Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
416 FXUS64 KHGX 310502 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1202 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry today. - A cold front will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening through very early Sunday. - Next week`s outlook features seasonably hot and humid conditions with isolated afternoon showers and storms possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Texas remains in the grip of a strong mid/upper ridge centered over New Mexico. However, one can see signs of flux in the pattern by taking a gander at the water vapor imagery. Over the northern plains, there is a robust mid/upper disturbances that is trending from a strong shortwave trough to a more longer wave system. As ridging retrogrades into W CONUS this weekend, the aforementioned trough should help shift lower mid/upper heights westward in the central CONUS, eroding the ridge over Texas. The mid/upper system will also foment LL cyclogenesis, resulting in a sfc low that tracks across the Midwest this weekend. The low will have a trailing cold front that pushes into southeast Texas by Saturday afternoon or night. What do all these factors entail for our weather here in SE TX? The dry and hot regime will continue today. Inland afternoon highs in the upper 90s will be common once again, with a few areas reaching 100 degrees. Sufficient mixing should keep peak heating dew points low enough to prevent widespread heat indices reaching or exceeding 108F (Heat Advisory criteria). That being said, various locations did briefly reaching 108-109F on Thursday, so I suspect that will happen again today. Remember that normal Texas heat is dangerous. Today`s temperatures should be a tad hotter than normal. The trailing cold front approaches the region on Saturday. The exact timing of the front will be crucial regarding convection and temperatures. LL frontal convergence may already be sufficient to initiate at least shallow convection along and ahead of the front. But moisture / thermodynamic profiles could allow for deep convection, especially if these forcings are able to interact with peak daytime heating. A front that waits until Saturday evening / night will have less day time heating to play with, while a Saturday afternoon FROPA will obviously have more. Couldn`t rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm if the timing works out. Saturday`s temperatures are expected to be in the mid/upper 90s. But with a veering LL wind profile and enough sunshine ahead of the front, I couldn`t rule out temperatures trying to spike up to around 100 degrees in our central and southern counties ahead of the front. Interestingly, guidance has trended towards a somewhat stronger front, featuring much lower dew points in its wake. How far south this dry air extends is uncertain. But it appears dew points as low as the 50s could make it into our northern zones, while dew points well down into the 60s could push all the way to I-10. If the front`s associated showers/storms/clouds are able to clear, yielding a bright, sunny Sunday with low dew points and light northerly flow, then it`s possible my mid/upper 90s temps on Sunday are a little low. But I`ll stick with mid/upper 90s for now. The outlook for next week continues to look seasonably miserable, with highs in the mid/upper 90s, isolated diurnal showers/storms, and heat indices well over 100 degrees. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 High pressure continues to bring VFR conditions with S-SW wind throughout the period. Winds become light and variable overnight but strengthen throughout the day on Friday with potential for 15-20kt gusts in the afternoon. MVFR CIGs are possible in the early morning as we saw today at our northern terminals but would burn off by late morning. An isolated SHRA with the afternoon sea breeze could occur but confidence is too low to include it in the current TAFs. BSM && .MARINE... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Light to moderate SW winds should continue through Friday and into Saturday. By Saturday afternoon and evening, SW winds are expected to increase somewhat, possibly reaching up to 20 knots sustained at times. This may result in a modest increase in seas. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases late Saturday afternoon and evening as well. By Sunday into Monday, winds may become westerly. Light to moderate S to SW winds return for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 99 78 98 79 / 20 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...BSM MARINE...Self