884
FXUS64 KHGX 101153
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Increased risk of fires starting today and Saturday with low
  humidities in place.

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters
  through this morning with elevated winds/seas anticipated. Water
  levels will run above normal levels.

- No rain in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Mid/upper ridge stretching from Mexico northward through Texas will
hold tight for the next week - so mentionable rain chances won`t be
found in the forecast unfortunately. The good news: a dry airmass
and mostly clear skies will lead to some pleasant evenings,
overnight, and morning temps the next couple days. The not so good
news: these low RH`s will allow for some fast fire starts if
initiated.

Once southeast winds resume in the low levels Saturday night, we`ll
see a slow upward tick in dewpoints and overnight lows heading into
next week. With plenty of sun and subsidence aloft, daytime readings
will continue to run above normal. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions at all sites with VFR prevailing through the
period. Winds will be light out of the NE during the day, becoming
light and variable overnight. NE winds will return during the day
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Similar to last night, look for a fairly quick increase in
ENE wind speeds that`ll fill in across the coastal waters in the
next couple hours. Have advisories and/or caution flags up into the
9a-noon timeframe, then winds/seas should begin trending back down.

Water levels/tides will be running above normal levels due to the
moon phase and easterly fetch. They should be peaking in the 3.5-
4.0ft MLLW range around the evening high tide cycles thru the
weekend at Gulf facing locations. Since high tide has passed already
tonight, we`ll be canceling the current Coastal Flood Advisory
early. Given that winds/seas should be subsiding, suspect that
going forward we might just see less of a beach versus a more of
the traditional and more impactful coastal flood threat, but will
let the day crew make a decision whether a Coastal Flood Advisory
of a Beach Hazards Statement would be a better fit in terms of
messaging.

A light onshore flow should resume Saturday night and continue into
next week. Looking like favorable marine wx conditions. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Daytime minimum RH`s should be around 25% inland and 30-40$ coast
today. Winds will below Red Flag Warning Criteria. That said, fuels
remain dry and conditions are favorable for fire starts should
initiation occur. The Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Danger index is
in the high-extreme territory for most of the area today. RH`s
should be just a touch higher on Saturday, but still relatively low
all things considered. Please exercise caution when working with
open flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry
spots. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  63  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  72  85  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47