Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
734 FXUS64 KHGX 170628 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1228 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm weather will persist through midweek. - Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily basis. - Rain chances remain minimal through Tuesday, then increase Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching disturbance. A cold front is expected to reach the area late in the work week, bringing a stronger round of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Ridging aloft will continue to bring warm and mostly benign conditions throughout much of the work week. Temperatures remain around 10-20 degrees above normal, exceptionally warm for mid- November. A few disturbances passing to the north will weaken the ridge slightly today, resulting in a slight dip in daytime temperatures. Still, this won`t really move the needle all that much as highs are still expected in the upper 70s/80s with lows generally in the 60s/lower 70s. Ample moisture, light winds & most clear skies keeps fog on the tap for each day during the nighttime/early morning hours. It`ll be mostly patchy as we`ve seen the last several days, with some dense pockets, mainly at fog-prone locations like KCXO and KLBX. If you`ve run into some pockets of fog on your morning commutes these last few days, chances are you`ll see the same thing again, so plan accordingly. Rain is still slated to return around mid week as an upper level low swings across the Desert southwest. Several weaker shortwaves & PVA impulses out ahead of this trough will supply lift necessary for a scattered showers and storms on Wednesday, rising further into Thursday as a cold front approaches SE Texas. Models have shifted the FROPA timing later (almost a whole day in some cases), now showing it move through some time late Thursday/early Saturday. We`ll still likely see a line of showers/thunderstorms along the front, then followed by cooler weather in it`s wake. Models still indicate that the trough associated with this cold front will take on a negative tilt prior to it`s arrival. NBM Mean SFC CAPE has trended lower, falling to around/under 1200 J/KG ahead of the front, though LREF bulk shear remains at 35-50 knots over the region. These shear values remain greatest in the Piney Woods Area, where upper level forcing is still anticipated to be strongest. This high shear/low instability environment has the potential to produce a few stronger storms with this upcoming cold front. Even with the downward trend in instability, it`ll still be worth monitoring over the next few days. Long range models are out of phase by the weekend. NBM leans wetter with a less progressive scenario, where the front slows/stalls. Though, there are a few models/ensemble members showing faster & drier scenarios too. In either case, temperatures are still anticipated to decrease, though on the whole still a tad above normal for the weekend. Long range ensembles keep this above normal trend through around Thanksgiving. Afterwards, ensembles show more seasonable temperatures. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected over SE TX through early tonight, then we are expected a mix of IFR to VFR conditions in response to the development of patchy to dense fog during the overnight to early morning hours. Visibilities will increase as fog dissipates between 13-15Z, however, ceilings may take a little longer to lift. S-SE winds will be at 5 KTS or less tonight, then increase to 06-12 KTS from late Mon morning to Mon evening. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow can be expected through Tuesday. Patchy fog inland may spill into portions of the northern bays & upper ship channel during the late night and early morning hours each day. Winds, seas and rain chances increase on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Caution flags and potentially Small Craft Advisories may be needed early Thursday into Friday. These higher winds and seas may also bring a high risk of rip currents along Gulf- Facing beaches. The cold front should move off the coast late Friday/early Saturday, bringing a line of showers/thunderstorms with it. Northerly winds settle in behind the front. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 40 Houston (IAH) 67 86 69 85 / 0 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 71 81 71 81 / 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...03