Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
104 FXUS64 KHGX 141112 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 612 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again today, though probably not as widespread as what we saw on Sunday. - Rain chances further diminish into the midweek time period and high temperatures will be a touch higher. - Moisture availability gradually increases again late in the week and early in the weekend and rain chances trend back upward...moreso east of Interstate 45. - Will be keeping an eye on the northeast and north central Gulf this week where an area of disturbed weather will emerge. NHC is currently assigning a 30% probability of some tropical development as of the time of this writing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The parent mid-upper trof that have been responsible for for shra/tstms to our west and north, and over parts of our region, will begin lifting to the northeast, but we`ll still be situated somewhat near a lingering weakness/shear axis between ridging both to our west & east. Another day of PW`s around 2" is anticipated and once we get temps warming into the upper 80s-low 90s and the seabreeze moving inland, we`ll see some scattered precip development across the area today. Overall coverage should be lower than what we saw yesterday and follow a typical summertime pattern. Heading into Tue-Thur time period, some llvl ridging currently in the eastern Gulf will track westward and we should see some drier air filter into the region. Though POPs won`t exactly be zero, corresponding rain chances will considerably diminish. Would anticipate a slight rise in daytime high temperatures with less cloud cover as well. An inverted mid-upper level trof situated off the SE U.S. coastline is fcst to move across FL and into the northeast Gulf toward midweek. Whether or not a closed low level circulation is able to emerge in the area of disturbed wx during the second part of the work week (and if so, where) remains to be seen. Model ensembles are a mixed bag in these regards, but we`ll be keeping an eye on things as the trof makes its way westward across the northern Gulf coast. Guidance is in fair agreement we`ll see a gradual increase on moisture Friday into Saturday, esp east of I-45, so one would expect a gradual increase in POPs. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 This morning, widely scattered shra is occuring near the coast while localized MVFR/IFR conditions are reported inland. Any MVFR/IFR should improve to VFR by mid-morning. Scattered shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Locally heavy tsra with gusty winds possible. Any tsra should diminish this evening as we lose day time heating. Winds today should be 5-10 kts from the south. Later in the afternoon, winds may shift SE and increase somewhat, before decreasing in the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025Typical summer pattern is anticipated with onshore flow in the 8-15kt range and 2-4 foot seas. Isolated, mainly overnight and morning showers or thunderstorms are possible in the Gulf and near the coast in the overnight and morning periods today, with slightly better chances of storms in the north parts of the bays in the early-mid afternoon hours. Chances decline Tue-Thurs as some drier air moves into the area. NHC will be monitoring the northeast and north central Gulf for any tropical development later this week. Chances are currently around 30%, but it is a good reminder for mariners to keep up with the latest forecasts. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 75 93 74 / 30 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 94 77 95 77 / 50 20 30 30 Galveston (GLS) 91 82 92 82 / 20 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Self MARINE...47