171
FXUS64 KHGX 250828
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Broad mid-upper ridging across sw/s parts of the country will
dominate regional wx keeping temps slightly above seasonable norms.
Didn`t make any changes to the inherited heat advisory today.
Continued warm tonight with lows 75-82 and on Wed with highs again
in the 90s.

In regards to rain chances, there are isolated-scattered showers
beginning to show up on the radar scope in the Matagorda Bay area
and adjacent coastal waters. This is generally where higher PW`s
will be be situated this morning. GOES Total PW product loop shows a
tongue of drier air trying to filter in further to the east. This,
combined with subsidence should keep activity elsewhere isolated at
best around peak heating. Things get a touch more interesting Wed.
Ridging expands a bit further northward into the Rockies, putting us
in more of a northerly flow aloft. Guidance indicates we might see
an embedded vort lobe try to sneak into the area late in the day
tomorrow. A mix of guidance (ECMWF and some of the HREF members)
suggest the potential for some sct tstms to develop and sag into
portions of the area late in the afternoon/evening. Others aren`t as
bullish with subsidence winning that battle. But it`s worth keeping
an eye on considering distinct inverted-v fcst soundings indicating
the potential for gusty winds/downbursts should any stronger cells
emerge.

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The long term forecast will be largely be dominated by ridging
spanning the Southern CONUS, which will result hot conditions
reminiscent of the typical Texas Summer. On Thursday, the upper
level ridge will be centered about the Desert Southwest over
Western TX/Southern NM. Though, ensemble means suggest that the
midlevel ridge will weaken during this period, allowing for weak
impulses to round the peripheral of the ridge and pass over SE
Texas. PWs in excess of 1.75" indicate plentiful moisture will be
available, and weak capping should further support the develop of
afternoon showers/thunderstorms with daytime heating. Global
ensembles and the latest suite of deterministic model runs
indicate that the midlevel ridge will amplify over the Southeast
CONUS/ArkLaTex Region heading into the weekend. 850mb temperatures
are progged to gradually creep up as well, all be it very
gradually, which is reflected in the upward trend of multi-run
max temperature values. Despite laking forcing aloft, sea breeze
support looks more favorable on Sunday/Monday, which could help
initiate afternoon showers/storms along the sea breeze. On a more
minor note, NASA`s GMAO suggests the possibility of a Saharan
Dust Plume passing across SE Texas on portions of Friday/Saturday.
This may result in hazy-white sky conditions during this period.

By in large, we`re still looking at hot conditions through the
beginning of next week, with highs in the upper 80s near the
coast to upper 90s inland. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Heat indices during the afternoon will range from
around 100-108 at their peak, with isolated higher values
possible. The Heat Risk for those participating in leisurely
outdoor activities will be Moderate (level 3/5) each day. WBGT
values suggest that those participating in strenuous outdoor
activities may feel Major (level 4/5) heat stress during the
hottest parts of the day. Heat Advisories could be warranted
during this period. Regardless, the oppressive nature of Texas
summers still warrants the need to practice common heat safety
tactics. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear
lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from
the sun.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

With the exception of some spotty MVFR ceilings in the 12-16z
timeframe, VFR conditions should prevail. Can`t totally rule out an
isolated late afternoon tstm CXO southward in the late afternoon,
but chances much too low to include the mention in the TAFs.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated
over the next several days.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  78  96  78 /  10   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)  95  79  96  79 /  20  20  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  89  83  90  82 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03