886
FXUS64 KHGX 241736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Ridging over the Desert Southwest/Texas should continue to
dominate the weather pattern early this week. Abundant moisture
and weak capping may allow for isolated showers/storms to develop
with afternoon heating, though again coverage will be limited,
such that most of the area should remain dry and rain-free. Areas
south of I- 10 will have the greatest chances of receiving
rainfall during this period. Minor coastal flooding continues to
impact areas across the Bolivar Peninsula, therefore a Coastal
Flood Advisory remain in effect until 7 PM Tonight. Continue to
exercise caution while traversing these areas to allow waters to
recede from any impacted roadways.

Highs will still reach the 80s to upper 90s Today and Tuesday with
lows in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast. NAEFS/GEFS 500mb
heights still remain above the 90th Climatological percentile during
this period. Similar persistence can be seen in the ensemble 850mb
temperatures, suggesting that heat impacts will be relatively
similar as well. Heat indices are expected to reach 101-107 during
the afternoon hours, similar to that of yesterday. While a few
isolated spots could reach 108 or more, it won`t be widespread
enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Today. Tuesday also appears to
be borderline as well, though slightly warmer. The heat risk through
Tuesday will be moderate (3/5) for most people participating in low-
impact, leisurely outdoor activities. However, those participating
in strenuous outdoor activities may feel major (4/5) heat stress. If
you plain to spent time outdoors, remember to drink plenty of
fluids, wear lightweight clothing and avoid strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest part of the day.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Summer will persist through the long term! A strong ridge of high
pressure has settled in over the Southern Plains helping to keep
Southeast Texas hot with only slight chances of rainfall. Thanks
to low level moisture and daytime heating, there will be a daily
chance of some sea breeze induced showers and thunderstorms mainly
along and south of I-10. These storms shouldn`t produce more than
a quick 0.5" of rain before moving further inland or dissipating.
The main weather story through next weekend will be the
potentially dangerous heat that is building across the region.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s inland
with the immediate coast staying in the upper 80s to low 90s. Add
in the humidity, afternoon max heat indices will be in the
105-110 degree range through the weekend. Heat Advisory will be
likely for some or all of the area at times. There won`t be much
of a cool down either during the overnight hours either with
minimum temperatures only in the upper 70s to low 80s for much of
the region.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR prevailing through the rest of today. VCSH possible this
afternoon with the sea breeze. Any activity should wane by evening
hours. MVFR CIGS develop at terminals generally west of I-45
corridor overnight tonight. Brief IFR CIGs possible from around
12Z to 14Z for those sites as well. Expect improvement to VFR by
mid to late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low
seas will persist through the upcoming weekend. There will a
slight chance of isolated showers or storms each morning and
afternoon. Tides today and tomorrow will again be around 3 to
3.5ft above MLLW, so some minor coastal flooding is possible -
mainly near along the more susceptible sections of the Bolivar
Peninsula. So, the Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect for
there. The high risk of strong rip currents is also expected to
continue through the next several days.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  76  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  94  77  95  77 /  20   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  88  81 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler