possibility into Thursday, but the vast majority of the area will remain dry. - Slightly higher chances of rain on Friday as a brief surge of deeper Gulf moisture moves into the area. - August heat will continue. Heat index values may flirt around Heat Advisory criteria at times for some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 A few isolated coastal showers are trying to pop up on the radar early this afternoon. We`ll probably see a cell or two try to get going further inland later today, but overall coverage will be low and they`ll quickly dissipate early in the evening with the loss of heating. Somewhat similar scenario on Thursday too, but with even less moisture to work with, POPs aren`t really worth mentioning for most areas. Heading into Friday, the northern periphery of some deeper Gulf moisture seen on sat pix near the Yucatan (associated with a mid level inverted trof) should briefly track into the region and slightly enhance rain chances (20-35%). As this trof makes it further wwd into Mexico, we`ll see strengthening ridging building in from the east over the weekend into early next week. With building heights, subsidence, and lower PW`s...rain chances will be at a minimum or nil. In terms of temperatures, we`re looking for highs in the 96-100F range inland and low 90s at the beaches. Heat index readings will peak between 105-110 most days (flirting with the 108F advisory criteria for some locations at times). Currently, I`m not planning to issue one for Thursday considering gusty southerly winds should provide somewhat of a "relief"...but future shifts will continue to re-evaluate things. Regardless of an advsy or not, the usual heat precautions/messaging remains the same. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 A fairly similar forecast is expected through Thursday with breezy southerly winds through around sunset with gusts to around 20kt and then diminishing to around 5-8kt overnight. The wind gusts of 18-23kt will return by the late morning to early afternoon with sustained southerly winds around 12-15kt that persist through sunset Thursday. Most of the region should remain VFR through the entire period, but lingering low-level moisture may result in the return of MVFR conditions for CLL, UTS, and CXO late tonight into early Thursday morning (10-14z timeframe) with CIGs around 2000ft. Patchy fog will also be possible, mainly at CXO, that could result in occasional IFR conditions. Slightly higher winds tonight compared to last night should limit the longevity of fog or CIGs compared to last night. Any low CIGs or fog that develops should scatter out shortly after sunrise giving way to VFR conditions area-wide. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible tomorrow morning along the coast, but coverage will be too low to include in any TAF. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 A prevailing south to southeast flow will continue for the next several days. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20kt tonight and remain somewhat elevated into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens. This will allow seas to build into the 3 to 5 foot range. Caution flags will probably need to be hoisted in the evening forecast update. As higher pressure builds into the region from the east this weekend, winds and seas should gradually diminish. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 80 97 79 96 / 0 20 0 30 Galveston (GLS) 84 91 84 91 / 0 0 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...47